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Predicting the 20 Most Expensive Transfers of the 2015 Summer Window

Allan JiangMay 5, 2015

Here are predictions for the 20 most expensive signings of the 2015 summer transfer window.

These 20 footballers, including the likes of Gareth Bale, Ilkay Gundogan and Memphis Depay, will be ranked according to their estimated transfer fee.

The estimated transfer fee is determined subjectively based on performance this season, potential ability, hype and stock.

Honourable Mentions

German central midfielder Johannes Geis, 21, Mainz | Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ19.5/ยฃ14.4 million.

Ghanaian left-back Abdul Rahman Baba, 20, Augsburg | Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ19/ยฃ14 million.

French left attacking midfielder Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco, 21, Monaco | Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ18.5/ยฃ13.6 million.

English centre-forward Saido Berahino, 21, West Bromwich Albion | Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ18/ยฃ13.3 million.

Swiss goalkeeper Roman Burki, 24, Freiburg | Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ17.5/ยฃ12.9 million.

20. Ilkay Gundogan (Borussia Dortmund)

1 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ20/ยฃ14.7 million.

German central midfielderย Ilkay Gundogan, 24, has signalled his intentions to leaveย Borussia Dortmund by refusing to extend his contract.

Lingering doubts over his long-term fitness, average performances and his free agent status in 2016 means you should expect Borussia Dortmund to sell Gundogan in the summer transfer window before his Bosman rights can be exercised.

In theย Bundesliga transfer market,ย โ‚ฌ20 million is a substantial investment, but nowadays it is a price you see major clubs pay for squad players.

Gundogan is currently placed at No. 114 out of 203 footballers in Kicker'sย Bundesliga player rankings.

19. Allan Marques (Udinese)

2 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ20/ยฃ14.7 million.

Udinese's Brazilian central midfielderย Allan Marques, 24, is one of the best footballers in Europe.ย 

However,ย Udinese need to lockย Allan down because his current deal runs until 2016.

If not, he will be leaving this summer window before he is eligible toย exerciseย his Bosman right to a free transfer.

Allan is a complete footballer who is a ball-winning machine and has made significant gains when he is in the attacking half.

Thinkย Arturo Vidal circaย Bayer Leverkusen.

18. Jordan Amavi (Nice)

3 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ20.4/ยฃ15 million.

Nice's French left-backย Jordan Amavi, 21, is a legitimate alternative toย Ricardo Rodriguez, whose transfer value could be too pricey for potential suitors.

Amavi is forceful and at times a gung-ho defender.

This leads to him winning back the ball at a frenzied rate (4 tackles and 4.5 interceptions per 90 minutes), though he is an easy target for yellow cards (four successive bookings and counting).

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17. Morgan Schneiderlin (Southampton)

4 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ23.1/ยฃ17 million.

Southampton's French central midfielderย Morgan Schneiderlin, 25, is an all-round Premier League-proven footballer.ย 

A sturdy tackler and a passing outlet,ย Schneiderlin was at times a goal threat. This suggests he can play as a No. 6 and a No. 8.ย 

What could adversely impactย Schneiderlin's transfer stock is rehabilitating from aย knee ligament injury, which might swayย Southampton to field offers for his signature.

16. Salomon Rondon (FC Zenit)

5 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ25/ยฃ18.4 million.

FC Zenit'sย Venezuelan centre-forwardย Salomon Rondon, 25, could be a backup No. 9 target for major clubs.ย 

Rondon can finish with either feet and is an aerial threat.ย 

He has scored 11 goals from 23 Russian Premier League games this season, which is impressive when you consider he has only started 65.2 per cent of games he has been involved in this season.ย 

However, there are concerns overย Rondon's consistency as he tends to go missing for stretches of the season.

In addition, he was wayward in the UEFA Champions League, scoring once and shooting on target 22.2 per cent of the time.

15. Yacine Brahimi (Porto)

6 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ27.1/ยฃ20 million.

Porto's Algerian left-forward Yacine Brahimi, 25, is a mercurial take-on specialist.

He provided instant impact duringย Porto's UEFA Champions League campaign, scoring five goals and providing three assists in nine games.

Givenย Brahimi is approaching his late 20s,ย Porto need to decide if he can replicate his UEFA Champions League heroics next season.

If not, cash in beforeย Brahimi is exposed as an erratic and inconsistent highlight reel player.

14. Felipe Anderson (Lazio)

7 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ30/ยฃ22.1 million.

Lazio's Brazilian right/left forwardย Felipe Anderson, 22, needs to thankย Filip Djordjevic.

Pressuringย Massimo Gobbi into a mistimed clearance,ย Djordjevic retrieved the ball and played inย Anderson for an easy tap-in during Lazio's 2-1 win over Parma.

It had taken Anderson 12 games to score his first Serie A goal of the season.ย 

Since then,ย Anderson's class is why he's separatingย himself from the rest of the players on the field.

13. Paulo Dybala (Palermo)

8 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ33.9/ยฃ25 million.

It is a matter of when, not if, Palermo's Argentine centre-forward Paulo Dybala, 21, will be sold in the summer transfer window.ย 

Dybala's relationship withย Palermo presidentย Maurizio Zamparini is damaged, which suggests sentiment will play no part in keeping theย burgeoningย star.

Dybala has scored 13 goals and provided 10 assists in 33 Serie A games this season, though his inconsistency is still a red flag.ย 

Remember, he was a bust entering this season.

12. David De Gea (Manchester United)

9 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ33.9/ยฃ25 million.

Manchester United's Spanish goalkeeperย David De Gea, 24, is better, younger and an upgrade overย Iker Casillas.

Hypothetically speaking, it makes sense why Real Madrid would want to replaceย Casillas with Deย Gea.

  • Once-in-a-generation goalkeeper.
  • From Madrid.ย 
  • Natural successor toย Casillas.
  • Has La Liga experience having played forย Atletico Madrid.

Deย Gea'sย hesitancyย in extending his contract atย Manchester United could foreshadow a big move to Real Madrid.

11. Santi Cazorla (Arsenal)

10 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ35/ยฃ25.8 million.

Arsenal's Spanish midfielderย Santi Cazorla, 30, still has re-sell value.ย 

He is a crafty footballer able to play as a No. 6, No. 8, No. 10 and No. 11.

Scoring seven goals and providing nine assists from 33 Premier League games this season,ย Cazorla has been a contributor toย Arsenal.

He has been playing at an elite level since hisย Recreativo Huelva days.

Aleksandr Hleb, Emmanuel Petit, Kolo Toure, Marc Overmars, Thierry Henry and Thomas Vermaelen are examples ofย Arsenal managerย Arsene Wenger offloading experienced footballers before their transfer stock diminished.

10. Memphis Depay (PSV Eindhoven)

11 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ40/ยฃ29.5 million.

PSV Eindhoven's Dutch left forwardย Memphis Depay, 21, isย Cristiano Ronaldo-like in theย Eredivisie.

Memphis shoots from all angles, he dominates opposingย Eredivisie defenders and is a quasi-No. 9.

Scoring 21 goals and providing four assists from 28ย Eredivisie games this season,ย Memphis should be on the radar of most major clubs.

9. Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund)

12 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ40.7/ยฃ30 million.

Jurgen Klopp calling time on hisย Borussia Dortmund tenure provides a natural exit route for German centre-backย Mats Hummels, 26, who has been at the club since 2009.

Injuries,ย Borussia Dortmund falling apart andย Hummels constantly playing catch-up is why he was not at his best this season.

Hummelsย is currently placed at No. 65 out of 203 footballers inย Kicker'sย Bundesliga player rankings.

A major club will bank onย Hummels' body of work rather than his recent form.

8. Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim)

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Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ40.7/ยฃ30 million.

Hoffenheim's Brazilian central attacking midfielderย Roberto Firmino, 23, has regressed this season. ย 

Firmino has the technical ability ofย Ronaldinho and the daring nature ofย Djalminha.

There is more talent inย Firmino's toe than in Thomas Muller's entire body.ย Yet Muller is a serial winner, a high football IQ player and dependable.

For whatever inexplicable reason,ย Firmino will go missing for several games, then rectify it with a world-class performance.

Firmino's extraordinary upside should see a suitor lodge a substantial bid, even though there are red flags with his concentration and inconsistency.ย 

Heย is currently placed at No. 49 out of 203 footballers inย Kicker'sย Bundesliga player rankings.

7. Ricardo Rodriguez (Wolfsburg)

14 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ45/ยฃ33.2 million.

Wolfsburg's Swiss left-backย Ricardo Rodriguez, 22, has all the attributes of a world-class footballer.ย 

Big motor, set-piece specialist, plus he is productive in the attacking and defensive half.ย 

Backed by Volkswagen, Wolfsburg don't need the cash, but here is a hypothetical scenario:

  • Sellย Rodriguez forย โ‚ฌ45 million and invest inย Abdul Rahman Baba, who could catch up toย Rodriguez in terms of development.ย 
  • During a seven-game run in the Bundesliga,ย Rodriguez was out for five games due to injury.ย 
  • His defensive positioning at times is lax.ย 
  • Currently placed at No. 44 out of 203 footballers in Kicker's Bundesliga player rankings.

6. Granit Xhaka (Borussia Monchengladbach)

15 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ47.5/ยฃ35 million.

Borussia Monchengladbach's Swiss central midfielderย Granit Xhaka, 22, could develop into one of the best footballers of his generation.

From the outspoken outsider who once criticised theย Borussia Monchengladbach dressing room,ย Xhaka now leads by example.

Persistently putting his body on the line is whyย Xhaka is a dominant presence in midfield

When he is in possession, he is a passing outlet.ย 

He is a big reason whyย Borussia Monchengladbach are the third-best team in theย Bundesliga this season.

Xhaka is currentlyย placed at No. 34 out of 203 footballers in Kicker's Bundesliga player rankings.

He is outperforming the rumouredย โ‚ฌ20/ยฃ14.7 million release clause in his contract, which comes into play in 2017, perย Stephan Uersfeld at ESPN FC.

5. Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon)

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Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ50/ยฃ36.9 million.

Lyon's French centre-forwardย Alexandre Lacazette, 23, is young, he scores, creates, gets past defenders and is one of the most productive footballers this season.

He has accumulated 33 total goals (27 goals, six assists) in 31 Ligue 1 games.

Barring a career-debilitating injury, you should expect Lacazette to become a valid challenger for the European Golden Shoe when he moves to a league with a higher coefficient ranking.

4. Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)

17 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ54.3/ยฃ40 million.

Liverpool's English centre/right/left forwardย Raheem Sterling, 20, has all the characteristics which suggest he will be an inflated transfer:

  • English.
  • Overhyped.
  • Potential over productivity.
  • Embroiled in a contract dispute.

Sterling's seven goals and seven assists do not substantiate whateverย ludicrousย wages he is demanding.ย 

But he has a valid counter-point to his inconsistency: He has been shifted all over the field.

Ifย Liverpool cannot resolveย Sterling's contract issues, then he will be offloaded to the highest bidder.

3. Koke (Atletico Madrid)

18 of 20

Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ61.1/ยฃ45 million.

Atletico Madrid's Spanish left winger/central midfielderย Koke, 23, is a world-class midfielder.

If you are judging him as a midfielder, he has no flaws: Wins back the ball, is an incisive passer, can play in multiple positions and is tactically disciplined.ย 

Toย Sheikย Mansour,ย โ‚ฌ61.1 million is the equivalent of a $50 dollar note to the man on the street.

Assuming Manchester City want toย revitalise their ageing and underperforming squad,ย Koke should be one of their top summer transfer window targets.

2. Kevin De Bruyne (Wolfsburg)

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Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ67.8/ยฃ50 million.

Wolfsburg's Belgian central/left attacking midfielderย Kevin De Bruyne, 23, is prone to turning over the ball, but he is a centre-forward's best friend.

De Bruyne can make every pass in the book and he is willing to take risks to get his assist.ย 

Just imagine aย De Bruyne-Sergio Aguero partnership atย Manchester City.

De Bruyneย is currentlyย placed at No. 3 out of 203 footballers inย Kicker's Bundesliga player rankings.

1. Gareth Bale (Real Madrid)

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Estimated Transfer Fee: โ‚ฌ88.2/ยฃ65 million.

Welsh right forwardย Gareth Bale, 25, is on course to be the biggest waste of money in football history.ย 

Nine players have outscored (14 goals plus)ย Bale (13) in La Liga.ย In terms of assists, again nine players have provided more goals (nine plus) than Bale (eight).

Bale's defending has deteriorated drastically (quite sad considering he was once a left-back with elite upside), and he is too reliant on kick-and-run.ย 

Look atย Lionel Messi,ย Neymar andย Luis Suarezโ€”they play for each other.ย 

Whereas Cristianoย Ronaldo wants his team-mates to play for him only.ย Bale is a luxury player who takes away goals fromย Ronaldo.

Their relationship will only function ifย Bale creates forย Ronaldo in his quest to be theย Pele of his era.

Beforeย Bale's transfer stock takes anย irreparableย hit, Real Madrid should cut bait and hope a Premier League club is willing to gamble on his past performances forย Tottenham Hotspur.

When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.com.

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