NBA Draft 2015: Updated Round 1 Mock Draft, Analysis of Riskiest Prospects
If the NBA draft was easy, then anybody could do it. No general manager wants to be the guy who selects the next Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi.
Any draft—be it in the NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL or MLS—is an inexact science. All of the scouting and collegiate accolades in the world can't guarantee that a player will deliver on his potential. Maybe an injury curtails his career, or maybe he's just not good enough.
Plenty of players in the 2015 NBA draft pool have some level of bust potential, even guys like Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson.
Below are three of the riskier stars to have thrown their names into the draft hat. The likelihood of their being selected early and their bust potential make them headaches to forecast in terms of a long-term NBA career.
Mock Draft
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Latvia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Myles Turner, PF/C, Texas |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Delon Wright, PG/SG, Utah |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Joseph Young, SG, Oregon |
Riskiest Prospects
No. 10, Miami Heat: Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin
Few players in this year's draft class did more in college than Frank Kaminsky. He helped get the Wisconsin Badgers to back-to-back Final Fours, including a runner-up finish in 2015. The senior also collected the John R. Wooden Award.
You know who else did all of that, pretty much? Tyler Hansbrough.
Kaminsky is a different player than Hansbrough, but the example illustrates how college success doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA.
Kaminsky's outside shooting should ensure that he has a role in the NBA, but his post play might hamper his overall effectiveness. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman summed up this line of criticism well in his April breakdown of the Badgers star:
"And though Kaminsky's feet are nimble, they aren't the quickest. His best move is the spin off a line drive—a move that highlights his body control, as opposed to his burst. Though Kaminsky is a threat to face up, he lacks a blow-by turn-the-corner step.
Defense is another area where Kaminsky's potential may be limited. He's not exactly a cement wall down low. His 4.5 percent block percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, would rank alongside some of the lowest block percentages recorded by a first-round center over the last 10 years.
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A lot of Kaminsky's risk depends on where he's drafted. If he cracks the top 10, then that's some serious gambling by whichever team drafts him. Should he fall a little more toward the middle of the first round, then it won't matter as much if he simply becomes a solid role player/rotation guy.
No. 13, Phoenix Suns: Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas
Don't count Sporting News' Mike DeCourcy as a fan of Kelly Oubre Jr. He has made no bones about the fact that he feels Oubre needs more seasoning in college before making the jump to the NBA:
What should scare teams about the former Kansas Jayhawk is that his offensive game needs to grow a lot once he hits the NBA. DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony feels that Oubre possesses a good jumper but that his flaws are too big to ignore:
"As a shot-creator, Oubre is very much a work in progress still. His ball-handling skills are rudimentary, almost entirely confined to his stronger (left) hand, and with a fairly high dribble that slows him down off the bounce and neutralizes his excellent natural tools to a certain extent.
Oubre doesn't compensate for that with a tremendous feel for creating offense for his teammates, as his 8% assist percentage ranks last among wing players in our Top-100 prospect rankings. He is a reluctant passer at times, but also doesn't have a great understanding of time, score, and situations at this stage, which hopefully will improve as his career moves on. While defensively he should be able to defend both wing positions in the NBA, offensively he is more of a small forward right now due to his average shot-creation ability for himself and others.
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There may not be a more boom-or-bust guy than Oubre. If he does reach his potential, he could be an All-Star. If he struggles, though, things could get really bad, and the GM who drafts him might end up with serious egg on his face.
As long as Oubre remains locked in on every trip down the court and works to improve his in-game intelligence, he shouldn't have a problem. His coaches can obviously help him along the way, but a lot will be on Oubre to become the best version of himself.
No. 16, Boston Celtics: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
Kevon Looney is another classic case of a guy you draft largely for his potential. In his one season with the UCLA Bruins, he averaged just 11.6 points but a much healthier 9.2 rebounds a game. Those numbers aren't terrible but also don't blow you away, especially for a player who's almost certainly a first-rounder.
CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie covered some of Looney's bigger flaws but still feels confident that the he'll provide first-round value:
"Some are concerned about his lack of explosive athleticism, and others have mentioned to me that his shot could be a work in progress due to how long it takes to get off. Still, I have him at No. 14 on my board, as I like the fact that he doesn't need the ball to be an effective player, and also has some defensive versatility against 3s and 4s because of his length and lateral mobility.
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The big thing with Looney is developing a consistent jumper. He was never much of an offensive star at UCLA, with ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton highlighting how his solid three-point percentage (.415) can be a bit deceiving:
"Looney is a particularly raw offensive player. While he shot an impressive-looking 41.5 percent from 3-point range, that came on just 53 attempts, and his 25.7 percent accuracy on 2-pointers away from the rim (per Hoop-Math.com) is probably a better indicator of his shooting ability.
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In the same article, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla argued that Looney's best destination would be a team on which he wouldn't have to contribute right away. Throwing him in the deep end right away might make Looney sink to the bottom.
Looney is a very good defender and rebounder, but you could see a bad team grabbing him too early and asking him to do too much in his rookie season.
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