Is Derek Anderson a Pro Bowl Quarterback?

Over the past year there’s been plenty of debate about who should be the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn. One of the biggest defenses of Anderson and his credibility as a starter is that he was a Pro Bowler in 2007.

The following is an examination of Anderson and his Pro Bowl year of 2007 and how it relates to the past 10 years of his fellow Pro Bowl signal callers. Before I continue, let’s remember that Anderson was a Pro Bowl alternate who was sent to Hawaii only because Tom Brady decline to play.

Let’s look at Anderson’s stats from 2007:

16 games

15 games started

298 completions

527 attempts

56.5 percent completion

3,787 yards

29 TD

19 INT

3.6 percent interceptions

82.5 passer rating

14 sacks

Now let’s take a look at the average stats from Pro Bowlers from 1999 to 2008:

15.39 games

15.14 games started

300.05 completions

484.43 attempts

61.7 percent completion

3,599.5 yards

24.23 TD

12.32 INT

2.56 percent interceptions

90.53 passer rating

28.25 sacks

To Anderson’s credit, he threw for almost 200 more yards and almost five more touchdowns than the average Pro Bowler over the past ten years. However, he accomplished this with 43 more attempts than the average, equal to almost two more games worth of passing.

Another thing to notice is how Anderson was sacked less than half the amount of the ten year average. This could mean a couple of things. First, Anderson could have had excellent protection, which he generally did throughout 2007. But it also means that Anderson was quick to throw the ball and not take sacks whenever pressure surrounded him.

Further, the three most damaging stats for Anderson are his low passer rating, high interception percentage, and most of all, low completion percentage.

Out of 31 quarterbacks and 74 separate Pro Bowl seasons since 1999, Anderson’s completion percentage ranks fifth worst behind Michael Vick (2002, 04, 05) and Vince Young’s anemic 51.5 percent in 2006.

It’s important to remember that both Vick and Young are not the pure passer type that Anderson is, so one would expect their passing to not be as refined. Still, Vick averaged 758 yards rushing over his three Pro Bowl seasons and added a total of 17 touchdowns as well. Young totaled 552 yards rushing with seven rushing touchdowns in 2006.

Derek Anderson’s 3.6 percent interception rate (or one interception per 27.7 attempts) was eleventh worst behind Vick (2004), Delhomme (2005), Young (2006), Bulger (2003), Romo (2006, '07), Favre (2003, '08) and Warner (2000, '01).

We already know Vick and Young brought an added dimension of running that Anderson lacks. Delhomme’s interception rate was a tenth of a percent higher than Anderson, but Delhomme completed 60 percent of his passes and his passer rating was five points higher.

Bulger’s interception rate was 4.1 in 2003 and his passer rating 1.1 lower than Anderson, but Bulger also threw for more yards and had a completion percentage seven points higher as well.

Romo’s interception average was two tenths higher than Anderson but Romo also averaged a 14 point higher passer rating and an eight point higher completion percentage.

Brett Favre’s interception average was seven-tenths higher than Anderson, but Favre’s completion percentage averaged nine points better with a three point higher passer rating. Warner’s interception average was also seven-tenths higher than Anderson, but Warner averaged a 12 point higher completion percentage and a 13 point higher passer rating.

Derek Anderson’s passer rating of 82.5 was twelfth worst behind Brunell (1999), Stewart (2001), McNabb (2000, '03), Vick (all three years), McNair (2005), Young (2006), Bulger (2003), and Collins (2008).

McNabb and Stewart averaged over 500 yards rushing while maintaining higher completion percentages and much lower interception averages.

Brunell had a much lower interception average and a completion percentage 2.2 points higher than Anderson. McNair’s Pro Bowl season netted a completion percentage 4.8 points higher and an interception percent 1.3 points lower than Anderson. Kerry Collins had an interception percent 1.9 points lower than Anderson as well as a completion percentage 1.8 points higher.

What does this all mean? I think these stats clearly show that when Anderson is judged against his fellow Pro Bowl peers, he inevitably falls short. A good case could be made that Anderson’s 2007 Pro Bowl season was the worst of the last ten years, with possibly Bulger in 2003 or Collins in 2008 being at the bottom as well.

Anderson’s Pro Bowl season isn’t anymore impressive when you see that he only beat one team with a winning record in 2007. Those 10 victories also came against teams that finished the year with a paltry 50-94 record.

The problem is that Anderson was wildly inaccurate during his Pro Bowl season and has remained erratic throughout his career. Unless you’re a dual threat quarterback, possessing a 54.6 percent completion percentage is flat out pedestrian and certainly not Pro Bowl worthy.

What’s more, of the current quarterbacks in the NFL with more than a year’s experience, Derek Anderson is tied with Luke McCown for the worst career interception percentage at 3.8. Again, that’s not something to really hang your hat on.

So what do we make of Anderson? Is he a legitimate starter in the NFL or is he riding the success of a fluke year from two seasons ago? He’s still pretty young and has room for improvement as most players progress in their late twenties, but I think there is a strong history and solid case against Anderson being a dependable quarterback.

For starters, it will be difficult for Anderson to shake his turnover happy and inaccurate arm. Some may say that quarterbacks eventually work through these problems and get better, but that’s not taking into account that Anderson has always been this way going back to his days at Oregon State, and that we’ve never seen any signs of improvement.

Dating back to his days as a Beaver and continuing to today, Anderson has compiled the following completion percentages:

2002-47 percent

2003-51.2 percent

2004-54.2 percent

2006-56.4 percent

2007-56.5 percent

2008-50.2 percent

Moreover, Anderson threw 57 interceptions in 43 games at Oregon State while tossing 35 interceptions in 31 games thus far for the Browns, of which 27 games were starts. Not surprisingly, these interception rates are virtually identical.

You’d be hard pressed to find a quarterback who was inaccurate and threw a lot of interceptions in college and early in their career in the NFL, but then suddenly reversed this trend and somehow corrected these problems. It just doesn’t happen.

I’ve made it no secret that I’ve favored Brady Quinn over Anderson in the Browns quarterback competition, but in my mind, there was never much question about who would prevail under a true and fair competition.

Other than a strong arm, what positive attributes does Derek Anderson possess? Or to put it another way, what attributes does he possess that Quinn doesn’t have more of? What about Anderson’s performance last year or this preseason makes someone believe that he’ll be more accurate and commit fewer turnovers?

So when someone tells me that the Browns should start Anderson because he’s been to a Pro Bowl and has a strong arm that can stretch the field, it means very little to me given the evidence before us.

The time to give Anderson the benefit of the doubt because he went to a Pro Bowl and has a strong arm is over. Thus far this preseason he’s shown us nothing new. He’s capable of throwing darts when given the time in the pocket, but he still consistently throws ridiculously inaccurate passes, looks shaky in the pocket, and has a hard time checking down to receivers.

The time has also come for Eric Mangini to name Brady Quinn the undisputed starter for the Browns in 2009. And count me among the people who wish to see Anderson traded as well.

Cleveland simply has too many weaknesses to hang on to Anderson if they can get something decent back in a trade and it’s not fair to either player to have to look over their shoulder when things go bad from time to time.

This preseason was the first in which Quinn was able to battle Anderson head on and many believed the competition to be relatively close. After last night’s game against Tennessee this is no longer the case.

Anderson played decently and finished seven for eleven with 77 yards, including a pass that was almost a touchdown. Still, he was unable to assert himself and continued to look like more of a backup with a couple balls being nearly intercepted.

However, Quinn got the start and proved without a doubt that he is the Browns number one quarterback with an eleven for fifteen, 128 yard, and one touchdown performance.

 Heading into the last week of preseason, Anderson has completed 57.6 percent of his passes and thrown two interceptions with no touchdowns, compiling a dingy 51.28 passer rating.

On the other hand, Quinn has completed 67.7 percent of his passes with one touchdown and one interception, compiling a solid 86.08 passer rating. Can we agree that one quarterback has stepped it up?

Up until last night, we’ve been told by numerous media sources that the Cleveland Browns quarterback job was too close to call.

The funny thing is, Brady Quinn is one Braylon Edwards dropped touchdown pass away from compiling a 115 passer rating this preseason. Which, by the way, would make Quinn number one in the NFL. Is that good enough for Browns fans? Or should Cleveland stay with the Pro Bowl quarterback?