Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors: 2nd-Round Analysis and Predictions
Klay Thompson scored 26 of his game-high 42 points the last time the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies met, helping build a 22-point halftime lead that withstood a late rally by Marc Gasol and Co.
"We didn't compete," Gasol told reporters after the April 13 contest. "I don't know if everybody realized how important that game was."
Had Memphis won the game, it might have secured a No. 2 or No. 3 seed and avoided these Warriors until the conference finals. Instead, the Grizzlies now find themselves up against a team that finished the regular season with a league-leading 67 wins, a team that led the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets by 11 games.
This time, the Grizzlies had better compete.
Golden State enters the series on the heels of sweeping the young New Orleans Pelicans, a four-game warm-up that suggested head coach Steve Kerr's Warriors weren't a regular-season fluke. Memphis, meanwhile, took advantage of the short-handed Portland Trail Blazers in a relatively one-sided five-game series.
Both clubs have momentum and a title in their sights. That should make for a tightly contested series despite what appears on paper to be a pretty significant talent advantage for the Warriors. Remember, Memphis is a well-tested playoff team, and it's adept at controlling the pace. Throw in a couple of grind-it-out affairs, and this series could well be up for grabs.
Head-to-Head Record: 2-1, Warriors
| Date | Result | Note |
| Dec. 16 | 105-98 Grizzlies | Grizz hold Curry to 1-of-10 from the arc |
| March 27 | 107-84 Warriors | Curry posts 38 points, 10 assists |
| April 13 | 111-107 Warriors | Thompson drops 42 points |
Series Schedule
| Game | Time | Location | TV |
| Game 1 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ABC |
| Game 2 | 10:30 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | TNT |
| Game 3 | 8 p.m. ET | Memphis, TN | ABC |
| Game 4 | 9:30 p.m. ET | Memphis, TN | TNT |
| Game 5* | TBA | Oakland, CA | TNT |
| Game 6* | TBA | Memphis, TN | ESPN |
| Game 7* | TBA | Oakland, CA | TBA |
Key Season Stats
| Team | Home Record | Road Record | ORtg (Rank) | DRtg (Rank) | Net Rtg (Rank) |
| Grizzlies | 31-10 | 24-17 | 103.1 (13) | 99.9 (4) | 3.1 (11) |
| Warriors | 39-2 | 28-13 | 109.7 (2) | 98.2 (1) | 11.4 (1) |
Grizzlies' X-Factor: Tony Allen
He's one of the league's premier defensive specialists, and he'll just so happen to spend time guarding the best backcourt in basketball. Offense-defense matchups don't get much better than this. There's just no way Allen will contain one or both of the Splash Brothers. His job will be to make them work for contested shots, and each one he forces will be a small victory.
Warriors' X-Factor: Draymond Green
Green has succeeded against larger competition all season, but he'll have his hands full against the meaty likes of Zach Randolph (6'9", 260 lbs). The latter is a master of using his mass and verticality to score in the low and high post alike. But situations like this are what earned Green runner-up Defensive Player of the Year notoriety. He could cement that reputation with a strong showing against Memphis' bigs.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions
1. Will Golden State's bench produce?
In the first round, it didn't—at least not to the degree it probably should have. As NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper recently noted, "Shaun Livingston was inconsistent, Marreese Speights was barely noticeable, Andre Iguodala shot 31 percent, and David Lee didn't play because of injury."
Iguodala's ability to score and create for others is particularly key for the second unit. He's the guy who's supposed to energize this team on both ends of the floor when the starters take a seat. And that kind of presence is virtually nonnegotiable against a team that plays all 48 minutes.
2. How much can Mike Conley give?
The Grizzlies have never needed Conley like they do now. With Curry doing all sorts of MVP things for the Warriors, Memphis needs production and defense alike from the point guard spot. Unfortunately, it's very possible Conley will continue to miss time after having facial surgery to repair an injury he suffered in Game 3 against the Portland Trail Blazers.
There's still no timetable for Conley's return and even less sense of how effective he might be when and if he does return. Good as Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes have been in Conley's stead, they probably won't be enough against Golden State.
3. Will Curry and Thompson take over?
It's distinctly possible. Prior to Thompson's 42-point outburst, Curry totaled 38 points and 10 assists against the Grizzlies in March—and that was with a healthy Conley on the floor. Good as Memphis' team defense is, it's proved insufficient against Golden State's electric backcourt offense. That's especially discouraging because Conley, Allen and Courtney Lee are all excellent defenders.
It matters not against these Warriors, however. They score and make plays against anyone. Curry and Thompson are particularly unguardable on account of their abilities to score off the dribble, move without the ball and create space for their shots. There's a reason they always seem to be so open, and there may be nothing the Grizzlies can do about it.
Why the Warriors Will Win
Even the Grizzlies can't stop this offensive train. The Warriors have found ways to run their offense against Memphis so far this season, so the adjustments are Memphis' to make. That was especially evident during Golden State's 107-84 victory in March, the one in which Curry dropped 38 points.
"I think we executed offensively, for most of that game, the best we have in awhile," Curry told reporters after the contest. "Obviously, we did what we did on defense, but the ball was moving all around and guys were making plays and it was just fun to watch and fun to play."
No one should be having fun against Memphis' defense. That's just not supposed to happen. And if it continues to happen, this could be a short series.
Why the Grizzlies Will Win
No team is better prepared to gut out some close games against the fearsome Warriors. If Memphis can keep the games within striking distance, it has at least one advantage—its ability to feed the post. The Grizzlies can fight for high-percentage shots in a way few other clubs can—including Golden State.
That's all Memphis can really hope for. The Grizzlies aren't going to blow Golden State out, but they're adept at slowing the pace and securing quality looks. They exert maximum effort while continuing to play smart under head coach Dave Joerger. In a gritty playoff game or two, that could be the difference.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors in five games
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