Can Memphis Grizzlies Upset Golden State Warriors Without Mike Conley?
It’s a harsh truth: No NBA team that isn’t 100 percent healthy can defeat the Golden State Warriors in a seven-game series. Bad news for the Memphis Grizzlies: This is the exact situation they find themselves in heading into the next round.
In addition to playing through a painful foot issue, Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley Jr. suffered a gruesome injury in the first round, fracturing his face and undergoing surgery that necessitated the insertion of metal plates and screws into his left eye socket.
"Mike Conley in the Grind House. Conley says he had plates inserted in his face. #GetWellSoon pic.twitter.com/s1VnO8HkFJ
— Bleacher Report NBA (@BR_NBA) April 30, 2015"
It’s tough. There’s no definitive timetable for Conley’s return, but he hasn’t been ruled out entirely, either, per Ronald Tillery of The Commercial Appeal. Conley believes he’ll play in the series, but it’s difficult to picture him doing so at a high level. He simply can’t be as aggressive as he wants to be.
The fear of getting hit above the shoulders on forays into the paint will linger in the back of his head. He won’t be able to recklessly chase any of Golden State’s guards off screens when they don’t have the ball, and a moment’s hesitation against that team is an immediate death sentence.
The situation is devastating for the Grizzlies, who absolutely need Conley’s two-way impact to put a dent in Golden State’s seemingly impenetrable armor. If he either can’t play or proves to be ineffective in a limited capacity, who will Memphis turn to for answers?
"More Dave Joerger on Mike Conley- "The game plan is without him, but at some point in the series you're hoping that he plays."
— Rob Fischer (@thefishnation) May 1, 2015"
In the first round, Memphis plopped Nick Calathes into the starting lineup and had him toggle back and forth with Beno Udrih for lead ball-handling duties throughout Games 4 and 5. In an obviously limited sample size, the Grizzlies crushed the Portland Trail Blazers when Calathes ran beside their four natural starters (Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph).
According to NBA.com, that five-man unit outscored Portland by 21.5 points per 100 possessions in 39 minutes of action. Calathes uncharacteristically knocked down over half of his threes, but he only shot 40 percent from the floor with a turnover rate that came dangerously close to eclipsing his assist percentage.
While Conley can sink threes and demand respect as a floor-spacing presence, Golden State’s guards will completely ignore Calathes whenever he does not have the ball, flummoxing the Grizzlies’ primary post-up attack.
But where Calathes can hold his own is on the other end. He’s a tremendous defensive player, 6’6” with lengthy arms and great anticipation. He’s physical, gets into ball-handlers and fights through screens. According to ESPN's Real Plus-Minus statistic, Calathes' 3.39 Defensive RPM ranks first among all point guards (and third among shooting guards).
Is he as good a defender as Conley? Probably not. But he’s more versatile in this matchup, and his height will allow Memphis to switch most off-ball screens involving Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Calathes can stick with both of them (as well as any defender can, which is to say he has a puncher’s chance).
Curry and Calathes shared the floor for just 15 minutes in two regular-season meetings this year, and in the one game Memphis got the better of Golden State way back on Dec. 16, Calathes did not play.
But to ultimately beat the Warriors, points must be scored. Lots and lots of points. That’s where Udrih comes in. Overall, the Grizzlies were terrible in the first round whenever their backup point guard took the floor. Their offense was an incredible 21.2 points per 100 possessions more efficient when he sat on the sidelines, despite most of those minutes coming against Portland’s reserves.
But in 82 first-round minutes (he missed Game 3 with an ankle injury), Udrih was mostly fantastic, posting a PER of 22.5, shooting 48.7 percent from the floor and averaging 20.6 points per 36 minutes. In order for Memphis to have any sort of chance against Golden State, Udrih needs to replicate his Game 1 performance (20 points and seven assists on 64 percent shooting) from the first round throughout the entire series.
If that sounds unlikely, it's because it is. Memphis' chances of winning are slim to none. In Game 5, with Calathes and Udrih both playing poorly, Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger made Lee his point guard, a move that won't hold up in the long haul but was effective that night. This isn't the answer, and if you see it in Round 2, you know Joerger is officially grasping for straws.
It isn't controversial to say Memphis will be swept by Golden State, even with a healthy Conley playing at an All-Star level. The Warriors are that good—a high-powered hose that power washed the NBA for six straight months.
Memphis isn't a garbage basketball team, and, well, they play the games for a reason. But even if the stars align and Calathes and Udrih simultaneously play the best basketball of their lives for the next couple of weeks, there's still an extremely low chance the Grizzlies advance to the Western Conference Finals.
So goes life in the NBA playoffs.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina is an NBA writer who lives in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
