How Real Madrid Can Topple Sevilla's Unbeaten Home Record Without Luka Modric

Heading into the last few weeks in La Liga, the top two might have been predictable at the start of the season, but it's still difficult to call whether Barcelona or Real Madrid will end up lifting the trophy.

Both have difficult fixtures still to play in the weeks ahead—Atletico Madrid for the leaders, Valencia for Real—but before either of those, Real travel to Sevilla in one of the toughest fixtures for any top-flight side in Spain this season.

Sevilla are the last unbeaten side at home in La Liga, having won 12 and drawn five of their games at the Sanchez Pizjuan, and Real are going to have to try to become the first side to take three points from the stadium if they are to keep pace with Barcelona at the top. More pertinently, they're going to have to do it without perhaps the most effective member of their team, Luka Modric.

As an attacking force, few can live with Real at their best.

Between the "BBC" attack, the big signings in midfield over the summer and the emergence of young talents such as Isco and Raphael Varane as key players, there is a tremendous depth and balance to the squad, which manager Carlo Ancelotti has blended in his own way, catering to all of the politics, egos and genuine ability within to see out the season in the hunt for two major trophies.

But that's at their best.

As witnessed earlier in the season, though, when key players are missing, there is a rather glaring difference.

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Over the course of the league campaign, Real have 102 goals in 34 matches. Modric has scored one and assisted three of those, but watch highlight reels and you'll see that, more often than not, he is heavily involved in buildup play for his team, even if he doesn't put the final touches on moves that lead to goals.

There's also the fact he has only played 1,300 minutes of Liga action, compared to the 2,000 of Isco or the almost 2,800 of Toni Kroos. Injuries have really hampered his ability to make a sustained impact on this season's team, and Real have suffered accordingly from time to time.

The critical nature of Modric to Ancelotti's game plan can be seen in his return from his first injury this season. As soon as he was back, he became undroppable once more, simply because he allowed the team to function far better as a whole.

Not everybody was thrilled with that; Croatia's team doctor Boris Nemec was quoted by Sky Sports (via Nova TV) as saying the Real manager was to blame for Modric's latest issue:

"

Ancelotti didn’t spare Luka at all after he returned from his long-term injury. 

He played 90 minutes in every match. Ancelotti has put Modric under a lot of pressure, instead of giving him time, little by little. 

Modric didn’t get injured because of the knock he received but because he was not 100 per cent ready. 

If he hadn’t been overworked, his lower leg wouldn’t go to the side in that tackle and crack.

"

Of course, it's worth remembering that Modric's initial injury came on international duty with Croatia, so there's every possibility that the national side were trying to deflect any blame themselves.

In any case, Real have to do without him for the trip to Sevilla—and also most likely without key forwards Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema. Bale is back in training, according to AS (h/t ESPN FC), though whether he'll come straight in to start is debatable.

To beat Sevilla they will need every available attacking talent, though, so Ancelotti may feel his hand is forced somewhat. Recently, the likes of Javier Hernandez have come in and done well to nail down spots and contribute to the side.

In midfield, the manager will face the choice of playing Sergio Ramos in a more advanced role again or else opt for Asier Illarramendi.

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In either case, James Rodriguez will play from the right side, and it is he more than any other player who will be critical to Real's ability to fashion chances against an all-round organised and miserly defence.

Whether in a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2, as shown, cutting infield off the right flank will give James ample opportunity to find spaces centrally, get involved in Real's buildup play and link with the strikers. Isco will attempt to do the same off the other side, moving down the left channel and showing his own neat brand of footwork.

The caveat comes if Bale is passed fit to start and Ancelotti deems the risk worth taking: Illarramendi could miss out entirely, and the midfield could revert to a 1-2 shape, full of technique and skill but also needing tremendous levels of discipline and work rate from the two more offensive players to get back into shape when Sevilla counter-attack.

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That quick break, with bundles of pace down the flanks and with Carlos Bacca up front, is where Sevilla are most dangerous.

The deep midfield protection—more often than not two of the powerful and mobile Grzegorz Krychowiak, Vicente Iborra or Stephane Mbia—leaves a solid defence with little space in front of it, allowing the centre-backs to mop up high balls and attempted through balls and make blocks.

Ahead, Vitolo and Jose Reyes, Aleix Vidal and perennial impact sub Kevin Gameiro all provide pace and width as an outlet, working the flanks or the channels and running straight at the opposition's defence.

There can be no question that Varane will be important with his recovery pace for Real in this match, just as much as Ronaldo will be with his propensity to shoot as soon as a sight of goal presents itself at the other end.

Sevilla's team mentality at home is incredible. Even when behind against Barcelona, once they survived that first onslaught (if conceding two can be considered "survived"), they began to play their own game, looking for the patterns in the final third which brought chances on a regular basis.

The 2-2 draw was as much a reward for their own self-belief as the talent shown on the pitch.

The fact that Sevilla are chasing the top four, are in the running for yet another Europa League trophy and are indeed in their most successful spell of their entire history should give Real notice enough that Sevilla have the motivation and ability to frustrate them.

That said, Real Madrid are one of the best anywhere in Europe and will know that if Barcelona almost beat them at the Pizjuan, they themselves can go one step further and do it. With James finding spaces and driving from deep, if Hernandez is fed chances inside the box and Real win set pieces for Kroos or Ronaldo to deliver quality, there will be opportunities to take the three points.

And if Sevilla's motivation is great to continue their own unbeaten run and make the top four, Real's own is surely greater as they chase a first league title in three years.

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