Should Bayern Munich Make Transfer Move for Dortmund Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan?

Ilkay Gundogan is set to be one of the hottest items on this summer's transfer market, with the 24-year-old midfielder's exit from Borussia Dortmund all but confirmed on Thursday via the club's Twitter account (in German).

BVB announced that he would not extend his contract, which is set to expire in June of 2016. With the Ruhr club in desperate need of a squad overhaul and facing the choice of selling this summer or letting him go on a free transfer a year later, it's almost a given that the Germany international will be sold.

Several clubs have been linked with Gundogan in recent days, including Manchester United (via Der Westen, in German) and Bayern Munich (via Bild+, in German). Although Der Westen has remained adamant that United are willing to pay up to €30 million to sign the midfielder, Bayern can never be ruled out. And such a move would make sense in many ways for club and player.

Gundogan is perhaps more a Pep Guardiola-type player than the coach's protege Thiago Alcantara. The German maintains the spirit of a No. 10, the position he occupied in the early stages of his career before moving to the Signal-Iduna Park: He has a very delicate touch and the agility to dance through defenses, as well as the creativity of a playmaker. He can turn and dribble out of danger or one-touch pass his way into the clear. And he can also be the man to play the final ball to a forward.

But at the same time, he's been trained to play in a defensive position, to track runs and tackle and play it safe when in possession deep in his own half.

As "complete" midfielders go, Gundogan's skill set is rivaled by few. He can play football, full-stop, and his ability to adapt to almost any opponent is extremely useful. In fact, it's precisely why he was the best midfielder in the 2012-13 Champions League as BVB exposed weak points among such greats as Yaya Toure and Xabi Alonso, while Gundogan played well against every opponent he faced.

If Xavi was the perfect midfielder for Guardiola's old, "tiki-taka" system, Gundogan fits the trainer's current philosophy (one that involves "total footballers" playing in a variety of systems) just as well: He has the skill to play a possession-based game and the training and quick mind to counterattack. And, having developed under Jurgen Klopp, Gundogan is both willing and able to press.

At Bayern, Gundogan would join a growing contingent of former Dortmund players. He played well with Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski at Signal-Iduna Park and would likely find it easy to fit in at Bayern with his former teammates sharing the pitch with him.

The Bild+ report claims that Bayern's pursuit of Gundogan is especially due to the fact that Xabi Alonso and Bastian Schweinsteiger have contracts that expire in 2016, and with the pair respectively set to turn 34 and 31 in the coming months, signing a player like Gundogan could settle things in the Bayern midfield for the long-term.

On the other hand, there is some risk for player and club, should Gundogan move to Bayern. Like Thiago, he missed over a year with an injury. Back problems can become chronic, and there remains the possibility of him having a relapse. Gundogan also hasn't reached his best since returning, although that could also be related to Dortmund's general decline. 

Moreover, there isn't a massive difference between Gundogan and Thiago in terms of playing style and role on the pitch. The former is more appropriate for playing in deep areas, but even so, he's always benefited from having a hard-nosed defensive midfielder like Sven Bender alongside him. Both Thiago and Gundogan demand plenty of the ball and may get in one another's way.

Because both think and move the ball quickly, Gundogan and Thiago may not clash as Schweinsteiger and Alonso do, but it still is cause for concern: It's hard to see Thiago and Gundogan finding the magic chemistry that Xavi and Andres Iniesta had in Guardiola's Barcelona. And given that the two were born less than six months apart, it's not like one will ever succeed the other provided both are fit.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

Even so, Bayern may be a good move for Gundogan should he decide on it and be permitted to move. He'd have familiar players around him—players with whom he has a proven record of connecting and combining in a devastating way. And the Germany international would not have to move to a new league and country, so all cultural changes on and off the pitch would be minimal.

There is the possibility of Gundogan's skill set clashing with that of the well-established Thiago, but that obstacle is no more substantial than fitting into a completely foreign system with players trained in an entirely different brand of football. And if Guardiola has to choose one, Gundogan has every chance of being the preferred choice: In the 2012-13 campaign he proved that, at his best, he can be the world's best in his position.

All this may be academic, given that Dortmund will do everything possible to avoid selling another key player to Bayern. But it would be a mistake to rule out such a change, given that BVB will be desperate to sell him rather than let him go for free, and Gundogan could flatly refuse a move elsewhere.

Ultimately, he holds the strongest cards in deciding his future. And if that's one at Bayern, it wouldn't be the worst option for him and the Bavarians.

@Mr_Bundesliga