Carolina Panthers Mock Draft: Final 7-Round Predictions

The 2015 NFL draft has finally arrived!  After months of speculation, analysis, scouting and rumors, we’ll finally find out where the top players will end up.  We’ll find out which team, if any, makes a move for Marcus Mariota; where troubled but talented receiver Dorial Green-Beckham ends up and whether a running back is drafted in the first round for the first time since 2012.  We’ll soon replace speculation and innuendo with facts and analysis.

And what better way to celebrate the end of mock draft season than with one final mock draft?

While the general consensus is that the Carolina Panthers will use their first-round pick on an offensive tackle, they are otherwise in a position where they don’t have to reach to fill positions of need.  Yes, a complementary receiver for Kelvin Benjamin, a replacement for the departed DeAngelo Williams and a better in-the-box safety than Roman Harper are all high on Panthers fans' wish lists, but none of those needs are so glaring as to force the Panthers into making a move.

In his predraft press conference, Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman said that he “feels good” about where the team is at plenty of positions.  That’s a major shift from last year, where gaping holes at the wide receiver position essentially demanded the team take Benjamin in the first round, while still leaving massive holes at offensive tackle and cornerback.  The team doesn’t have anything like those massive holes this year.

The Panthers also have more picks, with nine total thanks to the compensatory selections received for the losses of Mike Mitchell and Captain Munnerlyn.  The Panthers haven’t even made their normal allotment of seven selections since 2012, and they haven’t had as many as nine picks since 2010.  Taking into account the fact that 2010 was missing a first-round selection, and you have the most potential value in a Panthers draft since 2008.

The combination of the lack of gaping needs and plenty of capital to work with means that any mock draft, even this close to draft day, is going to be, at best, an approximation.  While the Panthers haven’t been very busy with draft-day trades in recent memory, they have more picks to play with this year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them make a moderate move up, especially in the middle rounds.

Similarly, without a bunch of holes, the Panthers’ best strategy is probably to take the best players available.  Last year, for example, wide receiver Jarvis Landry surprisingly fell to the end of the second round, where the Miami Dolphins took him and received an 84-reception, 758-yard season in return.  That’s the Panthers' best strategy—to find players who surprisingly fall later in the draft than their talent would imply and to snap them up.

Of course, it’s impossible to predict who will “surprisingly” fall in the draft, because it wouldn’t be a surprise if it were predictable.  This mock draft, then, makes two assumptions.

First, it assumes the Panthers will stay put and make selections in each of their nine slots.  This is somewhat plausible, as the Panthers rarely make draft-day moves. If you’re interested in trade possibilities, you can take a look at this article from earlier in the week.  

Secondly, it assumes that the various consensus draft boards out there more or less reflect the reality of who will be picked by whom on draft day.  That is, there won’t be any massive slides or gratuitous reaches when the actual picks start flying.  This is almost certainly not plausible, as there are always moves that surprise people during the draft, but it’s the only way to make a realistic mock.

With no further ado, here’s the last pre-draft prediction for what the Panthers will do come draft day.

Round 1: La’el Collins, OT, LSU

We’ll start Round 1 off with a headline-grabbing move.  La’el Collins is considered one of the top offensive tackles in the draft and was supposed to attend the draft in Chicago.  However, he has had to leave and return to Louisiana to meet with local authorities in regard to the April 24 shooting death of Brittany Mills, according to Ian Rapoport.

It should be made absolutely clear that, at least at this point, Collins is not a suspect in Mills’ death.  This is not an Aaron Hernandez situation.  If anything, it seems more likely that they want to talk to him about the possible parentage of Mills’ child, as USA Today reports that the police are “interested” in the results of a pregnancy test.

The timing could hardly be worse for Collins.  Teams might well be scared of drafting him as highly as they otherwise would, because it’s not good to have your franchise offensive tackle being actively interviewed by police while people talk about him on national television.

It’s important to note, however, that not only is Collins not a suspect, he reportedly has an alibi. He also has a pristine record off the field prior to this incident, with no character red flags whatsoever.  ESPN describes him as a “person of high character who is mature and handles his business."  There is no reason, at this time, to believe he was involved with anything criminal.

If Collins slips because of the ongoing situation, then the Panthers should pounce on him.  Collins has the flexibility to play multiple positions along the line of scrimmage, possibly starting as a guard and then moving out to offensive tackle after he gets his feet wet.  On 312 pass-blocking attempts last season, Collins allowed zero sacks, zero hits and only four hurries, according to College Football Focus.  There’s some question as to whether he can play tackle in the league or not—I think his ceiling is probably as a right tackle, rather than a blindside protector—but he’d be a massive value at the 25th pick.

If Collins is off the board at 25, or if the Panthers understandably balk at taking someone even marginally connected with a murder investigation, there are plenty of other offensive tackles available here.  The Panthers are likely to have their choice between Florida’s D.J. Humphries, Texas A&M’s Cedric Ogbuehi and Pittsburgh’s T.J. Clemmings with this pick.  One way or another, I think they’re going offensive tackle here.

Round 2: Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan

The Panthers are, at the moment, stuck choosing between Jerricho Cotchery, Ted Ginn and Corey Brown for their second receiver behind Kelvin Benjamin.  That’s not as bad as it was this time last year, when the second receiver was one of Jason Avant, Tavarres King or Tiquan Underwood, but it’s still clearly below average.

In a deep receiver class, there’s a good chance at least one of the top ten receivers will drop to pick No. 57.  While I’d hold out hope that that is either USC’s Nelson Agholor or Miami’s Phillip Dorsett, I think Devin Funchess is more realistic.

Funchess is one of the toughest receiver prospects to analyze in this year’s draft.  Specifically, what position does he play?  Is he a receiver?  If so, he lacks the speed you’d hope for from a player in the first two rounds, as he ran only a 4.7-second 40-yard dash at the combine.  Is he a tight end?  If so, he lacks the strength and blocking prowess you’d want out of a top tight end.

What I think he is, at the end of the day, is a mismatch waiting to happen.  At 6’4”, 232 pounds, he has the body type of a Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall.  Cornerbacks are simply not going to be able to easily handle him.  He doesn’t have the same hands as either of those players, but size alone is something in his credit.

You use Funchess by putting him in the slot, lined up against the coverage linebacker or smaller nickel corner.  He’s quicker than you’d expect a big guy to be—he improved his 40-yard dash to the 4.5-second range at his pro day, which isn’t spectacular but is at least workable—so he’ll run downfield, get thrown a high, 50-50 fade and beat his shorter defender to the catch.

The worst thing about Funchess, really, is that he’s a very similar player to Benjamin.  Ideally, you’d want two different, yet complementary, receivers.  That would make a speedster like Devin Smith, for example, a more exciting selection.  I don’t think he’ll be available at the back half of Round 2, however, so I’ll take Funchess and be happy.

If the Panthers decide Funchess is too similar to Benjamin, they could go in another direction.  They could double up on offensive tackles with Ogbuehi, who is likely to still be available late in Round 2.  That’s also a reason to consider going with a receiver like Agholor in the first round, knowing that they could probably fall back on Ogbuehi with a later selection.

They could alternatively go for a talented player at a position of lesser need.  Either Miami’s Denzel Perryman or Washington’s Hau’oli Kikaha could start ahead of A.J. Klein as the third linebacker in Carolina’s base 4-3 defense.  While that’s not really a position worth taking in the second round, either of those players would represent one of the best players available on the clock at that point.

Round 3: T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama

With DeAngelo Williams in Pittsburgh now, the Panthers need a back to couple with Jonathan Stewart.  As great as Stewart was at the end of last season, he hasn’t shown an ability to carry the full load, often struggling with injuries and fatigue.  Right now, the primary reserve is Fozzy Whittaker, who can be improved upon.

T.J. Yeldon, at 6’1” and 226 pounds, is one of the bigger running backs likely to be available in the middle part of the draft.  He uses his size, as well as his excellent foot quickness and vision, to pick his way through traffic.  It’s not LeSean McCoy-esque dancing and juking in the backfield but more Frank Gore-style patience and determination.  He’ll find the cutback lanes and take advantage of them and then use his burst to take the ball to the second and third levels.

He’s been very productive on the goal line as well.  ESPN charted him as scoring seven times on rushes from the 2-yard line or closer in both 2014 and 2013, on a total of 17 carries.  That’s an 82.3 percent conversion rate, compared to the college average of 59.3 percent.

Yes, he runs overly upright, which makes him a fumble risk. And yes, he can sometimes overthink his cutbacks and dance around for too long, losing yardage rather than taking what was blocked for him. Still, he can be a very valuable contributor in a rotation, which is precisely what the Panthers are looking for.

If the Panthers pass on offensive tackle in the first two rounds, they could go for someone like Penn State’s Donovan Smith here.  I can’t imagine them putting tackle off any later than this, however.

Before the team added Charles Tillman, I had this as a good spot to add a cornerback like Utah’s Eric Rowe or Florida State’s Ronald Darby.  It would still be a good value pick here, but the need is no longer pressing.

Round 4: Anthony Chickillo, DE, Miami (FL)

With Greg Hardy gone, the Panthers have three-quarters of an excellent defensive line.  Charles Johnson, Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei are more than adequate to create a fearsome defensive front.

Hardy’s old spot, however, is still something of a question mark.  The Panthers used last year’s second-round pick on Kony Ealy, but he had a sub-par rookie season.  Wes Horton is penciled in as a possible starter there, but that’s not a great idea, either.  The Panthers could go for a rotation here, with Horton, Ealy and Chickillo.

Chickillo’s college career and draft stock are not as high as they might have been.  At Miami, Chickillo was a 3-4 defensive end, tasked with holding the point of attack and soaking up offensive linemen, rather than being free to engage tackles one-on-one.  I think that’s a misuse of him—I think he’s a strong-side, 4-3 defensive end who was asked to play a position not suited for him.

Chickillo is strong at the point of attack, with good, long arms to provide leverage.  At the East-West Shrine Game, where Chickillo was allowed to play as a 4-3 end, he tore up the place.  Daniel Jeremiah lauded him for his work in practice, and then he had a very good game as well.  I think that, once put in a system that suits his talents, he’ll do very well and live up somewhat to the 5-star rating he had as a recruit out of high school.  He may never become a frequent starter in the NFL, but I think he has a valuable role in a rotation at the defensive end position in a 4-3 defense.

Round 5: Kyle Emanuel, OLB, North Dakota State

The Panthers have three selections in a span of 15 picks at the back end of the fifth round, which means the draft room will be very busy at that point.  Two of them are compensatory picks, meaning the Panthers can’t even use them as part of a trade.

With the non-compensatory selection, I’m going with an underrated linebacker from an FCS school in Kyle Emanuel.  North Dakota State is the most dominant FCS program in recent memory.  Over the last five years, they’ve gone 18-1 in the FCS playoffs, including winning the last four national titles.  While FCS is less competitive than the big-time programs, North Dakota State is a legitimate powerhouse.

One of NDSU's leaders over the past few seasons has been Emanuel.  The winner of the Buck Buchanan Award for the top defensive player in the FCS, Emanuel has all the tools needed to be an outside linebacker in a 4-3 system in the NFL.  He has a relentless motor and plays with great strength and surprising quickness.  His arms are a bit short for an ideal linebacker, at only 31 inches, but I’m not overly concerned about that.  He reminds me a bit of Chris Borland, who had an excellent rookie season for the San Francisco 49ers last year.

Emanuel has the competitive fire, leadership skills and experience that I like to see in a late-round draft pick.  He’d start on the bench behind A.J. Klein and as a special teams contributor, and he has the potential to develop into a bit more than that.  He’s one of my draft crushes this year.

Round 5, Compensatory: Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

The Panthers don’t really have the need for a quarterback.  Cam Newton isn’t going anywhere any time soon and Derek Anderson played quite well when called upon twice last year.

Sean Mannion, then, is simply a pick of a top talent available.  As a four-year starter, he has the experience you’re looking for in a developmental player.  He has prototypical size, at 6’6”, and played in a pro-style offense, so there’s not a massive jump when it comes to lining up under center in the NFL.  His footwork is very solid, he showed ability to audible and make pre-snap changes at the college level and his accuracy is above average.

Mannion is a developmental player, rather than a potential starter, because of the slow pace at which he plays.  He also has tendency to turn the ball over, throwing 54 interceptions over his college career.  Pressure has the tendency to force him into making poor decisions; he needs to be protected to play well.

He’s a backup, then.  He has enough positive traits to be worth developing—certainly more than Joe Webb, the current third-string quarterback who really is more of a receiver than passer.  I think Mannion has the best chance of developing into something among all the Day 3 quarterbacks, including Bryce Petty and Garrett Grayson.  If he’s available at the back of the fifth round, some team is going to be very happy.

Round 5, Compensatory: Mitch Morse, OG, Missouri

Mitch Morse started all over the line in college.  He started 18 games at right tackle, 14 at left tackle and eight at center at Missouri, and I think he can play guard, as well.  When you’re looking for a reserve lineman, versatility like that is tough to beat.

He doesn’t have the arm length or strength you’re looking for in a top prospect, but Morse is a smart, tough player with above-average instincts and a feel for playing the position.  He’s tenacious, and isn’t going to let initially being beaten stop him from trying to make a play.  He shows good ability to absorb power rushes and has solid footwork.

He’s probably best suited for a zone-blocking scheme, as he doesn’t have the weight, hand size or arm length you’d want in a true power lineman.  I think he definitely has starting potential, though, if placed in the right scheme.  I don’t think he’d win the job outright from Amini Silatolu or Trai Turner, but he’d become the top lineman off the bench on the interior, backing up all three positions.

Round 6: Quandre Diggs, CB, Texas

If Quandre Diggs weren’t 5’9”, I’d like him quite a bit earlier than the sixth round.   He’s got great, ball-hawking instincts and route anticipation.  He’s a four-year starter in college, so he has plenty of experience.  He’s a solid tackler, a tough competitor and a battle-tested veteran.  He has experience playing both on the boundaries and in the slot.  He checks most of my boxes when I’m looking at a cornerback.

Unfortunately, he is 5’9”, and that’s going to limit his potential in the NFL.  He essentially has to become a slot cornerback, as he would get eaten alive by the tall receivers who routinely run down the boundaries in the NFL.

On the Panthers, I think he has a real shot at winning the dime cornerback role over Melvin White.  He has special feet and great awareness.  If he doesn’t, he could be a player placed on the practice squad for a year or two as he develops.  I think he has a better chance of developing and contributing than most sixth-round picks, so this is pure value at this point.

Plus, his nickname is “Quandre the Giant”.  That’s worth something right there in my book.

Round 7: DeVante Davis, WR, UNLV

Seventh-round picks are like lottery tickets; they so rarely work out that all you’re looking for is the potential for the player to become a game-changer. Truthfully, you know all the while that you’re likely to get nothing in return for the selection.

My home run swing, then, is to grab a receiver with prototypical size, at 6’3” and 220 pounds.  Devante Davis is great at tracking the deep ball, which is a skill he’s had to use quite frequently thanks to sub-par quarterback play at UNLV.  He’s made a career out of catching passes in double coverage, throws behind him and throws that have to be tipped out of defenders' hands.  The gamble here is that, with a quarterback capable of getting the ball into the same ZIP code as Davis, he can develop into a deep threat.

Is this the perfect mock draft?  No, it’s not—the lack of a potential replacement for Roman Harper is a significant problem.  Any pick of a safety, however, would have represented a significant reach.  If Carolina wants to address the safety position, they’re either going to have to hope someone falls or make a move on their own to get into a better position.  It’s not a pressing enough need to reach for a player well out of position.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers during the NFL draft.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.