Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw
There wasn’t an actual race Wednesday, but there were plenty of winners and losers at the 2015 Kentucky Derby post position draw.
Most importantly, dominant horses American Pharoah and Dortmund avoided the dreaded posts against the rails. It was the biggest hurdle remaining for the top two contenders in the field, and they both cleared it with some help from Lady Luck.
Here is a look at the post positions and odds for American Pharoah, Dortmund and the rest of the field, as well as Wednesday’s winners and losers and a prediction for Saturday’s race.
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| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 13 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 14 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 15 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15-1 |
| 16 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 17 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 18 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 |
| 19 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 20 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30-1 |
| - | Also Eligible | - | - | |
| 21 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nicholas Zito | 50-1 |
| 22 | Tale of Verve | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 |
Winners: Bob Baffert, Danzig Moon and Firing Line
Trainer Bob Baffert is horse racing’s shining example of the cliche that the rich only get richer.
He already boasts three Kentucky Derby victories, five Preakness wins, a Belmont title and 10 Breeders’ Cup wins on his illustrious resume, and now he has the best two horses in the field at the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Fortunately for him, American Pharoah and Dortmund avoided the dreaded No. 1 post Wednesday, which would pin them against the rails and dramatically reduce their chances at a victory.
The undefeated Dortmund drew a favorable spot at No. 8, which puts him near the middle of the field and presents the opportunity to adjust to the rest of the field as the race progresses. What’s more, he won’t get caught on the inside and doesn’t have as much ground to cover as those horses on the outside.
One of those horses on the outside is American Pharoah, who drew the No. 18 post.
On paper, that is less than ideal, but he is more than equipped to deal with that starting spot. American Pharoah won his past four races by more than 22 combined lengths and typically bursts out of the gates with impressive starting speed. Sure, he will have more ground to cover from the outside if he wants to cut off the others down the stretch run, but he also won’t have as much traffic to navigate at the start.
That should contribute to an early lead, which is American Pharoah’s formula for success.
Baffert discussed his nerves as the feared No. 1 gate was still on the board Wednesday, per Beth Harris of The Associated Press, via USNews.com: "I did not like the way it was playing out. I just couldn't believe they hadn't called one of my horses. A lot of the holes were being taken that I sort of like, and then I was really relieved to get 18 so I was happy with that."
He certainly caught a break Wednesday, which is unfortunate news for the rest of the field.
Elsewhere, Danzig Moon and Firing Line are winners because they drew the No. 5 and No. 10 posts, respectively. Those spots have each produced nine winners since 1930, which is the most in Kentucky Derby history.
Losers: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mr. Z and Carpe Diem
While the No. 5 and No. 10 posts are historical winners, the No. 1 is so feared for a reason.
Outside of the logical disadvantage of starting against the rails, no horse has won from there since 1986, when Ferdinand completed the task. Ocho Ocho Ocho drew the unfortunate post Wednesday, which makes a horse that was already a long shot an even bigger one heading into Saturday’s race.
The history of the No. 1 post is still better than the No. 17 post, which has never produced a winner in Kentucky Derby history. Mr. Z drew that gate as yet another long shot that is now even more of an underdog than he was before Wednesday’s draw.
Neither of those horses were seen as legitimate threats to win, regardless of the outcome of Wednesday’s draw. The same cannot be said about Carpe Diem, although landing the No. 2 post is devastating for his chances to actually take home the Kentucky Derby crown.
Jeannine Edwards of ESPN and Candice Hare of Fox 1340 in Farmington, New Mexico, suggested as much:
Carpe Diem had a monumental task in front of him just to compete with the likes of American Pharoah and Dortmund in Saturday’s race. Now he will have to do it from the No. 2 position, which hasn’t produced a winner since Affirmed in 1978. That is an even longer drought than the cursed No. 1 post.
It is not a stretch to call Carpe Diem the biggest loser from Wednesday’s draw.
Prediction
The most important thing about Wednesday’s result was the notion that American Pharoah and Dortmund avoided the rails.
Dortmund is in a perfect spot in the middle, and American Pharoah is in an ideal position to unleash his early speed and put the rest of the field in the rear-view mirror. There is no reason to expect anything but an impressive performance from each competitor Saturday with the eyes of the horse racing world upon them.
American Pharoah will display the dominance that gave him the Arkansas Derby title, and Dortmund will come in a close second place. Look for Carpe Diem to make a strong late push after a troublesome start from the No. 2 post to claim third place.
Information regarding the records of various post positions is courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.
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