The Complete Indianapolis Colts Draft Primer

It's finally here.

The 2015 NFL draft is upon us, after months' worth of projections, scouting reports, mock drafts and, well, more mock drafts.

For the Indianapolis Colts, the 2015 draft is of significant importance because of how successful the team has been with inconsistent drafting over the last couple of years. The Colts reached the AFC Championship Game last year with one defensive starter having been drafted: nose tackle Josh Chapman. Now, the Colts look to take the next step to becoming a true Super Bowl contender.

Making the conference championship would lead many to believe that the Colts were Lombardi Trophy contenders last season, but that was always an extremely long shot. The Colts rarely defended well against good quarterbacks—the most impressive defensive performance came against an injured Peyton Manning in the divisional round of the playoffs—and the offense lacked the efficiency needed to make up for a toothless defense.

With some stability added to the offense and playmakers added to the defense, the Colts have a chance to lock up their spot at the top of the AFC for years to come with a strong draft. Nine picks is a lot to work with, a relief after having just 12 picks over the last two years (five in the top four rounds).

So as we look forward to the culmination of months of preparation on Thursday night, here is everything you need to know about the Colts.

Draft Picks

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Round 1, Pick 29

Round 2, Pick 61

Round 3, Pick 93

Round 4, Pick 128

Round 5, Pick 165

Round 6, Pick 205

Round 6, Pick 207 (from Seattle Seahawks, via Marcus Burley trade)

Round 7, Pick 244 (from Dallas Cowboys, via Caesar Rayford trade)

Round 7, Pick 255 (compensatory pick)

Analysis

This is just the second time since 2008 that the Colts have at least nine draft picks, but don't expect the team to stay put at all nine spots. 

The Colts need upgrades at starting positions more than they need depth, so don't be surprised to see them use their excess picks to trade up. Colts general manager Ryan Grigson has been more than willing to part with picks before, both low and high. The team traded up to select T.Y. Hilton in 2012 and Montori Hughes in 2013, while also trading away draft picks for players like Vontae Davis and Trent Richardson.

Top Defensive Needs

David Richard/Associated Press

It's difficult to talk about the Colts' defensive needs in a reasonable manner, because people take issues with rankings. 

In reality, all of the following are needs, and there is very little that separates them. The Colts could use a first-round pick on any of these spots, any of which would be completely defensible. The more important note here is that the Colts have so many needs defensively. It's a thin group currently, and the team really just needs playmakers in general. 

1. Safety

The team hasn't had this position locked up since Antoine Bethea's prime, and getting a long-term starter in the draft would be the missing piece in the starting defensive backfield. Mike Adams had a good year in 2014, but he's not a difference-maker and is 34 years old.

2. Interior Defensive Line

Remember that AFC Championship Game we were talking about? It was marred by the fourth consecutive beating the Colts took from the New England Patriots on the ground, as New England ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns. The Colts run defense wasn't abysmal for most of the year, but when it counted, it was putrid. The team could also use pass rush from the interior.

3. Inside Linebacker

Jerrell Freeman signing his tender lessens this need a touch, but the Colts could still really use an upgrade here. The run defense problems are as much a linebacker problem as they are a defensive line issue. An aging D'Qwell Jackson was a glaring liability in coverage last year, and Freeman's effectiveness dropped sharply as he dealt with injuries. With questionable depth behind the two (and very little youth), the Colts could use an infusion here.

4. Cornerback

Many would ignore the cornerback position here, as the Colts' top three corners will return next season. Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler all are in their primes, and the three meshed together nicely last season. Still, Toler could certainly be upgraded upon, and the 30-year-old's contract ends after this season. There is zero depth behind those three, and the team needs both injury insurance and long-term players to develop. 

5. Edge-Rusher

I put this last, not because of its importance, but because of the logjam the Colts have at outside linebacker. While Robert Mathis and Trent Cole are aging and the team will try to limit their snaps, having Erik Walden, Bjoern Werner and Jonathan Newsome in the wings will give the team plenty of players to rotate through. The Colts could use an upgrade over Werner and Walden and a long-term replacement for Cole and Mathis, but the sheer number of bodies makes this a need that doesn't need to be reached for.

Top Offensive Needs

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

The Colts' offensive needs are inherently less critical than the defensive needs, simply because the Colts offense is in a better place with several blue-chip pieces to build around.

Still, the Colts have needs at a variety of spots, especially when it comes to depth and long-term projections at a number of positions.

1. Offensive Tackle

I've written for months that the Colts needed to make offensive tackle a priority, not because Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus are a bad duo (though the latter had a terrible 2014), but because there aren't any future starters on the roster currently. Castonzo is a free agent next summer, and Cherilus' health is basically a coin flip at this point. If you had to pick one offensive position that makes the most sense early in the draft, it's a tackle for the future.

2. Interior Offensive Line

While a tackle is important, the interior offensive line could certainly use some stability as well. The team has a wealth of bodies, but only Jack Mewhort at left guard is a sure starter. Jonotthan Harrison and Khaled Holmes will compete for the starting center job again, but both have significant flaws. At right guard the Colts have Hugh Thornton, Todd Herremans and Joe Reitz, all who could compete. The Colts have plenty of options, but they might prefer better ones.

3. Running Back

The Colts could ignore running back all together in this draft and roll with Frank Gore, Dan Herron and (cross your fingers) Vick Ballard in 2015, but ideally the team would find a back in this draft class. The rookie would be a No. 2 to Gore while hopefully developing into the future starter. Herron is a decent player, but he's a No. 3 back in an ideal committee system. At 26 years old, he's likely hit his ceiling.

4. Wide Receiver

Again, many might not put this as a need, and it's true that it can't compare to the defensive holes or offensive line woes. Still, the team could use another piece for the big picture, as Andre Johnson can't have more than a couple of years left in him. Donte Moncrief could pan out as a future starter, but he's still raw and is no sure thing. Bringing in a late-round pick to compete for the fourth or fifth roster spot could be an overlooked steal.

Top Targets

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CB Marcus Peters, Washington

An ideal press cornerback, Peters has all the traits you'd want in a future lockdown defensive back, but it's impossible to look past his issues with the University of Washington coaching staff. Still, of any of the players that might still be there at No. 29, Peters has the best chance of being a future All-Pro, and the Colts need playmakers.

On the other hand, Colts general manager Ryan Grigson recently told Sports Illustrated's Michael Rosenberg that he doesn't consider significant character concerns until after the fourth round, so it may all come down to Peters' interviews.

DL Malcom Brown, Texas

One of several defensive linemen that could go anywhere in the latter half of the first round, Brown improved a lot during the 2014 season and could be a star if he continues to develop. He's incredibly athletic for a 319-pound tackle and has a versatility that is coveted by NFL coaches. The ability to rush the passer from the interior is a valuable trait, and one that would make him an ideal pick for the Colts.

LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA

While he's not the linebacker with the highest upside in this draft, Kendricks is my bet for the surest prospect to end up as a solid starter. Kendricks is impressive from an instinctive perspective, and he's one of the best side-to-side movers in this draft. He smoothly covers a lot of ground in pass coverage and has the perfect profile for today's pass-heavy league looking for a three-down linebacker.

S Landon Collins, Alabama

The Colts' biggest need meets the best safety in the draft here. The 2014 safety class isn't particularly strong, and Collins could be one of the few starters to come out of the draft. Grigson certainly thinks so, based on his comments in his predraft press conference, via Colts.com:

"

We’ve been digging and going through every single player. The further down you get on your board, the more warts appear with those spots... The safety position is tricky to me at least. Maybe to others, not so much, maybe it’s clearer to others, but there’s a trend for the not-so-traditional safety anymore. It’s more of a free safety type, that has cover ability, has that corner background, but a guy like Landon can do it all. You know, there’s only so many of those guys in the draft. There’s really not many.

"

DL Arik Armstead, Oregon

Commonly compared to Arizona's Calais Campbell, Armstead is a player you pick for what you hope he can become, not for what he is. At 6'7", 292 pounds, Armstead is a physical freak with the length, strength and quickness to become a monster at the 5-tech position on the defensive line.

This pick is a bit more risky than some, but it also has a higher potential ceiling. If the Colts are looking for "blue-chip" players this late in the first round, you have to take some risks.

DL Eddie Goldman, Florida State

A potential nose tackle to upgrade from Josh Chapman, Goldman was moved to a two-gapping tackle spot in 2014 and excelled. While he is still learning some aspects of the position, he has shown the strength and leverage to hold his own at the point of attack and does a very good job of stacking and shedding offensive linemen. His pass rush isn't consistent at this point, but with some coaching he could be the premier nose tackle of the future.

Offensive Line

While defense has to be priority No. 1 for the Colts in the first round, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the offensive line. It certainly seems to be a possibility at this point.

If the team is looking for an offensive lineman here, ideal options would include tackles La'el Collins or D.J. Humphries. If the team wants a more developmental prospect to sit for a year or two, Andrus Peat or Jake Fisher could be the pick. If an interior lineman is the play, center Cameron Erving is the only first-round talent that makes sense.

Post-First Values

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The first round is just part of the draft, and after Thursday comes six more rounds that are just as crucial. With that in mind, here are several positions that should have plenty of value in Days 2 and 3.

Running Back

Whether it's Rounds 2-4 or a late-round pick, there are more quality running backs in this draft than in any recent class. Think Ameer Abdullah, Jay Ajayi or Duke Johnson on Day 2, or Karlos Williams, Mike Davis, Jeremy Langford or Zach Zenner on Day 3.

Edge-Rusher

With this class being as deep as it is at the position, the Colts could actually get a strong edge prospect on Day 2. Potential picks include Hau'oli Kikaha, Davis Tull, Kyle Emmanuel, Nate Orchard or Danielle Hunter.

Wide Receiver

Much like the 2014 class, the 2015 NFL draft could have an incredible mix of top-end talent and multiround depth. The Colts don't necessarily need to spend an early pick on a receiver, so the depth here could prove to be extremely valuable. Players like Kenny Bell, Tre McBride, Titus Davis and Justin Hardy could be available at a variety of points during the later rounds.

Cornerback

Like receiver, the Colts need depth at corner, and the 2015 draft may have just the depth to provide it. Intriguing late picks at corner could include Gary Peters, Doran Grant, Steven Nelson and Darryl Roberts.

Final Mock Draft

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Round 1, Pick No. 29: S Landon Collins, Alabama

It's the pick that's made the most sense from the very beginning. No use straying from it now.

Round 2, Pick No. 61: ILB Paul Dawson, TCU

Not everybody is in love with Dawson after he tested poorly at the NFL Scouting Combine and improved only marginally at his pro day. But I will always be a big fan of linebackers with great instincts, and Dawson's are great. The Colts could use a playmaker up front more than any other addition in this draft, and Dawson has the potential to be just that.

Round 3, Pick No. 93: OT Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State

A uniquely athletic offensive lineman, Sambrailo has the quickness and technique to deal with speed-rushers in the NFL, and could be a steal of a pick if some team is patient with him and helps him develop a bit more power. There are some injury concerns with Sambrailo, but that's part of the reason why he's a mid-round prospect.

Round 4, Pick No. 128: RB David Cobb, Minnesota

Though not a flashy running back, Cobb is a strong, simple runner who takes what the offensive line gives him and uses good footwork and vision to get every yard available. He's not going to pop off many big plays, but he'll rack up yards in the five-to-nine yard range.

Round 5, Pick No. 165: DT Derrick Lott, Tennessee-Chattanooga

Lott is a low-upside pick, with his slow snap get-off and high age (25), but the big defensive lineman holds his weight well and can play multiple places along the 3-4 defensive line.

Round 6, Pick No. 205: OLB Kyle Emanuel, North Dakota State

Though he needs some patience as he develops, the former linebacker and running back has athleticism to spare and is by all accounts an excellent teammate who is willing to work. He'll be a special teamer early, but he could develop into something special.

Round 6, Pick No. 207: CB JaCorey Shepherd, Kansas

A wide receiver convert, Shepherd has great understanding of route concepts and an athletic profile that compares favorably to any cornerback. Shepherd locates the ball quickly in the air and breaks on it well, and he could, at the very least, be a depth slot corner in his career.

Round 7, Pick No. 244: WR Chris Harper, Cal

One of the more egregious combine snubs, Harper was poorly used by the Cal coaching staff, but has the tools to succeed at the next level. Harper is a smooth route-runner with dependable hands. He's got speed and elusiveness to win after the catch, and could be a steal as a possession/YAC receiver.

Round 7, Pick No. 255: OG Cody Wichmann, Fresno State

An extremely athletic guard with great size (6'6", 315 pounds), Wichman dominated lesser competition at Fresno State and could struggle early against NFL competition. However, he has the tools to compete at a high level, especially if he gets stronger.