2015 NBA Mock Draft: Updated 1st-Round Predictions, Analysis for Top Prospects

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The top four players in the 2015 NBA draft almost seem a foregone conclusion at this point. Once you get outside that top four, the fun begins.

A lot can change between now and draft night, but most experts seem in agreement, projecting Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay in some order to occupy picks No. 1-4.

Outside of that group, plenty of potential All-Stars and an MVP or two reside. It's all about finding that right player and developing him. Kawhi Leonard is the perfect example of how the right situation can allow a player to truly flourish.

For the three players below, success in the NBA is far from a foregone conclusion. If they can become the best versions of themselves, though, they would be great value picks in the first round.

Most Interesting First-Round Prospects

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No. 5, Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke

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Trying to think of like-for-like NBA comparisons for college stars is always a somewhat foolish pursuit. No two players are exactly alike, and it's so tough to accurately forecast a player's career. So much is determined by his fit and coaching staff.

How good is Draymond Green right now on another team or without Steve Kerr coaching him?

With all of that said, it's hard watching Justise Winslow and not seeing somebody like Leonard. Offensively, Winslow is still a work in progress. Defensively, the Duke Blue Devil can guard any position 1 through 4.

At worst, Winslow should have a long NBA career simply for his ability to defend on the perimeter. If his shooting can improve somewhat, the sky is the limit.

That's what will make Winslow's first few years so intriguing to watch.

There's no telling what's going to happen with Tobias Harris. If the Orlando Magic are a bit wary of throwing a ton of money his way, Winslow would be a great replacement at small forward.

No. 10, Miami Heat: Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin

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The Miami Heat's recent draft history isn't exactly glittering. That's largely by design since the franchise made the last four NBA Finals and utilized an organizational strategy that relied more on signing veteran free agents than drafting rookies.

That's what makes the Heat—and the player they might draft by extension—so interesting this year.

As long as Miami re-signs Goran Dragic and Chris Bosh makes a full return in 2015-16, this team could do some serious damage in the Eastern Conference next year.

Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel believes that Pat Riley will look to put Miami in the best position to compete next year:

But it is clear, with his team built for the moment, with Dwyane Wade somewhat of an expiring commodity, that Riley again is looking to either draft for the moment, as he has with the three- or four-year collegians he has taken in recent years (Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Shabazz Napier), or perhaps even trade at the moment of truth (the Heat could select and immediately trade on draft night without violating the NBA rule of not being allowed to trade successive future first-round picks).

With that in mind, could the Heat get a more NBA-ready player at No. 10 than Frank Kaminsky?

Kaminsky was a four-year player at Wisconsin and also a big reason the Badgers made the Final Four in back-to-back seasons. Few players have proven themselves more at the collegiate level.

Of course, the bigger question is whether Kaminsky's skill set will translate to the NBA. He's not overly athletic, and he can be a liability defensively.

"Not much upside with Kaminsky, but I still think he can be a solid NBA player," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "He reminds me some of Kelly Olynyk."

On some teams, that might be a red flag. On the Heat, Kaminsky would be a great fit.

Nobody would expect him to overtake Bosh for the starting job, so he wouldn't need to take on a large role in Miami. Plus, Kaminsky would add some depth at the 4 that the Heat are sorely lacking.

In the Winderman article, Riley is quoted as being a bit dismissive about the impact a rookie has on good teams. He highlighted Jabari Parker and Marcus Smart as first-year players who contributed to playoff teams but added, "Not one other pick in the first round, or second-round picks, are on teams that were in the playoffs."

Maybe the opportunity to draft Kaminsky would be too good to pass up.

No. 16, Boston Celtics: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA

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Kevon Looney is one of the biggest question marks in terms of where he'll be in five years. You could envision him blossoming into an All-Star just as easily as you could envision him flaming out after a couple of years and becoming a first-round bust.

ESPN's Fran Fraschilla compared Looney to a highly touted high school pitcher. The UCLA Bruin's ceiling is extremely high, but his risk factor is through the roof. He labeled Looney as a proverbial "project player" and feels that Looney would be best served on a ready-made winner:

The best bet for Looney is land with a playoff team that does not need him to impact immediately. If his work ethic is a positive, there is room for him to develop into a contributing NBA player. Age is on his side. The early season talk of the lottery, however, was premature in my opinion.

The Boston Celtics may not fit that description exactly, but they were a playoff team and have a clearly defined direction in which they're heading. It would be a stable environment for Looney to progress his basketball career.

Looney will undoubtedly need to bulk up once he hits the NBA, and his shot will need some work.

The Celtics have so many picks in the next few years that they can afford to gamble on a player with exceptional length, athleticism and upside.