Best Potential Trade-Up Scenarios During the 1st Round of the 2015 NFL Draft
The Buffalo Bills made a decision early in the 2014 NFL draft. They wanted a potential franchise cornerstone wide receiver, and despite plenty of those available in a deep draft at the position, general manager Doug Whaley had eyes for only one man: Sammy Watkins.
In the moment, a blockbuster draft trade is exhilarating. The possibilities are endless when the trade announcement flashes across tickers at local watering holes and deep in man dens. But when future picks are exchanged—as they were between the Bills and Cleveland Browns for Watkins—it takes a full year for those selections to go from being mere numbers to actual football bodies.
And that's when a reality sinks in: Was that player worth a chunk of the future?
The Bills are now entering a draft without their first- and fourth-round picks, which is why they were so aggressive in free agency and on the trade market. But the need to pay that price for Watkins in a receiver-rich draft (five rookie wideouts with 800-plus receiving yards in 2014) is still questionable at best.
The Watkins swap is a prime example of the questions hovering around draft trades that general managers have to wrestle with each year. Is a potential trade necessary because there's a shallow talent pool at a position of need? Or should the trigger be pulled simply because the guy you want is just that damn good?
Grappling with those questions and others has already started, and the process will reach its boiling point once the opening round begins. In 2014 there were four trades during the first round, a number that could at a minimum be reached Thursday night or be far exceeded, depending on how the various draft dominoes fall and how desperate team needs become.
Let's go exploring, then, and see where the fireworks could explode with the top potential trade-up scenarios.
Marcus Mariota Anchors the Draft
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Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is either the cure for what ails a desperate offense, or he’s another fast-rising bust. He’s either viewed as an impressive athlete who recorded three straight 700-plus-yard rushing seasons during his college career, or he’s the product of a system and not ready for an NFL-style offense.
He’s either the source of quarterback infatuation during a draft that lacks premier talent at the position, or he’s Blaine Gabbert.
“You don't take Mark Zuckerberg and have him run a construction company,” said Maurice Jones-Drew, the former Jacksonville Jaguars running back who recently spoke with Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman.
“Blaine never adapted to the complicated pro offenses. The thing with Mariota is that it will take a long time for him to adjust to the NFL. It will take years. He will have to go to the absolute perfect place.”
And so goes the draft divide on Mariota, a quarterback who has savior potential, though it just might take him time to get there. But concerns about his NFL adjustment haven’t deterred potential trade suitors.
Nope, that lineup is still long, with teams taking numbers and waiting for the Tennessee Titans to make their intentions known.
Who wants him?: The Cleveland Browns have reportedly emerged as the front-runners for Mariota, according to DraftInsider.net’s Tony Pauline. They have firepower in the form of two first-round picks (12th and 19th overall) that can be used to leap up and grab what they may believe is a franchise quarterback. Whatever remains of the Johnny Manziel era would then come to its fiery conclusion.
The San Diego Chargers have also been constantly attached to Mariota, and the possibility of dangling their current quarterback Philip Rivers presents the draft’s best blockbuster trade potential.
Then there’s the Philadelphia Eagles, and the automatic Chip Kelly connection with his former Ducks quarterback. The Eagles head coach said in a March press conference he would "never mortgage" his team’s future to jump way up for a quarterback. But words spoken in March are often much different than actions taken in April.
Trade hot spots: Tennessee holds the second overall pick. If the Titans really, honestly think Zach Mettenberger is a “poor man’s Tom Brady,” as The Tennessean’s David Climer reported, a bloody auction and/or fist fight for Mariota will begin.
However, if the Titans instead decide to keep that pick and likely select USC defensive end Leonard Williams, early intrigue will build as Mariota slips ever so slightly.
The No. 5 pick held by the Washington Redskins then becomes a sizzling trade hot spot, as the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3) and Oakland Raiders (No. 4) won’t take a quarterback early for the second straight year.
What’s the price?: It’ll roughly be the draft’s equivalent to the cost of Shahid Khan’s yacht.
The Titans have reportedly asked for both of the Browns’ first-round picks in addition to their second-round pick (43rd overall), according to Pauline. Cleveland said “nah, we’re good,” but that gives you an idea of how massive the Mariota bounty will be for Tennessee or Washington if he falls.
Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole recently reported a trade between the Titans and Chargers is becoming more likely, and offering both Rivers, as well as the 17th overall pick, will only be a starting point for San Diego.
Then there’s Kelly, and his endless deck of wild cards. Even if Mariota takes a mild tumble, the Eagles still face the furthest climb into the top five. They're currently perched way back at No. 20, and in 2012 a whopping total of three first-round picks and a second-rounder were needed when Washington moved up a meager four spots for Robert Griffin III.
If Kelly has fastened his finest poker visor and actually does want to mortgage at least some of his future to get Mariota, he still only has a realistic shot if the 21-year-old somehow falls out of the top 10. However, a willingness to include Sam Bradford in any potential deal could make the Kelly-Mariota dots a little easier to connect.
Will the San Francisco 49ers Jump Way Up for Amari Cooper?
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If you think West Virginia’s Kevin White is the best wide receiver in this year’s draft, you’re not wrong. The gap between White and Alabama’s Amari Cooper is so tight—or nearly nonexistent—the best question to ask if you’re a general manager going wideout shopping is this: What, exactly, do I need?
If the answer is a physical wide receiver who can churn out yards after the catch, then Cooper is the draft prize you want. Cooper finished 2014 with an SEC-record 124 receptions, an absurb 84 more than any other Crimson Tide pass-catcher. He was also second in the nation with 1,727 receiving yards.
Cooper's appeal lies in his ability to create his own explosive plays. He led all draft-eligible receivers with 26 missed tackles and 3.97 yards per route run, according to College Football Focus.
He’s the ideal target for a team that needs not only a burner but also a compiler.
Who wants him?: That also makes Cooper the perfect addition for the San Francisco 49ers. They just added Torrey Smith, checking off the blazing deep-burner box on their list. He’s averaged 16.9 yards per reception over a four-year career, all with the Baltimore Ravens.
But now the 49ers’ offensive shuffling turns to a Michael Crabtree replacement. That is convenient, because Cooper is a pretty big Crabtree fan.
“I like the way Michael Crabtree plays the game,” Cooper said in July 2014, per NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread. “He’s strong, he goes up for the ball and he has that mentality to just make plays.”
Crabtree was zapped of his ability to cut abruptly and avoid tackles in the open field after rupturing his Achilles in 2013. But prior to that he collected 680 yards after the catch in 2012, per Pro Football Focus. The 49ers need that intermediate presence back in their offense.
Trade hot spots: This is where the challenge starts. San Francisco currently owns the No. 15 overall pick in the first round. To have a shot at Cooper, they may have to jump into the top five or at least ahead of the Chicago Bears at No. 7.
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller reported earlier in April that 49ers general manager Trent Baalke has “fallen in love” with Cooper. That connection makes a whole lot of sense, but at what cost?
What’s the price?: Historically, Baalke hasn’t done much draft-pick sacrificing.
Baalke has never traded more than a third-round pick to move up in the draft. If we operate under the pretty safe assumption Cooper wouldn’t get past the Bears, that means Baalke would have to jump up nine spots. Which would likely require shipping off a future first-round pick.
We don’t have to look too far back in draft history to see the precedent for such a deal. In 2014 the Buffalo Bills sent future first- and fourth-round picks to the Cleveland Browns when they jumped to grab Sammy Watkins. That was the cost to climb only five spots.
During that same draft, Baalke inquired with several teams about moving into Odell Beckham Jr. territory. He was eventually selected 12th by the New York Giants, and San Francisco held the 30th overall pick.
“The cost of moving was too much,” he told Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. “And the desire of those teams to move wasn’t enough.”
Teams Could Line Up If Leonard Williams Falls Even a Little Bit
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Back in late February, I spent a day watching the game film defensive end Leonard Williams produced at USC. What a glorious day it was, confirming Williams is a beast and can do a bit of everything.
If you’re ever facing a moment of boredom and have no other hobbies of note (playing dead is not a hobby), there are far worse ways to spend your time than embracing Williams tape watching. I focussed on USC’s Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska, a game when Williams recorded nine tackles and a sack.
His hybrid nature with a blend of power and athleticism becomes clear fast. At 6’5” and 302 pounds, Williams fits as either a 4-3 defensive tackle or a 3-4 defensive end and was disruptive against both the run and pass throughout his college career, while recording 21 sacks and 36.5 tackles for a loss.
So it’s easy to see why a frenzy will begin if Williams falls even a tiny bit. And by that I mean if he manages to get past the Titans at No. 2, which is entirely possible if they’re bluffing and decide to select Mariota after all.
Who wants him?: The short answer here is every damn team. But the more realistic scenario will likely see a trade up coming from either the Oakland Raiders, or New York Giants.
The Raiders reportedly have a thirst for Williams, according to B/R’s Jason Cole, and since they currently hold the No. 4 pick, a trade up might not be costly.
Alternatively, the Giants crave an interior defensive line upgrade and a solid run-stuffing presence. Williams would certainly meet that description, and as Jordan Raanan of NJ Advance Media noted, the Giants’ drool reflex over the 20-year-old is also particularly strong.
Strong enough that being aggressive to get the lineman with 218 collegiate tackles could happen if he falls out of the top three. That seems unlikely right now, though not impossible if the Titans take Mariota, and then at No. 3 the Jacksonville Jaguars opted for an outside pass-rusher (Dante Fowler Jr.?).
Trade hot spots: It all depends on who we’re talking about here. When the Titans auctioning the No. 2 pick is discussed, the focus is always on Mariota (see: two slides ago). But if the Raiders truly, madly and deeply want Willliams, they’ll have to swap with Tennessee, and it won’t be for a quarterback.
For the Giants, it’s likely they would wait, hope and cross fingers and toes for the aforementioned slight fall, becoming active if Williams reaches the fourth overall pick. That’s when the cost would become moderately more affordable. Moderately.
What’s the price?: Once again, it depends on who’s asking. If we stick with the two potential scenarios involving the Raiders and Giants, the cost for Oakland would clearly be far less substantial (comparatively at least).
They would only be moving up two spots, but at No. 4 the Raiders occupy a draft pivot position. Instead of jumping up for Williams, they could be targeted for a trade down, with the Giants calling. If that plays out, we can once again cite the Watkins example for a likely cost. The Bills pulled off the exact same climb in 2014, from No. 9 to No. 4. It cost them two future picks, including a first-rounder.
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Will Shane Ray Require a Leap of Faith?
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There's a split in opinion developing on Missouri defensive end Shane Ray as draft day nears. Which side you fall on rests with how much you’re concerned by two potential strikes against Ray during the predraft process: a poor pro day performance and a still-lingering injury that didn’t allow him to run at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Those two reasons for worry are connected, as Ray’s subpar pro day lowlighted by a 4.68 time in the 40-yard dash was surely a product of his recovery from an injured toe during the Citrus Bowl. As CBSSports.com’s Rob Rang noted, Ray also added 15 pounds prior to his workout.
It’s difficult to place too much emphasis on one workout, especially if it was influenced by physical factors as Ray continued his recovery.
“The bottom line is, his tape is way better than his measurables, and that’s the most important thing,” said NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock after Ray’s pro day on Path to the Draft (via NFL.com's Chase Goodbread).
Ahem to that, Mike, as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year who finished tied for third in the nation with 14.5 sacks is explosive off the line. Of Ray’s 65 tackles in 2014, 22.5 of them went for a loss.
The Ray riddle is a tricky one for a general manager in need of pass-rushing push. Should there be long-term concern over his foot injury, even though NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported he won’t need surgery? Or does the concern lie in Ray’s possible tweener status as an undersized 4-3 defensive end (6’3”, 245 lbs), and inexperience in a two-point stance?
If the answer to both those questions is a “nah, look at the tape,” then instead the concern shifts to whether other teams are also looking past Ray’s draft-season struggles and still thinking highly enough of him to select the 21-year-old with a top-15 pick. If that’s the case, a trade up to grab Ray is still possible.
But so is falling out of the first round entirely.
Who wants him?: The Baltimore Ravens are the ideal trade candidate to land Ray. As ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley quite rightly observed, Ray simply “plays like a Raven.”
The Ravens have no shortage of pass-rushing muscle after logging 89 sacks over the past two seasons. But they now have a need for a situational edge-rusher after Pernell McPhee—who recorded 7.5 sacks in 2014 even, while playing only 48.8 percent of the Ravens’ defensive snaps, per PFF—left for the Chicago Bears as a free agent.
Trade hot spots: There will likely be two, with the first coming early and another late in the first round.
If injury concerns still haven’t taken their icy grip over Ray’s short- and long-term projections, then it’s difficult to see him getting past the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. The Falcons will eagerly pounce on any pass-rushing help (only 22 sacks in 2014). Their level of desperation for pocket pressure? They may have considered signing THE football dog.
So any team with a burning desire to select Ray may have to jump ahead of Atlanta. That’s out of reach for the Ravens, who have the No. 26 pick. But if Ray’s fall starts he still won't get by the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 21, as their pass-rushing need has also reached watching-through-fingers levels (a league-low 20 sacks in 2014).
What’s the price?: Jumping ahead of the Bengals would be far more realistic for the Ravens, or any other team picking late that starts eying Ray during his potential slide (looking at you, Dallas Cowboys, especially after Greg Hardy’s suspension). Such a trade would likely require, at most, a second-round pick.
DeVante Parker Is the Next WR Who Will Generate Buzz
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Louisville receiver DeVante Parker is either a consolation prize, or he's the critical offensive piece a wideout-needy team wanted all along. Either way, he’s a damn fine receiver who will immediately upgrade any depth chart.
But a trade discussion is never that simple.
Parker is indeed great, offering steady hands after dropping only three passes since 2012, and at 6’3” and 211 pounds he brings a wide catch radius to vacuum up lofted balls in traffic. Parker finished with 855 receiving yards in 2014 (averaging 19.9 yards per reception) even after missing five games. There won’t be any sharp criticisms if he’s a top-10 pick.
However, is sacrificing even more for Parker wise in a draft loaded with wide receiver talent? It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see up to six receivers selected in the first round. The possibility of a trade up to secure Parker will rest with how brightly he sparkles in the eye of one general manager.
And that general manger might be in Miami.
Who wants him?: The Miami Dolphins have been connected to Parker throughout the offseason, and signing veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings doesn’t change that.
Loading up on weapons to support quarterback Ryan Tannehill is clearly an offseason priority, and Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald reports there are three receivers Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey is still considering: Cooper, White and Parker.
Of those three, only Parker has a remote chance of still being available for the Dolphins’ first pick at No. 14.
Jumping up to get Parker would also make sense for the Kansas City Chiefs, who signed wide receiver Jeremy Maclin but may still be looking to rejuvenate their passing game after somehow playing an entire season without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. The Chiefs sit at No. 18 and could get aggressive if Parker falls even a few spots out of the top 10.
Trade hot spots: If the Dolphins are seriously still slotting Parker high on their draft board, they’ll need to leapfrog the Minnesota Vikings. Pairing Parker with Teddy Bridgewater, his former college quarterback, would both address a need for the Vikings and be far too tempting.
The fatal flaw here for the Dolphins, though, is a lack of ammunition. To acquire the St. Louis Rams' No. 10 pick and get ahead of the Vikings, they need more firepower early in the draft. A chunk of that went away when the Dolphins sent a third-round pick to the New Orleans Saints as part of the trade to land wide receiver Kenny Stills.
What’s the price?: The Chiefs—or any interested team picking near them—would likely have to bundle a few mid-round picks together as part of a package. The Dolphins, meanwhile, might still be able to move forward five spots, while exchanging only their second-round pick.
Todd Gurley Will Be the Rare Coveted Running Back
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A running back getting drafted at all in the first round feels like a rare event on par with a kangaroo street fight (though, maybe that’s not rare at all? I digress).
Recent history hasn’t been kind to the NFL’s human punching bags who punch back, as during the past two drafts, running backs have waited and waited some more. A running back hasn’t been selected during the first round since 2012.
And now two runnings backs will be selected during the opening round? Yes, that dramatic shift is likely coming, with both Georgia’s Todd Gurley and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon poised to lead a revolution of sorts.
Even more remarkably, Gurley’s stock is soaring to a previously unknown stratosphere with optimism around his ACL tear recovery building. Gurley’s combine medical re-check led to a cleared hurdle, as NFL Network’s Albert Breer reported (via NFL.com's Chase Goodbread) that sources from five teams think he has a “great shot” to be ready for Week 1.
Let’s make an assumption, then, at least for the sake of this discussion. Let’s assume Gurley either won’t miss much playing time during his rookie season, or he won’t miss any at all. Suddenly the chances of his ACL rip creating a late-round steal will evaporate.
How high, exactly, is Gurley’s value rising after he averaged 7.4 yards per carry pre-injury during his final college season? At this point it might be surprising if he escapes the top 10.
Who wants him?: The list of running back-starved teams is lengthy. Among them, the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons hold valuable top-10 draft real estate. The Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) face an uncertain future with their current running back bruiser, Adrian Peterson.
The Vikings could be causing literal vibrations (the phone kind) around the league, while trying to trade up for Gurley. The same may be true of the Arizona Cardinals, San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys.
Trade hot spots: If the Jets or Falcons prioritize other needs (Gurley can’t pass-rush, sadly, and the Falcons need anyone who’s capable of putting their fingernail on a quarterback), one of those teams could hold a Gurley auction.
Their return would be significant, as Yahoo Sport’s Charles Robinson is reporting that “word on the street” says Gurley’s draft range is anywhere between picks No. 6 and No. 10. His demand status then: The draft equivalent to pizza at 2 a.m. on a Sunday.
However, if Gurley somehow still slips beyond the top-10 picks, there could be a push from Dallas and Arizona to get ahead of San Diego. That means the Houston Texans (No. 16) might stand to profit from Gurley’s appeal. Or they could just happily call Gurley’s name, making him Arian Foster’s platoon buddy and eventual replacement.
What’s the price?: If Robinson’s word on the street is a correct dart throw for Gurley’s current value, then we’ve reached the point where it wouldn’t be stunning to see a future first-round pick moved.
That’s only if the Jets or Falcons want to trade down, and either the Chargers or Cardinals have had plenty of sweet nothings whispered into their ear about Gurley, and they’re not willing to wait on Gordon as a consolation prize.
Melvin Gordon’s Demand Will Sizzle Once Gurley Is Gone
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Not long ago it was possible to at least ask and consider this question: Should Melvin Gordon be the first running back off the draft board?
I did the asking and considering, then, under the impression there was still a chance Gurley’s knee issues could lead to a fall. Now instead it seems Gurley will rise, and in the process he’ll bring Gordon up the board with him.
It’s not hard to envision that scenario for Gordon’s rising value as a prospect and a first-round trade target. If Gurley becomes a top-10 pick, quickly the same group of teams that were preparing to reach for him would need another option to fill their home run swinging RB need.
Gordon’s 2,587 rushing yards during his final year at Wisconsin was the second-highest collegiate single-season total since 1956. That makes him a pretty decent plan B.
Who wants him?: DraftInsider.net’s Tony Pauline reported the Cowboys are “very high” on Gordon. They would be the most likely team to trade up, because that’s the only way Gordon can be theirs. The Cowboys are slotted way back at the 27th overall pick, and to secure Gordon they would have to leap over the Ravens, Cardinals and Chargers, with the Detroit Lions and Texans also possibly showing interest.
Trade hot spots: Similar to the aforementioned (and unlikely) scenario with Gurley falling, a late-round team like the Cowboys or Ravens will need to get ahead of the Chargers to ensure Gordon is wearing their colors. That puts the No. 16 pick in play.
What’s the price?: Trading way up for Gordon becomes a thought that makes palms sweaty and knees jittery.
Gordon has tremendous one-cut speed to reach the second level and reeled off 17 runs of 40-plus yards in 2014. But is the divide between him and the rest of an overall strong running back class (most notably, Boise State’s Jay Ajayi with his 2,358 yards from scrimmage in 2014) wide enough to justify a major trade package with multiple picks involved?
That’s what it would take for either the Cowboys or Ravens to jump 10 or more slots.
Safety-Needy Teams Could Look to Secure Landon Collins
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Alabama safety Landon Collins is a fine prospect. He’s great even or excellent depending on the day. But he’s not a true center field safety who excels in coverage. He could develop into a more well-rounded safety over time, but right now keeping up with NFL wide receivers—and tight ends who have the speed of wide receivers—could be a challenge.
Yet, he’ll still be a first-round pick out of scarcity and not necessarily value. The 2015 safety class is shallow, which will push Collins up the draft board and perhaps a little too far for teams that have him atop their wishlist.
At 230 pounds he’s a thundering run defender and swarms to the ball. He had two double-digit tackle games in 2014, with 103 tackles in total and 33 defensive stops, per College Football Focus.
“A true sheriff against the run,” wrote NFL.com's Lance Zierlein in his evaluation of Collins, who’s a runaway beer truck at 6’0” and 228 pounds. “He tracks and stalks ball-carriers with patience.”
That sounds a whole lot like Troy Polamalu.
Who wants him?: No team wants Collins more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re in the middle of a secondary rebuild after Polamalu and cornerback Ike Taylor retired, and Collins would be a key immediate piece in that quick-turnaround effort. He was the only safety to visit the Steelers over the past two weeks, according to Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via NFL.com's Bryan Fischer).
Pittsburgh is in prime position to grab Collins with their 22nd overall pick, but at No. 29 the also safety-needy Indianapolis Colts aren’t. Earning the AFC crown means stopping quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and the muscled presence Collins brings to crash on short routes would be key.
Trade hot spots: Indianapolis would have to move ahead of the Steelers, which would mean dialing up the Bengals and asking about their No. 21 pick. Or maybe jostling ahead of the Eagles and dealing with the Browns at No. 20 will be necessary. Philadelphia had the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense in 2014 and could use Collins to eliminate short-to-intermediate gains if a Mariota trade doesn’t happen.
What’s the price?: Collins will be affordable for the Colts or another late-round team, as the first-round picks exchanged would entirely be in the back half. Adding a third-round pick would likely get the job done.
Trae Waynes Could Be Targeted by CB-Hungry Teams with Later Picks
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Trae Waynes is everything a cornerback-desperate team needs. That is a problem, because many of the teams really thirsting for a cornerback are currently scheduled to wait until late in the evening on April 30 to make their first pick.
So let the shuffling maybe/probably begin as teams chase after a player who’s quite good at chasing.
Waynes led all cornerbacks during the scouting combine with a 40-yard dash time of 4.31. That speed is a primary selling point, along with his ball skills and field awareness.
"Trae has a real natural feel and good eye discipline when it comes to shadowing guys,” said ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay (via USA Today’s Jim Corbett).
“What he does really well is know when to turn and locate the ball. He’s always in position to contest the ball.”
He’s also absurdly athletic, with one scout basically telling Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that Waynes’ broad jump of 122 inches at the combine was a Superman imitation.
“It was the most amazing things I’ve ever seen,” said the scout. “He was almost as high in the air as he jumped.”
He has great length and fluid hip movement, though there’s still mild concern about Waynes’ ability to change direction and cut abruptly. That was shown when he recorded a 20-yard shuttle time of 4.39, the second-worst in his position group.
Also, when Waynes did give up receptions in 2014, they were often for chunky gains, averaging 14.9 yards per completion, according to College Football Focus (via Mike Sando of ESPN Insider).
But those technique flaws can be improved with the right coaching and development. What’s important right now is that Waynes has the raw skill, which is what will make him a coveted cornerback.
Who wants him?: The Steelers would surely love to grab Waynes somehow. But Waynes’ former college defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, was quite right when he said Pittsburgh will have to fork over a few picks.
“It sounds like he’s going to go in the top 10 or 15 picks, so the Steelers will have to trade up,” Narduzzi told ESPN’s Scott Brown after speaking with team representatives at the University of Pittsburgh’s pro day, where he’s now the head coach.
The Steelers need Waynes, and seconday help in general, after allowing 30 passing touchdowns in 2014 (tied for 28th) and 253.1 yards per game through the air (27th). But do they think highly enough of Waynes to move up from No. 22? Or are they content to wait on Washington’s Marcus Peters, Wake Forest’s Kevin Johnson or LSU’s Jalen Collins?
Trade hot spots: Snatching Waynes could require a costly move into the top 10, as he might not get past the Vikings at No. 11. If he does, Waynes certainly won’t fall further than the 49ers at No. 15, making the Dolphins (No. 14) potential trade partners for Pittsburgh.
What’s the price?: Anytime you’re jumping from the 20th pick or beyond to even near the top 10 as the Steelers would be, a pricey package has to be assembled, and a future first-rounder isn’t out of the question.
If they’re considering a trade up, the Steelers need to ask and answer two questions in this order: What’s our priority between cornerback and safety? And if cornerback is the focus, is there really that much of a gap between Waynes and everyone else?
Phones Will Be Ringing If Ereck Flowers Falls
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Miami tackle Ereck Flowers is massive enough to provide sufficient shade for a small family at the beach. That’s a potential fall-back option if this whole NFL thing doesn’t work out.
But it should, because mauling 6’6” and 329-pound walls of bulk usually find a welcoming football home with ease. There’s a chance Flowers may have to wait a little bit, however, which means he’ll become very appealing for late-round teams with a need for his skill set.
And his area of expertise right now is run blocking. He’s a thrashing animal and thrusts forward with power to win at the point of attack.
He "combines hips, arm extension and upper-body power to consistently turn his man when base blocking,” wrote Zierlein when he took a look at Flowers. His strength and agility make Flowers the ideal edge-setter in the run game, and he also has the quickness to reach the second level.
But here comes the concern with Flowers, or at least a temporary worry: He needs work in pass protection. Rob Rang and Dan Brugler of CBSSports.com compared him to Bengals tackle Andrew Whitworth, both gargantuant men (Whitworth is 6’7” and 330 lbs) with cartoonish power.
However, their oversized bodies make the likes of Whitworth and Flowers vulnerable to smaller and exceptionally fast speed-rushers who can turn the corner.
Flowers' ideal situation then may be to land with a team that can allow him to develop as a right tackle (where Mayock thinks he could be a Pro Bowler, via NFL.com's Mike Huguenin), before eventually moving to the left side.
That works out nicely, because a team picking late can provide that transition, while others just need any blocking at all, anywhere.
Who wants him?: The most likely candidates to scramble up the draft board for Flowers are the Colts and Carolina Panthers.
Indianapolis is the transition team, as they already have Anthony Castonzo on the left side. If they trade up to grab Flowers, he would be an immediate upgrade at right tackle over Gosder Cherilus, who’s undergone multiple surgeries and faces an uncertain short-term future. In March, Colts general manager Ryan Grigson said (via The Indianapolis Star) there’s a wait-and-see approach with Cherlius’ recovery.
“We can’t afford to put anyone out there who can’t do the job,” he said of the tackle who had a knee scope, and in the past needed microfracture surgery.
The Colts need some more healthy beef up front. Though quarterback Andrew Luck was sacked a career single-season low 27 times in 2014, he was still whacked and faced pressure far too often. Luck was hit 107 times, the league’s fourth-highest total.
WalterFootball.com’s Charlie Campbell reported Indianapolis was among Flowers’ predraft visits. As were the Panthers, two teams that would likely have to hop up the draft board to get their man. Campbell was also in contact with a general manager of a playoff team who said Flowers is likely to be a top-20 pick.
The Panthers and Colts hold the 25th and 29th picks, respectively, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—another team Campbell mentions as a potential Flowers trade-up possibility in an interview with 620 WDAE's The Pat and Aaron Show (via Sander Philipse of Bucs Nation)—would have to move back into the first round and collect another late pick.
Trade hot spots: To secure Flowers the team wanting his services needs to charge ahead of the Bengals. They hold the No. 21 pick and have two tackles entering the final year of their contracts in 2015 (Whitworth and Andre Smith).
If the Bengals favor another tackle who isn’t named Ereck Flowers, then swapping with the Steelers at No. 22 is wise. Behind them both the Detroit Lions (No. 23) and Arizona Cardinals (No. 24) could also be tackle hunting.
What’s the price?: This is another case where the possible jump up is late in the round and not far. At most, a third-round pick should get a deal done.
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