5 Most Likely Scenarios for San Francisco 49ers' 1st Round Draft Pick
Much has been written about the missteps and bad luck of Trent Baalke and the 49ers organization this offseason.
The awkward departure of Jim Harbaugh and the subsequent search for his successor and a host of assistants were handled extremely poorly.
The free-agent market saw the 49ers lose much more talent than they brought in. Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Chris Culliver, Michael Crabtree, Perrish Cox and Dan Skuta have all departed. The 49ers also released Ray McDonald, leaving another void on the defensive line.
In addition, the unexpected retirements of inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will be a lot to overcome.
The 49ers signed free agents Torrey Smith, Reggie Bush, Jerome Simpson, Darnell Dockett and Shareece Wright. As one can plainly see, these additions do not come close to offsetting the subtractions.
This brings us to the 2015 NFL draft, with the 49ers holding the 15th overall selection. This must be an extremely good draft for the 49ers, as they have a multitude of holes to fill. Failing to bring in some impact- caliber players will make it very tough to compete in the loaded NFC West.
The 49ers' current roster needs major upgrades at cornerback, inside linebacker, defensive line, wide receiver and offensive line.
With the 15th pick, there are several different options the 49ers could take. Let's take a look at five potential scenarios and assess the likelihood that Baalke will move in those directions.
Option 1: Trade Down and Select Dorial Green-Beckham
1 of 5
Dorial Green-Beckham is perhaps the most polarizing player in the 2015 draft. He has immense physical talent, and his upside is potentially greater than even the top two receivers on the board, Amari Cooper and Kevin White.
At 6'5" and 237 pounds, Green-Beckham has the size NFL teams covet. In addition, his time of 4.49 in the 40-yard dash is outstanding for a player of his size.
Green-Beckham is undoubtedly a high first-round talent, but his off-the-field behavior has resulted in huge red flags. Green-Beckham was dismissed from the Missouri team for numerous incidents, including an alleged burglary and assault.
Green-Beckham ultimately was not charged, but this is just one in a series of bad situations he has gotten himself into. He also had two earlier marijuana-related arrests, prior to the alleged assault issue.
ESPN College Football analyst Chris Low reported on Green-Beckham's dismissal from the Missouri squad.
Green-Beckham subsequently transferred to Oklahoma, but sat out the 2014 season due to NCAA transfer rules. He, therefore, has not played in two seasons.
If San Francisco GM Trent Baalke trades down, five, or perhaps even 10 spots, he may be able to land Green-Beckham.
However, this would not be the wisest move for the 49ers. There is simply too much risk involved with a player of his questionable character. The 49ers cannot afford to miss with their top pick in this draft, and Green-Beckham is too big a gamble.
If, by chance, Green-Beckham was available in the second round, then he becomes a more viable selection for the 49ers. This is unlikely, however, as there will likely be a team that will take the gamble in the latter part of the first round, or very early in Round 2.
Probability that Dorial Green-Beckham will be drafted by the 49ers: Five percent
Option 2: Trade Up for Trae Waynes
2 of 5
Only once in the tenure of Trent Baalke have the 49ers traded up in the first round and had it turn out to be an excellent move.
In 2013, the 49ers moved up 13 spots to draft safety Eric Reid with the 18th overall selection. Reid looks like he will be a fixture in the San Francisco secondary for the next several years.
The 49ers would undoubtedly love to land one of the top two wide receivers in this draft class, Amari Cooper or Kevin White. Unfortunately, Cooper and White will likely go way too early for the 49ers to realistically jump up that high.
Both Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com project that Waynes will be selected by the Minnesota Vikings with the 11th overall pick. The 49ers would likely need to move ahead of the Vikings or make a deal with Minnesota to be in a position to draft Waynes.
Brugler had these positives to say about Waynes:
"Excellent size and length for the position. Experienced working on an island and plays with confidence. Does an excellent job using his body and length to gain inside leverage and keep outside receivers from getting comfortable vertically. Tough-minded competitor and plays with a physical, downhill demeanor, delivering a pop at contact in run support. Always keeps his eyes alert to quickly diagnose and break on break on the ball with natural ball skills to make plays.
"
With both Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox gone, the 49ers have a glaring need at cornerback. It is a position filled with huge question marks, as the top two returning corners, Tramaine Brock and Jimmie Ward are both coming off season-ending injuries.
The price tag will be quite high for Baalke to move up even four spots, likely costing the 49ers the 15th overall selection, plus their pick in the second round. This will likely dissuade Baalke from making this move. The 49ers have too many holes to fill and cannot afford to part with any other high draft picks.
Although cornerback is a major need for the 49ers, outside of Waynes, the other top corners, Marcus Peters, Kevin Johnson and Byron Jones all have some question marks and would not be ideal picks at No. 15.
Probability that the 49ers trade up and draft Trae Waynes: 10 percent
Option 3: Stand Pat and Select DeVante Parker
3 of 5
Most scouting services have DeVante Parker ranked as the third best wide receiver prospect in the 2015 draft. He is behind Amari Cooper and Kevin White, but ahead of the likes of Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Sammie Coates.
Parker played all four years at Louisville, and what stands out is his 19.9 yards-per-catch average in his senior year. For his career, he averaged a very high 17.8 yards-per-catch.
WalterFootball.com praised Parker's overall skill set:
"At the Combine, Parker ran faster than expected with an impressive 40 time. He is a polished receiver who isn't quite a game-breaker like Kevin White or Amari Cooper. Parker is a well-rounded receiver with size, quickness, hands, body control and run-after-the-catch ability. He needs to learn to run some routes he didn't in college.
"
Parker missed the first seven games of 2014 with a broken left foot. He returned to the field against N.C. State (9-132) and had an impressive game against Florida State (8-214). Parker only played in six games in 2014, but he racked up 43 receptions for 855 yards and five touchdowns.
Parker has excellent size at 6'3" and 209 pounds. He is very adept at fighting for and catching balls in traffic. He ran a 4.45 in the 40-yard-dash at the Combine, which is decent, though not at the elite level.
Although Parker would look good in a 49er uniform, it is possible that he could be gone before the 15th overall selection. In addition, the signing of free-agent wide receiver Torrey Smith and the need to bolster their defense probably means the 49ers will not go in this direction.
Probability of the 49ers drafting DeVante Parker: 10 percent
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Option 4: Trade Down and Select Eric Kendricks
4 of 5
In four years at UCLA, Eric Kendricks has given the Bruins consistent production, which culminated in a team-leading 101 solo tackles in 2015.
Listed at 6' and 232 pounds, Kendricks is smaller than the ideal inside linebacker. He does have good speed and agility, which helps him elude blockers and get to the ball. He also possesses excellent instincts that help him be in the right place at the right time.
NFLDraftScout.com has Kendricks ranked as the 40th overall prospect. Nevertheless, Kendricks is the best of a weak inside linebacker class.
Trading down a few spots and acquiring an additional third-round pick makes good sense for the 49ers, since they have so many holes to fill. Then, with their pick later in Round 1, drafting Kendricks makes good sense.
NFLDraftScout.com analysts Dane Brugler and Rob Rang provided this analysis of Kendricks' overall strengths and weaknesses.
The unexpected retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland have left the 49ers extremely thin at the inside linebacker position. Backup Michael Wilhoite will be forced into the starting lineup, and the 49ers are counting on the successful return of NaVorro Bowman.
Bowman is a major question mark, as he suffered a devastating knee injury in the 2013 NFC Championship game, which occurred in January of 2014. Bowman missed the entire 2014 season, and it remains to be seen how his knee will hold up under the rigors of a full NFL season.
The 49ers absolutely need to bolster the inside linebacker spot, and Kendricks would be a very good solution.
Probability of the 49ers trading down and drafting Eric Kendricks: 30 percent
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
Option 5: Stand Pat and Select Arik Armstead
5 of 5
With so many holes to fill, there are a wide array of options the 49ers must consider. The most likely scenario, however, is that they keep the 15th overall selection and draft Arik Armstead.
The 49ers defensive line needs to be solidified. Ray McDonald is gone, and the 49ers still have not heard from Justin Smith on whether or not he plans to retire. Even if Smith opts to return, Armsteak would be a good selection at No. 15. He would learn quickly with Smith there to mentor him.
The 49ers have an unproven defensive lineman, Tank Carradine, who will be given a chance to start at one of the end positions in the 49ers' base 3-4 defense.
Carradine was drafted in the second round of the 2013 draft, but he sat out the season due to injury. In 2014, he rarely played and did not distinguish himself when he did.
Darnell Dockett was signed as a free agent, but he is coming off an ACL injury and missed the entire 2014 season. In addition, Dockett will be 34 years of age when the season starts, and there is the question of how much he has left in the tank.
At 6'7" and 292 pounds, Armstead is a physical marvel. He also has excellent speed and agility for a big man. He ran a 5.10 time in the 40-yard-dash, which is very good for a defensive lineman.
Selecting Armstead with the 15th overall pick would significantly bolster the 49ers defensive line. He is the type of player that can be a fixture on the 49ers defensive front for the next decade.
While at Oregon, playing against high-level competition, Armstead had 46 tackles in 2014.
Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com had this to say about Armstead's strengths and weaknesses:
"STRENGTHS: Imposing frame with plenty of room for additional muscle mass. Broad shoulders and long limbs with good overall weight distribution throughout. Good functional strength to jolt would-be blockers and shed. Uses height advantage to locate the football quickly. Light on his feet for a man of his size. Asked to drop into coverage, showing surprising balance and coordination. Can spin free from blocks and shows a late burst to close on the ball. May be just scratching the surface of his potential.
WEAKNESSES: Not yet the sum of his parts. Lacks quick-twitch athleticism and is often the last lineman off the ball. Pops upright at the line of scrimmage, negating his own power. Reliant on a simple bull rush and needs a clear lane to get to the quarterback. Doesn't possess the speed to chase down ballcarriers outside of the tackle box. Still developing recognition of passing lanes.
Compares To: Calais Campbell, Cardinals -- Armstead hasn't yet shown the strength and physicality that has made Campbell one of the league's best 3-4 defensive ends but the blend of size and athleticism is undeniable."
Paul Gutierrez, ESPN San Francisco 49ers reporter, discussed Todd McShay's recent mock draft, which projected Armstead to be the 49ers pick.
Probability that the 49ers stand pat and draft Arik Armstead: 45 percent
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
