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Jockey Victor Espinoza leads American Pharoah to the finish to win the $1 million Arkansas Derby horse race at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., Saturday, April 11, 2015. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)
Jockey Victor Espinoza leads American Pharoah to the finish to win the $1 million Arkansas Derby horse race at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., Saturday, April 11, 2015. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)Danny Johnston/Associated Press

Kentucky Derby 2015: Complete Odds and Analysis for Top Contenders

Sean ODonnellApr 25, 2015

The Kentucky Derby never fails to captivate its massive audience, as the first leg of the Triple Crown features a field of talented contenders capable of crossing the finish line first at Churchill Downs. Of course, with so many strong horses set to take the track on May 2, plenty of debate leads up to the historic race.

Following the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby, the buildup to this year's race has been exceptionally intense, as two contenders appear to have horse racing enthusiasts torn. That's quite a different theme from the 2014 edition of the Kentucky Derby, as California Chrome seemed to be the unanimous odds-on favorite rather early.

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So, which horses are poised to make a run at the garland of roses this time around? Before we delve into some analysis for the top contenders, let's first take a look at the complete odds for the impending race at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby Odds

American Pharoah2-1Bob Baffert
Dortmund9-2Bob Baffert
Carpe Diem7-1Todd Pletcher
Mubtaahij12-1Mike de Kock
Materiality14-1Todd Pletcher
Firing Line16-1Simon Callaghan
Frosted16-1Kiaran McLaughlin
Upstart20-1Rick Violette Jr.
International Star25-1Mike Maker
El Kabeir33-1John Terranova II
Far Right33-1Ron Moquett
Itsaknockout40-1Todd Pletcher
Bolo40-1Carla Gaines
Danzig Moon40-1Mark Casse
Tencendur40-1George Weaver
Ocho Ocho Ocho50-1Jim Cassidy
Mr. Z50-1D. Wayne Lukas

All odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Contenders

American Pharoah

American Pharoah is the early favorite in the eyes of Vegas oddsmakers, and it's rather easy to see why. This three-year-old colt is unbeaten in his last four starts and is coming off an impressive eight-length win in the Arkansas Derby.

This colt loves to hang near the front of the pack, utilizing his smooth stride to maintain enough endurance to strike at the right time. That was the case in Arkansas, as he held his position behind the leader until the far turn where he finally made his move. Once in front, he proceeded to torch the field down the final stretch, putting together an incredible performance.

That race included Kentucky Derby contenders Far Right and Mr. Z, making the big win even more impressive. Here's a look at the race in its entirety:

Interestingly enough, American Pharoah's tendencies could be compared to last year's Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome. Both colts flourish by remaining near the front of the pack, waiting for their chances to burst to the front and never looking back.

Dortmund

If any horse has a very reasonable chance to take down American Pharoah at Churchill Downs, it's the powerful Dortmund. This three-year-old colt is coming off a brilliant showing of his own, earning a decisive victory in the Santa Anita Derby to remain unbeaten in his short career.

Dortmund may not be as graceful as American Pharoah, and he isn't overly muscular, but this tall colt has the ability to maintain a consistent stride and salvage enough endurance to make a great push down the final stretch. That was well on display during his wire-to-wire victory at Santa Anita. Take a look at the full race:

While that victory was certainly impressive, it's rather difficult to set the pace early and go on to win the Kentucky Derby against such a strong field. If Dortmund is to achieve that feat, he'll need to build up some strength in the days leading up to the race.

Carpe Diem

While most of the focus will be on the two aforementioned horses, Carpe Diem shouldn't be overlooked. This three-year-old colt also has been in fine form in April, putting on a sparkling performance to win the Blue Grass Stakes against two Kentucky Derby contenders, Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho.

Carpe Diem got out of the gate nicely at Keeneland and proceeded to battle with Ocho Ocho Ocho at the front of the pack throughout the first half-mile. The difference here was Carpe Diem's ability to finish strong, as he turned on the jets down the final stretch to notch a thrilling victory. Here's the race in full:

While it certainly appears that Carpe Diem is a good finisher, his previous questionable results are a concern, as he finished second to Texas Red in November in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park. Although, it's also difficult to overlook the momentum he's recently created with that big win at Keeneland.

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