Detroit Lions Viewing Guide: Preseason Week Three Verses The Colts

Tomorrow, at 1 p.m., Detroit Lions fans will get a look at a team they should be.

High octane with playmakers all over the offense, the Colts have built their team the right way. Replace the names and you can almost see what Matt Millen was attempting to do—and failing oh so poorly.

The unflappable, brilliant quarterback—Peyton Manning. But also what many thought Joey "Blue Skies" Harrington would be by now.

Offensive playmakers? Kevin Jones never turned out to be anything like an Edgerrin James and Charles Rogers was never Marvin Harrison.

As for the defenses, Rod Marinelli learned the Tampa Two from Tony Dungy. The Colts have the personnel to run it, the Lions never did.

Surely, for every decision Matt Millen bungled, Bill Polian has gotten one right. For every late round pick currently looking for a job after being drafted by Detroit, the Colts have diamonds in the rough.

The comparisons didn't end when Millen was mercy-fired last season. Fans who wanted the Lions to draft Stafford had Manning's college stats memorized for easy access. Louis Delmas, the short speedy playmaker, was considered a carbon copy of Bob Sanders. Undersized speedy pass rusher? Cliff Avril or Robert Mathis.

Yes Virginia, your team could have 114 wins in the past 10 seasons. Instead, your team, seemingly modeled in a very similar way, has 48.

The biggest problem is consistency. Bill Polian has had one plan and very little coaching turnover. Whereas, Matt Millen went to bat with many different coaches and schemes, all while valuing offensive skill players far more than anything else.

The Colts are a dynasty of solid NFL play. The Lions are just starting another rebuilding phase. So while you're watching the game tomorrow, make sure you pay a little extra attention to those dynamics.

What does Stafford have to do to truly be the next Manning? What are the noticeable differences between how the two teams handle pressure, failure, success, etc. What do the Colts have the Lions do not (besides talent)? 

Five Things To Watch For:

Calvin Johnson Vs. The Colts Secondary.

Megatron is five inches taller than either of the Colts' cornerbacks. This alone, plus Johnson's speed, will force Indianapolis out of their normal defense. Hayden and Jackson are both physical and will press Johnson physically while a safety helps over the top.

How Johnson fares, and how efficiently Culpepper and Stafford get the ball to him will give us a good idea how similar situations will play out against Minnesota and Chicago.

If Johnson is blanketed enough the QBs can't get him the ball, the Lions do not have enough fire power.

Lions Offensive Line Vs. The Colts Defensive Line

The Colts aren't going to do a lot of blitzing. This will give the Lions more freedom to release their tight ends and running backs into passing routes. For much of the game, we should be "treated" to watching five Lions linemen against four Colts linemen.

In the running game, things should certainly clear up—"should" being the operative word. If you watch closely, without all the blitzing and blitz pick up, you could essentially draw up the Lions basic running playbook.

Rather than watching where Kevin Smith runs, watch who we double team. Do we double team based on the running hole? Or, do we double team situationally based on matchups? Which linemen are charged with, and good at, getting to the second level?

Most importantly, were the roll outs from game two a short term, match up decision?  Or are we going to see Backus essential absolved from blocking his man for much of the season.

Pass Placement

When you're playing catch in the backyard, where do you throw the ball? At his feet? Above his head? No, for most of you, the ball is placed right at the hands at chest/eye level. If you're really good, you can even place the ball slightly to the other persons throwing shoulder—making the catch and throw motion that much simpler.

For years, in the NFL and in major colleges, the consensus has been that the QB should aim for the receiver's belt buckle or belly button. The reasoning was that quarterbacks tend to miss high and this technique saves interceptions and injured receivers.

More recently, coaches (especially those who teach the spread) have posited that low ball placement cause receivers to essentially be catching the ball in a blind spot caused by their helmet.

Stafford, at his best, is usually right around chest level, in stride. When he misses, like most quarterbacks, it is high (and usually long—because of the velocity). This is augmented by Georgia fans' biggest pet peeve, Stafford's tendency to shift his weight back as he throws.

After last week's debacle, I expect Stafford to have worked on ball placement and weight shift while throwing. If he brings that work to game situations, he could have a much better day.

Louis Delmas Vs. Joseph Addai

Delmas was the second biggest disappointment for me in week two. It was understandable for me that Cleveland's offense might be harder to read (and much faster) than Detroit's offense.

But for a heralded player like Delmas, it is always maddening to see great reports during the week and less-than-stellar play on the weekend.

Fans are excited about Delmas which is natural, but allow me to cut through the hype for a moment.

The NFC North isn't the MAC. Rookies make mistakes. It is important for Delmas to make mistakes in a big way—let me explain that.

If Delmas is going to make mistakes in the preseason of his rookie year, the coaching staff want them to be with the reckless abandon that he is known for—a trait no one wants to stifle.

If you have a player standing in the middle of traffic (as Delmas was often seen against the Browns), you don't have a teachable moment.

Lions fans need to be patient. If Delmas is lighting up blockers instead of ball carriers, biting too hard on play action or giving up passes because he went for the INT, no one should be mad. That was the scouting report on him all along.

Soon the patience shall be rewarded when Delmas begins to play as smart as he is aggressive. If you take away the aggressiveness, that isn't the player you drafted.

Additionally, we all know Delmas can light up Aaron Brown and Aveion Cason...but the ball of muscle that is Joseph Addai? That will give us a much better look at how he will perform against Forte, Peterson and Grant.

The Lions Pass Rush

I, personally, am giving Gunther Cunningham a preseason pass this year. There is absolutely no reason to give opponents any tape on the effectiveness of your blitz packages.

Having New Orleans and Minnesota clueless as how to block those packages could keep us into those games

I'm also, personally, giving the Lions defensive line a pass for their game against Cleveland—a team which was among the best in 2008 at protecting their quarterback and who added two (three?) starters in Floyd "Porkchop" Womack and John St. Clair (Alex Mack?).

This brings us to the Colts who have a decent offensive line, but a quarterback who simply refuses to be sacked. Only Tom Brady is better at moving within the pocket to avoid the rush.

The Lions will probably not get to Manning, but Sorgi or Painter should be easier to bring down.

Success by the first team should be measured in terms of how active Manning had to be to avoid the rush. It doesn't matter if he doesn't get sacked or still completes a lot of passes, he's Peyton Manning. But if the ends can maintain the edge, forcing Manning to step up and collapsing the dreaded Indy "Stretch" play, it will have been a victory.

Even if the Lions lose big.

News and Notes:

• Per Tom Kowalski and John Niyo, it is official. Daunte Culpepper will get the start this Saturday. Schwartz says not to read anything into it. His longterm decision has not been made.
• Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry will not play. This should be taken into account (along with the Colts efficiency) when gauging the defense—both would play if this was the regular season.
• Dennis Northcutt is still injured. Expect heavy doses of special team action from "safe" guys—Cason and Looker.
• The Lions have signed Rufus Alexander, a third year linebacker out of Oklahoma, releasing Allen Ervin in the process. Alexander should help some of the special team coverage woes. Ervin has been injured and will be snuck on to the practice squad if the Lions are able.
  

Finally, if you're in an area where you cannot typically see Lions games, contact me at [e-mail] and I can let you on to some of my "secrets."