The Biggest Offseason Need for Every 2015 NBA Draft Lottery Team
If you're in the lottery, you have a need that must be addressed.
It's as simple as that, even for teams such as the Oklahoma City Thunder, who only fell out of the playoff picture due to a never-ending stream of injuries—and barely missed making the field anyway. And if an OKC squad that figures to feature a healthy Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka has a need for improvement, then so too does your favorite non-playoff squad.
Of course, these can be addressed at any point in the offseason.
Thinking about lottery teams implies that we're focusing on the draft, but that's a misconception here. We're simply homing in on the worst squads in the league (the lottery-bound ones) while the others compete in the playoffs, looking at what they can do to improve over the summer. Whether they're getting better by taking players in the draft or dipping into the free-agency pool is ultimately irrelevant.
Address these key areas of concern, and improvement is bound to follow.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Offensive Wing Player
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2014-15 Record: 45-37
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 0.5 percent
The Oklahoma City Thunder clearly aren't going to have a repeat of their 2014-15 campaign when the next season rolls around. Kevin Durant should be much healthier after allowing his foot to heal fully over the hottest months of the year, while Serge Ibaka, Russell Westbrook and what seems like everyone else on the roster won't all miss time.
Hopefully.
Even though OKC will be selecting at the tail end of the lottery—barring a math-defying miracle that moves it into the top three—the Thunder aren't really a non-playoff team. This is a championship-caliber squad that only needs to retain its own free agents (Enes Kanter, in particular) and make some minor moves.
Chief among those would be finding an offensive-minded wing player to form a rotation with Andre Roberson, who shined on the defensive end but doesn't bring the floor-stretching ability that will help move the opposition's attention away from the superstars.
Kyle Singler is serviceable. Jeremy Lamb would be as well, but Scott Brooks never seemed interested in letting him learn on the job, and there's no telling how a new coach will feel. But neither possesses much upside at this point, and one more player capable of filling a sixth-man role would do wonders for the already potent offense of the Thunder.
Phoenix Suns: Shooters
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2014-15 Record: 39-43
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 0.6 percent
As Jeff Hornacek told Bright Side of the Sun's Dave King, the Phoenix Suns need to add more shooters into the mix during the offseason:
"We have two guys [Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight] who can really penetrate, really good on pick and rolls. We need some shooting. If you have shooters to go with those main guys who can really penetrate, its tough. How do you guard it?
Just look at the Clippers from last night. They've got shooters all over the place. They've got a guy who can go to the rim and catch lobs, a point guard who can break down pick and rolls and they basically get whatever they want. We just need to try to add some of those pieces.
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According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Suns actually finished in the top 10 for made triples in 2014-15. However, this was largely because they lofted them up so frequently; Phoenix ranked No. 20 in three-point percentage, knocking down only 34.1 percent of its tries from beyond the arc.
In fact, just three players made more than 1.5 deep looks per game.
Brandon Knight led the squad during his second-half stint in the desert, hitting 1.9 in his average outing. However, he's a restricted free agent, and while he's a fairly safe bet to return, he connected at only a 31.3 percent clip. Second was Gerald Green, another free agent but one who's much more of a flight risk after his woeful defense led to fewer minutes in the desert. Third comes Isaiah Thomas, who's obviously no longer with the team.
If the Suns are interested in getting out of the tail end of the lottery, adding capable marksmen is a great strategy, especially with so many other pieces already in place.
Utah Jazz: Best Players Available
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2014-15 Record: 38-44
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 0.7 percent
The Utah Jazz are in a strange position.
Not only did they improve substantially during the second half of the season, submitting suffocating defensive performances while rocketing up the Western Conference standings, but they have a potential star set to return next year. Alec Burks played in only 27 games before hurting his shoulder and missing the rest of the year.
With Burks on the floor, the Jazz have a deep threat who can also handle the rock, which helps solve two of their primary concerns. And that means they have a potential player of the future at each and every position in the lineup, which is something not many lottery teams can say.
At point guard? Dante Exum should be far less raw, while Trey Burke needs to figure out his shooting stroke in order to remain part of the plans. Burks is going to settle in at the 2, just as Gordon Hayward will at the 3. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors will form a terrifying frontcourt combination on the defensive end.
Point guard is the weakest of the bunch, but it's not a primary point of emphasis, due to Exum's presence. Giving up on a 19-year-old floor general one year after using a No. 5 pick on him would be silly, especially since raw play wasn't exactly unexpected, what with his dearth of high-level experience.
The Jazz have the luxury of being able to look at the best player available late in a fairly deep draft class, doing so regardless of position. Seeking out depth and gathering more upside is the top strategy, but, as Grantland's Zach Lowe suggests, they could also make some splashy trades.
Indiana Pacers: Offenisve Threat in the Frontcourt
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2014-15 Record: 38-44
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 0.8 percent
With George Hill looking quite good while running the show for the Indiana Pacers and Paul George set to be fully healthy at the start of the 2015-16 season, barring any unforeseen offseason setbacks, the Indiana backcourt is going to be much more deadly.
But the frontcourt? Yikes.
It's fine on the defensive end, assuming Roy Hibbert does return to the organization. If he opts out and signs with a new team, everything changes, but it's hard to see him turning down so much guaranteed money when his stock is at its lowest. Even if he returns, who's going to score?
David West averaged just 11.7 points, and he's going to turn 35 years old before the beginning of the next campaign. Hibbert dropped in 10.6, but he's not exactly the type of big man you want serving as a go-to scoring option.
Beyond that duo, Luis Scola scored 9.6 points during the average contest, and he'll also turn 35 before the 2015 champion is determined. Who else is there? Lavoy Allen?
Improving the offense has been a heavy point of emphasis for years now, but it's never been more necessary than right now in an aging frontcourt that was never too good at scoring in the first place.
Miami Heat: Depth, Depth and More Depth
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2014-15 Record: 37-45
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 1.1 percent
When the Miami Heat's starters are healthy, they're going to be truly dangerous. At every position, there's a player with ginormous upside and/or a stellar pedigree, and the combination is going to be frightening on both ends of the court.
Goran Dragic, assuming he returns to South Beach rather than flee for one of the other teams on his infamous list of preferred destinations (originally reported by Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski), is a crafty, slithery guard who can lead a top-notch offense while at least trying on the defensive end. Dwyane Wade isn't just a future Hall of Famer but a smart player who's learning how to use old-man moves to make up for declining athleticism.
Luol Deng—who could also leave during the offseason by turning down his player option, mind you—is but a shell of his old self, thanks to massive amounts of wear and tear on his tires from his days serving under Tom Thibodeau and the Chicago Bulls. However, he can work as a lockdown wing defender who thrives in a tertiary offensive role, and that would be his exact job when all of the expected Miami starters are healthy.
Then, we have the bigs.
Chris Bosh was having yet another impressive season before he was hospitalized with blood clots in his lungs. If he's back to 100 percent, he's a bona fide All-Star candidate, one who will look even better on a team with more offensive options. The thought of pick-and-roll/pops that feature him and Dragic is simply incredible. Meanwhile, Hassan Whiteside was one of this year's biggest breakout players and should continue his two-way excellence in 2015-16.
The lone problem is that every single one of these players is a bit prone to injury, and there's not much depth behind them. Obviously, changing that needs to be the biggest priority for Pat Riley and the rest of the Miami front office.
Charlotte Hornets: Someone Who Can Make 3s
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2014-15 Record: 33-49
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 1.7 percent
Gerald Henderson is very much an old-school 2-guard, one who would prefer to cut to the hoop or take those mid-range jumpers that so many teams are steering away from rather than let fly from beyond the arc. Despite playing in 80 games, he made 45 triples throughout the season, and that's actually a new high-water mark for his career.
Lance Stephenson wasn't old school. He was just atrocious.
While taking 1.7 three-point attempts per game, last offseason's big addition hit them at a 17.1 percent clip. Among the many qualified players in NBA history who made less than 20 percent of their downtown looks, no one had ever taken so many shots.
Is it any wonder the Charlotte Hornets need to find players who can space the court? Their 2-guards certainly can't. Their starting small forward (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) still has a broken jumper. Their point guard (Kemba Walker) is a gunner who's not exactly the most efficient scorer. And to top it all off, their bigs are better in the paint.
Only the Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves made fewer threes last season, and it wasn't due to a lack of effort. The Hornets fired away, but their efforts were largely futile, leading to an NBA-worst 31.8 percent mark from beyond the arc.
For Charlotte, it's time to adapt or die. Well, continue dying in this case.
It's a lot easier to exterminate a nest of Hornets when everyone is confined to the same area of the court—inside the arc.
Detroit Pistons: Adding Another Forward
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2014-15 Record: 32-50
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 2.8 percent
Whether Greg Monroe—now an unrestricted free agent after taking the qualifying offer last offseason—stays put in the Motor City or heads to a new location, the Detroit Pistons need to upgrade at least one of their forward positions. Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley goes over some of the options who could be hitting the open market:
"The Pistons still need to fix both forward spots. Bringing Michigan native Draymond Green back home would be a dream addition, but he's a tough get as a restricted free agent. Veteran Luol Deng might be a more realistic target, and he'd still meet the demand for tighter defense and better shooting at either forward position.
Van Gundy could add a second shooter to his forward ranks by targeting Gerald Green, DeMarre Carroll, Iman Shumpert or Tobias Harris.
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There will be options in the draft as well, especially since the Pistons figure to hold on to their top-10 pick and have a small chance to move up when the ping-pong balls drop. However they address the issue, it's clear that they don't want to be going into the next season with Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince competing for a starting role.
The Pistons have plenty of decisions to make this offseason, including the extent to which they pursue Monroe and how much they're willing to pay for Reggie Jackson. But this will be a failed offseason without an upgrade at either the 3 or 4.
Or, in an ideal world, both.
Denver Nuggets: Identity
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2014-15 Record: 30-52
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 4.3 percent
It's not about talent right now. The Denver Nuggets have plenty of that.
Ty Lawson is one of the more underrated players in the sport, capable of leading the offensive charge by pacing his team in scoring and still handing out double-digit dimes in any given game. Kenneth Faried may have sputtered under Brian Shaw's tutelage, but we saw his insane upside during FIBA play, and he came on strong during the end of the season.
Jusuf Nurkic appears to be a potential centerpiece, and it's far too soon to give up on Gary Harris after a poor rookie showing.
The pieces are in place here. Maybe not for a contender but at least for a team moving in the right direction with young talent and money to spend, as well as some enduringly movable pieces such as Wilson Chandler. Now, direction is needed.
The Nuggets had no clue who they wanted to be during much of the 2014-15 campaign. The roster and Shaw clashed incessantly, while the front office built a quick, speedy team and then wanted to trade for the plodding Brook Lopez.
Throwing together talented pieces in hodgepodge fashion just doesn't work. Talent doesn't necessarily trump a dominant system in the NBA.
Now, Denver's first offseason priority must be realizing that and then figuring out what kind of team it wants to build.
Sacramento Kings: Appease DeMarcus Cousins
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2014-15 Record: 29-53
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 6.3 percent
The Sacramento Kings can't afford to let DeMarcus Cousins slip through their fingers. But even with a new head coach in George Karl in charge, one who can help bring the best out of this big man—see: remarkable triple-doubles down the stretch—that's the path they're headed down.
In many ways, Cousins is a lot like Kevin Love.
The two bigs don't play similar games. Not even close. But the Minnesota Timberwolves failed to put the proper pieces around Love for years, leading to gaudy statistics and a whole lot of losing.
Sound familiar?
If the Kings are going to remedy this, they have to find another big man who can provide the right type of production, and that can come in one of two ways.
Whether through the draft or free agency, the first option is adding a power forward who can shoot the ball from the perimeter, thus spacing out a defense and making it easier for Cousins to earn one-on-one situations. The second is putting a rim-protecting presence around him.
After all, the Kings struggled tremendously in both those areas.
They finished in the bottom 10 for three-point percentage and made more triples than only the Memphis Grizzlies and Timberwolves. On the other end, NBA.com's SportVU data shows that Sacramento allowed opponents to shoot 53.3 percent at the rim, giving it a worse percentage against than every team but the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Wolves.
Changing one of those two weaknesses into a strength—or at least a passable aspect of the team's performance—is a necessity. Of course, changing both would be even better still.
Orlando Magic: Add Floor-Spacing Threats
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2014-15 Record: 25-57
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 8.8 percent
The Orlando Magic have plenty of intriguing pieces in place, but not many of them are great shooters.
Nikola Vucevic is a nightly 20-10 threat, though his bread and butter comes inside the arc and much closer to the basket. His mid-range game is developing quickly, but the Magic haven't yet tested whether he can make noise from three-point range, and it doesn't seem likely that he can right now.
Aaron Gordon is going to be entrenched in one of the forward spots, but offense in general is a struggle for him. He's at his best when expending energy on defense and scoring a few easy points on athletic cuts to the hoop.
Then we have the backcourt. Elfrid Payton has no idea how to hit jumpers, and while Victor Oladipo has improved substantially in that regard, he's not going to knock down very many triples during any given game.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote earlier this year, "Defenders often treat Victor Oladipo the same way [as Payton] when he takes his turn at the wheel, even though Oladipo has improved his three-point stroke in Year 2. And when Oladipo has the ball, that means Payton is off hiding on the perimeter—where nobody guards him."
Finding an offensive piece who can help open up room for the guards' drives to the hoop is absolutely vital.
And if you're noticing a theme here, that's a good thing. The NBA is quite clearly trending toward becoming even more of a perimeter-shooting league, so it stands to reason that many of the Association's lottery squads need to catch up and begin drilling more shots from outside the paint without relying on those inefficient mid-range jumpers as a crutch.
Los Angeles Lakers: Keep Their Pick
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2014-15 Record: 21-61
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 11.9 percent
As ESPN.com's Baxter Holmes wrote after the Los Angeles Lakers finished the least successful season in franchise history, keeping the No. 4 pick in the 2015 NBA draft is not a guarantee:
"The Lakers will have an 82.8 percent chance of retaining their 2015 first-round pick, which they would convey to the Philadelphia 76ers if the pick falls out of the first five this year.
The 76ers acquired the right to the selection at the trade deadline from the Phoenix Suns, who obtained it in the 2012 trade that sent Steve Nash to the Lakers.
Recent history suggests there is still some cause for worry. In the past five years, two teams (2010 Warriors and 2011 Wizards) that had a pre-lottery position of fourth dropped to sixth.
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Though it's completely outside their control, the Lakers have to retain every asset at their disposal, especially a potentially elite one such as a top pick in the draft. After all, this organization is a bit devoid of talent, as it's hard to find too many keepers.
Beyond Kobe Bryant, Jordan Clarkson (one helluva draft-day steal) and Julius Randle, who's even guaranteed to be on the roster and in a featured role? The Purple and Gold have a pretty simple strategy this offseason—add as much talent as possible, and conserve some money for future free-agency classes if they strike out on the biggest names, especially since the cap is only going to rise.
Philadelphia 76ers: Offensive-Minded Point Guard
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2014-15 Record: 18-64
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 15.6 percent
Even when Tony Wroten has recovered from his ACL tear, the Philadelphia 76ers will need to find an upgrade at point guard. They desperately need someone who can hit some outside shots while leading the charge for an offense that must improve if Philly is going to look more respectable.
Whether that's D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay or some free-agency pickup, it doesn't matter. The Sixers, assuming they actually want to get better next season and won't remain mired in a perpetual rebuild, will already have Wroten, Robert Covington, Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid working for them. Now, it's time to complete the rotation with high-upside players while waiting for Dario Saric to make the journey across the pond.
Lest we forget, the defense in the City of Brotherly Love was actually a solid unit. It allowed only 104.8 points per 100 possessions, which gave the Sixers a No. 13 finish across the league. Meanwhile, the offense was historically bad, thanks to a putrid 95.5 offensive rating.
Compared to the league average (105.6), the Sixers had an adjusted offensive efficiency (ORtng+) of just 90.44. That's not just the worst mark of 2014-15; it's the fourth-worst ORtng+ of all time, beating out only the 1998-99 Chicago Bulls, 1987-88 Los Angeles Clippers and 2002-03 Denver Nuggets.
Now, it's time to get a floor general who can have that side of the ball trending in the right direction. Clearly, he's not on the Sixers roster at the moment.
New York Knicks: Just Get Talent
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2014-15 Record: 17-65
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 19.9 percent
The New York Knicks aren't exactly in an enviable position, as they're coming off arguably the most disappointing season in franchise history and couldn't even manage to earn the top lottery odds after some late-season bursts of competence. But at least they can just approach the draft and free agency without too many restrictions.
They just want to acquire talent.
It really doesn't even matter which position it comes at. Carmelo Anthony is capable of playing either forward position, even if Derek Fisher inexplicably limited him to the 3 far too often. Langston Galloway doesn't have to be entrenched at shooting guard, either.
Plus, the Knicks have quite a few ways to add to the minimal amounts of talent on the roster. Not only do they have the second-best chance of earning the top pick in the 2015 NBA draft, but they're going to have plenty of money to burn. Only Anthony, Galloway, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jose Calderon and Cleanthony Early have guaranteed salaries for next season.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Internal Improvement
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2014-15 Record: 16-66
Odds at No. 1 Pick: 25 percent
If the Minnesota Timberwolves hadn't been decimated by injuries, they would have been far more competitive during the 2014-15 campaign, even if they were never going to be a playoff squad in a tough Western Conference. Losing Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic—among others—was essentially the death knell in a quest for mere mediocrity.
But now, that puts the Wolves in an interesting position.
They have a roster filled with young players who have two-way upside. Andrew Wiggins, the presumed favorite for Rookie of the Year, looks like a future superstar, and he'll be playing alongside guys such as Zach LaVine, Rubio, Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad and more.
So, where exactly does Minnesota need to focus the efforts? Internal improvement is going to be key for this franchise, and that needs to be the goal of the offseason, as the Wolves aren't going to make many splashes in free agency and already have so many intriguing incumbent pieces.
Of course, Flip Saunders still has the No. 1 pick in the draft to work with, assuming the lottery odds play out as is most mathematically likely. Lucky him, because he'll just get to take whoever he feels is the best player on the board, whether that's Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns or whoever else might rise up and challenge for the top spot.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
