UFC 186 Bold Predictions: Can Mighty Mouse and Rampage Jackson Save Saturday?

We haven’t even seen the fights yet, and UFC 186 is already among the UFC’s wildest events of the year.

What was originally meant to be a championship doubleheader is now reduced to one. An injury to bantamweight titlist T.J. Dillashaw swept a proposed rematch with Renan Barao off the table until July, leaving Demetrious Johnson’s flyweight defense against Kyoji Horiguchi to fend for itself on Saturday.

Then there is Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, who was on, off and back on the card according to the whims of various New Jersey state judges. His current status is "on," as the Bellator defector is thought to be headed for a catchweight showdown with Fabio Maldonado, at least as of this writing.

Add in the announcement on Wednesday that the UFC is currently on the outs with Dish Network and this card starts to seem like a real goat rope.

Nonetheless, even the most beleaguered cards deserve bold predictions.

Here, Bleacher Report MMA Lead Writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden provide them for you.

Don't be scared, homies. Read on...

Prediction: It All Proves a Bit Too Much for Kyoji Horiguchi.

John Locher/Associated Press

Chad

The odds of Kyoji Horiguchi becoming UFC flyweight champion on Saturday night are long. Super long. As of this moment, in fact, he is something approaching a 6-1 underdog to titlist Demetrious Johnson, according to Odds Shark. That’s...that’s not good, though at least some of the padding on those long odds is due to the fact that Horiguchi is a relative unknown.

Part of the reason this bout smacks of a mismatch is that so few people know Horiguchi that they just assume he’s another random opponent for the fight company’s dominant 125-pound champion. These days, MMA oddsmakers generally know their stuff—or, at least, they’re getting better all the time—but in this instance I have to disagree.

I’m not saying Horiguchi beats Johnson—this is bold predictions, not insane predictions—but the 24-year-old native of Gunma, Japan, gives Johnson better than a 6-1 fight. This one will be closer than people expect, and Horiguchi might even take a round or two from Johnson with his aggressive striking style and power grappling.

In the end, Johnson will win the fight in all the ways he normally wins fights. Horiguchi is just a youngster, after all, and his shot at the gold comes in just his second appearance on a UFC pay-per-view. His other Octagon go-rounds aired on Fight Pass, Fox Sports 2 and Facebook, so the stage may prove too big for him at this juncture.

Mighty Mouse retains, but a lot of people see Horiguchi and wonder, where did this kid come from?

Jonathan

That someone could main event a UFC pay-per-view without ever appearing on Fox Sports 1 or Fox is a stunning condemnation of UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby. It's unacceptable. We talk a lot about the flyweights failing at the box office—but this is just another example of the little guys being refused even the chance of success.

Because of this, at least in part, we don't really know what Horiguchi has for Johnson. Those fights on Fight Pass and Fox Sports 2 were against, well, Fight Pass-level fighters like Jon Delos Reyes and Dustin Pague, who lost four in a row before finally getting the boot back to the regional scene (where he proceeded to lose again).

With some pop in his punches, some clear athleticism and no track record of success, Horiguchi steps into the cage against the best flyweight in the world. His first fight against a ranked opponent will be in the main event in front of the entire sport.

Good luck, kid!

Prediction: Michael Bisping Can't Defy Father Time.

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Jonathan

Michael Bisping, the fighter who launched a thousand memes, has "it." Some fighters just do: Brock Lesnar, Conor McGregor, Chael Sonnen.

"It" in this case isn't the same "it" Paige VanZant has, the bubbling personality and classic cheerleader looks that have her poised to launch into Ronda Rousey's rarefied air. Bisping, instead, has a different gift—the gift of a punchable face.

To his credit, like fellow The Ultimate Fighter alum Josh Koscheck, he's recognized this in himself and embraced it. He's used this special talent for smirking and infuriating everyone around him to build a solid career in the sport. He's reached the precipice of greatness. How many can say that much?

Unfortunately for Bisping and those who love to hate him, the roller coaster ride is slowing down and cruising to a stop. Pretty soon a carny will ask him to unbuckle and make way for someone else to enjoy the thrill.

At 36, he's peaked physically. Since 2011 he's been a fighter who wins one then loses one, going 4-4 in his last eight. That's the sign of a fighter on the decline. At UFC 186 he'll learn the same hard lesson his contemporaries learned last week on Fox—it's time for a new generation to shine.

Chad

It’s possible this is it for the Brit. Bisping has been in the UFC for nearly 10 years, and this will be fight No. 33 for him. In this sport, everybody has an expiration date, and typically people don’t realize they have passed it until somebody makes painful, humbling examples of them.

As I glance down through that three-year .500 stretch you mention, though, I see a crop of mostly respectable losses—Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy and testosterone-enriched versions of Chael Sonnen and Vitor Belfort.

Maybe he’s lost a half-step, but Bisping has yet to have that one, disastrous performance where he loses to someone he should absolutely beat and thereby crosses over from fringy contender-type to a guy who’s just sticking around to cash in on the UFC’s new sponsor pay structure.

Maybe C.B. Dollaway is the guy to usher in the final days of Bisping’s career, but I’ll have to see it to believe it. Give me The Count by close but clear-cut unanimous decision.

Prediction: Everything’s Coming Up Rampage!

Eric Jamison/Associated Press

Chad

Quinton Ramone Jackson's charmed stumble through life rolls on. Here's a guy who has more lives than the average alley cat and has been granted more chances than the worst hitter on a child’s noncompetitive tee-ball team. Now, it looks like he’s going to get at least one more swing, after a temporary injunction barring him from taking on Fabio Maldonado at UFC 186 was lifted on Tuesday.

This is bad news for Bellator MMA, which sought (and initially obtained) legal relief from the notion that Jackson and the UFC could unilaterally decide he was free of his Bellator contract and book him in a fight before courts could rule on it. The smaller company’s lawsuit against Jackson still exists, but if he’s allowed to fight in the Octagon in the interim, I’m tempted to ask what the point of it is exactly.

This is also bad news for replacement fighter Steve Bosse, who had already un-retired for the opportunity to replace Jackson and finally live out the dream of fighting in the UFC. Hopefully, the organization will still float the guy the cash he was promised.

Additionally, it’s also bad news for me, since I’d already written a bolder than bold prediction about how Bosse was going to upset Maldonado on pay-per-view this weekend. That pick will now never see the light of day.

But, I suppose if I was willing to pick Bosse over Maldonado, I have to admit that even a poorly trained, questionably motivated, late-notice Jackson likely rolls through the 35-year-old Brazilian just as easily.

Why? Because Rampage gets to do whatever he wants to do, always, all the time.

Jonathan

Rampage is a guy who couldn't even be bothered to train hard for UFC title defenses in his prime, losing the strap to Forrest Griffin in a fight that doubled as a 25-minute shoulder shrug.

Today? Headed toward 37, with his cat-like quickness diminished and his trademark slams just a faded memory? A week removed from being pulled from the card after getting wobbled in a court of law?

This is going to be Rampage at his absolute worst.

Of course, that is quite likely still enough to get past Fabio Maldonado, an ordinary fighter in every sense. Rampage may be plummeting toward the bottom, but at least he started from the penthouse. He should have more than enough left to lazily dispatch the Brazilian on his way to self-destruction.

What gets me about Rampage is his real belief in his own victimhood. Fat, disinterested and inexplicably mad at the world, he doesn't seem to get that he's one of the few who are blessed and skilled enough to make a good living at this sport.

When the end comes, and it's coming soon enough, his will be a story of potential squandered. And that's a true shame.

Prediction: Sarah Kaufman and Alexis Davis Make the UFC Look Foolish

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Jonathan

Last week the UFC put its best foot forward as an organization, promoting a card on Fox that featured compelling matchmaking, bouts starring recognizable fighters with a certain cultural currency in the sport. Best of all? It was completely free.

That example, so fresh in our minds, makes this UFC 186 abomination particularly galling. The card is headlined by a fight no one demanded and only gets worse from there, with or without the bloated remains of the meat sack who used to be Rampage Jackson.

It's an event that would be a hard sell on Fox Sports 1. Putting it on PPV and asking your most loyal fans to spend their hard-earned money on it is criminal. Or, at least, it should be. Vote Snowden/Dundas in 2016.

With that context as your guide, the decision to put Alexis Davis and Sarah Kaufman on the event's preliminary card is borderline unconscionable. If, and work with me here, we pretend the UFC is a real sport, this is the most relevant and athletically compelling bout beyond the headliner. Besides the flyweight champion, the two women are the highest-ranked fighters on the entire card.

Relegating them to the prelims sends a clear message to the audience and other female fighters—you don't really count.

Worse still, it's a fight with a ton of potential as pure, visceral entertainment as well. The last time these two fought, it was a bloody spectacle, with both women showing the kind of heart and warrior spirit that inspire us to write about this stuff in the first place.

This fight doesn't just deserve the main card—it demands it. And on Saturday night, Davis and Kaufman will prove it to the world.

Chad

There’s no doubt Kaufman and Davis deserve to be on the main card, and that would still be true in a world where T.J. Dillashaw hadn’t been injured and Rampage Jackson hadn’t briefly been forced out of action.

I believe that wholeheartedly, but—a little like last week—I can’t really bring myself to get that worked up about where fights are slated on which card. Did I chuckle and roll my eyes when I saw that Davis vs. Kaufman is playing second fiddle even to Patrick Cote vs. Joe Riggs? I did, but that’s about as far as it went.

Davis and Kaufman are probably going to have a good fight. It’ll be on cable TV, so more people will probably (certainly?) get to see it than those on the PPV main card. That counts for something, right?