NASCAR at Richmond 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for Toyota Owners 400

Even though they retained their 1-2-3 position in the Sprint Cup standings, can Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. bounce back from their respective bad performances at Bristol this past Sunday?

That will be one of the biggest questions heading into Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

All three drivers were the last to have consecutive top-10 finishes in each of the first seven races. But not on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway, where Truex finished 29th, Harvick 38th and Logano 40th.

You also need to keep your eyes out for Jimmie Johnson.

The six-time Sprint Cup champ overcame being involved in two wrecks and a pit-road penalty to finish second at Bristol.

On the final restart and the closing two laps of the green-white-checkered outcome, Johnson came out of virtually nowhere to almost steal the win away from Matt Kenseth.

If there had been maybe three or four more laps, Johnson potentially could have won Sunday’s race.

By the Numbers: Richmond International Raceway

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Richard Petty holds the record for most Cup wins at Richmond: 13.

Toyota Owners 400

Place: Richmond International Raceway

Date: Saturday, April 25

Time: 7 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, 7 p.m. ET

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM Channel 90

Distance: 400 laps, 300 miles (¾-mile track)

Defending race winner: Joey Logano

Youngest Richmond winner: Richard Petty (23 years, 9 months, 28 days)

Oldest Richmond winner: Harry Gant (51 years, 7 months, 28 days)

Defending pole winner: Kyle Larson, 126.880 mph (04/25/2014; qualifying rained out, pole set by fastest practice speed)

Youngest Richmond pole winner: Brian Vickers (20 years, 6 months, 21 days)

Oldest Richmond pole winner: Mark Martin (53 years, 3 months, 19 days)

Track Notes

• 53 drivers have won poles at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (8). Jeff Gordon has most poles among active drivers (6)
• Race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph; 9/6/1997) 
• Qualifying record: Jeff Gordon (130.599 mph; 9/8/2013)
• There have been 117 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Richmond International Raceway, from 1953 through 2014
• 50 different drivers have won at Richmond International Raceway, led by Richard Petty (13 wins). Kyle Busch leads active drivers (4)
• Richard Petty has the most top-five finishes (34). Jeff Gordon leads active drivers (18)
• Richard Petty has the most top-10 finishes (41) at Richmond. Jeff Gordon leads active drivers (28)

Statistics courtesy of NASCAR media relations.

Key Storylines

Wade Payne/Associated Press/Associated Press

Now that he's broken his 51-race winless streak, can Matt Kenseth make it two wins in a row Saturday night?

Bristol bounce-back?

As we said in the opening slide, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. each suffered their first non-top-10 finish of the season at Bristol. Now we’ll see if they can rebound.

For Harvick, it’s especially significant, as prior to Bristol, he had nine top-two finishes in his previous 10 races (dating back to the last three of 2014).

Who takes Kyle Busch’s place?

With Kyle Busch still out indefinitely, who will pick up the mantle from him, given that he leads all active drivers at RIR with four wins. Could it be his brother Kurt? How about Tony Stewart, who typically does well at the ¾-mile track? What about Brad Keselowski, who won last summer’s pre-Chase finale?

Could Jeff Gordon get his first win of 2015?

Gordon had a terrible start to the season, wrecking at Daytona (finished 33rd) and Atlanta (41st). After finishing 18th at Las Vegas, the retiring four-time champ has been on a phenomenal run, with finishes of ninth, 10th, ninth, seventh and third (at Bristol) in his last five races.

On top of that outstanding showing, Gordon has climbed from 36th in the standings after Atlanta to ninth after Bristol. You can just sense a win is coming—and coming soon. Ironically, in 44 career starts at Richmond, Gordon has just two wins, with his last coming in 2000. If anyone is overdue, it's Gordon.

Can Matt Kenseth make it two in a row?

After (finally) breaking a 51-race winless streak on Sunday at Bristol, can Matt Kenseth make it 2-of-2 at Richmond? History isn’t exactly on his side: In 30 prior starts there, Kenseth has just one win, five top-five and 13 top-10 finishes.

Could Danica Patrick earn her first Cup win on Saturday? 

I keep saying that Danica Patrick is going to win in 2015, and I believe she’ll do it on a short track like Martinsville, Bristol or Richmond. Thus far this season, she’s finished seventh at Martinsville and was ninth on Sunday at Bristol.

Could the third short track, Richmond, be the charm? If Patrick indeed wins, don’t say I didn't tell you so.

Drivers to Watch

LM Otero/Associated Press

Kasey Kahne is looking for a second career win at Richmond, and his first there since his first-ever Sprint Cup triumph in 2006.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Junior loves Richmond International Raceway. If he could race there 36 times a year, he’d probably be the happiest driver on the circuit. Earnhardt has three career wins there, but he hasn’t won since the spring 2006 race.

Much like Jeff Gordon, Junior is definitely overdue. After having won four races last season, we thought Earnhardt would have won at least once by now. Richmond is the end of the first quarter of the season, and it would be a great place for Earnhardt to finally earn win No. 1 of 2015.

Tony Stewart

We all know how much of a struggle it has been for Stewart this season. But he could make a big turnaround on Saturday night at a track that has been great to him. In 31 career starts, Stewart has three Sprint Cup wins, 11 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes.

A Richmond win would do so much for the confidence of Stewart and his team—not to mention it would likely assure him a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup for the first time since the 2012 season (yes, it’s been that long).

Ryan Newman

Newman and short tracks go together like bread and butter. He grew up on them in his native Indiana and always feels at home on them. One of his favorite tracks, Richmond could very well be the place where Newman finally breaks through for his first Sprint Cup win since capturing the 2013 Brickyard 400.

Newman has one career win at Richmond, and he has been knocking on the door of late for a second one, having one top-five and three other top-10 finishes in his last five starts there.

Carl Edwards

Edwards boldly predicted before the season that he’d win 10 races and the Sprint Cup championship in 2015. Well, we’re eight races into the 36-race campaign, and Cousin Carl has done little to come close to winning one race.

Let’s do the math: Based upon his prediction, he now has 28 races to get 10 wins. That’s a pretty tall order. Edwards better start reaching Victory Lane, or he could suffer the ultimate embarrassment: failing to make the Chase due to the fact he didn’t win even one race.

Kasey Kahne

Richmond was the sight of Kahne’s first career Sprint Cup win (2005). That’s the good news. But since then, Kahne has never returned to Victory Lane there, and he has just four top-five and seven top-10 finishes in 22 career starts there.

Even worse, Kahne has really struggled there recently. In his last seven races at RIR, Kahne has just one top-five finish. Like Earnhardt and Gordon, he’s overdue for a decent finish, if not a win.

Favorites

Associated Press/Associated Press

If Denny Hamlin is healthy Saturday, he would love to win once again on his home track.

Kevin Harvick

Harvick has an admirable tendency. When he has a bad race, he typically comes back with a vengeance in the following race. After finishing 38th at Bristol, look for Harvick to go for his third win of 2015. Harvick has three career wins at RIR—his last coming in this race in 2013—along with eight top-five and 17 top-10 finishes.

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin grew up in nearby Chesterfield, Virginia, and RIR has long been considered his home track. He has a decent record there with two wins, seven top-five and nine top-10 finishes. But he’s really struggled in his last four starts there, finishing 18th, 21st, 22nd and 21st.

There’s also the question about whether his neck and back sprain—which caused him to leave his car early at Bristol—will be up for all the beating and banging at RIR. Still, if Hamlin is on top of his game, he has one of the best chances of any driver to win on Saturday night.

Joey Logano

The defending winner of this race, Logano is off to a great start in 2015, including a triumph in the season-opening Daytona 500. Even with last year’s win, Logano has never been great overall at RIR. In 12 starts there, he has the aforementioned win and just three top-five and four top-10 finishes.

Logano has been itching for win No. 2 of 2015, and this could be an excellent venue to not only achieve that, but also extend his winning streak there to two.

Kurt Busch

Much like my faith in Danica Patrick, I’m going to keep riding Kurt Busch to win—and win soon. Richmond would be a perfect place for him to do it, although he’s had mixed success there in his career. He has one win, but just five top-five and 10 top-10 finishes in 28 career starts.

He’s long overdue to win at RIR. He’s had decent runs in three of his last four starts there: ninth, second and seventh (although he was 23rd in last year’s spring race there).

Brad Keselowski

Having won last summer’s pre-Chase finale there, can Bad Brad make it two consecutive wins at Richmond? Why yes, yes he can. Last year’s win was Keselowski’s first career Sprint Cup win at Richmond, and only his second-ever top-five finish there in 11 starts.

Will history repeat itself on Saturday night? Or will his teammate, Logano, make it back-to-back spring races at Richmond? We’ll soon find out.

Dark-Horse Pick

Richard Drew/Associated Press

I may be the only person in the world—no, make that the galaxy—who has a hunch about this.

But I honestly think Danica Patrick can win on Saturday night at Richmond. Sure, it won't be easy, and she'll have to be at the right place at the right time on the final lap (in front, of course).

While others have said either a superspeedway like Daytona or Talladega, or perhaps a 1½-mile track, I've been saying since last year that when Patrick earns her first career Sprint Cup win, it's going to be on a short track.

And Richmond would be the perfect venue for her to do so.

Granted, her history to date at RIR hasn’t been the greatest; her best finish was 16th last summer.

But based upon what she’s already done at Martinsville (seventh) and Bristol (ninth), I think Patrick could really surprise quite a few people at Richmond.

You can see it in her eyes and the way she drives lately: She’s showing a lot more confidence and posting some good finishes.

Plus, she set a NASCAR record for most top-10 career finishes by a female Cup driver at Bristol (6). She’d sure love to make that seven, as well as become the first female driver to ever win a Cup race.

And the Winner Is: Kurt Busch

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

While I said I would really love to see Danica Patrick win on Saturday night, she’s going to have to get past her Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch first.

And while Patrick and Harvick are worthy candidates to reach Victory Lane, it’s Busch whom I’m picking to win this race.

He lost a chance to win at Fontana by a late debris caution, and he’s been looking to avenge that ever since.

To his credit, Busch has been quiet and has attempted to fly under the radar ever since he was reinstated from his three-race suspension at the beginning of the season.

Busch is letting his driving do the talking for him, and he’s done very well. Had it not been for the late wreck at Bristol on Sunday, he likely could have challenged Matt Kenseth for the win at the end.

Also, let’s not forget that Busch’s last Sprint Cup win came on another short track: last spring at Martinsville.

It’s Busch’s time to finally get another win—and Richmond will be the place.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.