Johnson vs. Horiguchi: A Complete Guide to UFC 186
There's no nice way to say this, so I'm going to just come out with it: UFC 186 is not the UFC's best pay-per-view offering. Even when compared to some of the UFC's more injury-riddled recent events, Saturday's card falls under what I'd call the "subpar" heading.
But the non-existent hype for this event received something of a kick-start Tuesday night when the UFC announced that the injunction granted to Bellator a few weeks ago that would keep Quinton "Rampage" Jackson from competing on the card had been overturned, to the shock of everyone. Well, everyone who did not read our story on the lawsuit in the first place, anyway.
So Jackson is back on the card, and former hockey thug/local draw Steve Bosse is relegated back to the sidelines. It's the first true good news the UFC has received around this injury-riddled fight card, and to be frank, the company needed a little bit of good news when it comes to the Canadian market.
Now that we have an idea of what the finalized card will look like (with just a few days to spare, even!), let's go through each matchup with a fine-tooth comb.
Aisling Daly vs. Randa Markos
1 of 12Division: Women's Strawweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Training out of the same Straight Blast Gym as fellow Irish sensation Conor McGregor, Daly brings a wealth of submission experience with her brown belt in jiu-jitsu. She flew under the radar during her season of The Ultimate Fighter, but fight aficionados recognize her as a deft submission expert who poses a threat to anyone she faces.
Markos, a fellow TUF castmate, is a powerful fighter, but Daly's submission game and experience should be too much for Markos to handle
Prediction: Daly
Jessica Rakoczy vs. Valerie Letourneau
2 of 12Division: Women's Strawweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass
Jessica Rakoczy is a former TUF finalist. I bet that's a nugget you forgot about, didn't you? Everyone fawned over Julianna Pena after her knee was shredded to bits, but the truth is that Rakoczy—who faced Pena in that final (what feels like) so many years ago (Nov. 2013)—has been out even longer.
Letourneau makes her second trip into the Octagon here; the first was a win over Elizabeth Phillips way back at UFC 174 in June 2014. With both women no doubt experiencing some form of Octagon rust, I don't expect this to be the best fight on the card.
Prediction: Rakoczy
Chris Clements vs. Nordine Taleb
3 of 12Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass
Nordine Taleb, a (rare) former two-time TUF competitor, returns to the cage looking for his third win in a row. He was initially scheduled to face Claudio Silva, but a broken foot forced Silva out. In steps Clements, a man with just four professional fights on his ledger over the past three years.
Taleb is favored here, and for good reason. He has better all-around skills than Clements does, and he has kept busy, while Clements spent a lot of time injured or on the sidelines.
Prediction: Taleb
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Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. David Michaud
4 of 12Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Oliver Aubin-Mercier is the best prospect on the entire UFC 186 card. His 5-1 record shows that he has relatively little experience, but those six fights (and his time on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations) showed us that he has plenty of tools and a knack for the fight game. And The Quebec Kid has one of the best teams and coaches in the sport with Tristar and Firas Zahabi. Aubin-Mercier could end up being something special as long as his development is handled the right way.
Michaud, keeper of great hair, is a great next test for Aubin-Mercier. Michaud has two wins in the UFC, and though Aubin-Mercier is a distinct favorite heading into the bout, Michaud has shown enough for us to know that he's a dangerous out for anyone, especially a prospect being handled with a certain amount of care.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier
Chad Laprisevs. Bryan Barberena
5 of 12Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Laprise won The Ultimate Fighter: Canada vs. Australia. Don't worry if you weren't aware of the existence of such a show; trust me when I tell you that it happened, and that Laprise won it. He is undefeated in his professional career, but Barberena is easily his toughest test so far. Barberena beat the ultra-tough and durable Joe Ellenberger his last time out, and he'll be looking to put a stop to the Laprise hype train, such that it is.
Most people favor Laprise to win this bout, but I like Barberena in the upset. He has true finishing power, and he'll put it to good use against Laprise.
Prediction: Barberena
Alexis Davis vs. Sarah Kaufman
6 of 12
Division: Women's bantamweight
Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
This is the third meeting between Davis and Kaufman; the first came back on the preliminary card of the March 3, 2012 card that rocketed Ronda Rousey to stardom when she submitted Miesha Tate.
Kaufman won that bout, and she should win this one too. She is a far better boxer than Davis, and the only true strength Davis possesses (her jiu-jitsu) can be completely negated by Kaufman's insufferable wrestling technique.
Prediction: Kaufman
Patrick Cote vs. Joe Riggs
7 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Do not adjust your television sets! Yes, it is 2015! Yes, Patrick Cote and Joe Riggs are fighting each other!
Riggs made his MMA debut in 2001; Cote made his in 2002. Together, both men have competed for approximately 14,000 years. And still, here they are, fighting each other on a card for the biggest MMA promotion on the planet. That's kind of amazing when you really stop to think about it.
To be frank, Riggs is long past his expiration date, and there is nothing to suggest he'll have much to offer Cote, who seemed to be on something of a career rebound before losing to Stephen Thompson in his last fight.
Prediction: Cote
Yves Jabouinvs. Thomas Almeida
8 of 12
Division: Bantamweight
Where to watch: PPV
Jabouin has been with Zuffa since 2009, when he competed under the WEC banner. A few years ago, his trainer Firas Zahabi told me that Jabouin had all the tools to be a bantamweight champion. He never ascended to those heights and has instead served as something of a gatekeeper to the bantamweight elite.
To my eye, that's exactly what's happening here. Almeida is an undefeated prospect, and this is a way of boosting his popularity by having him face a beatable and yet known commodity.
Prediction: Almeida
John Makdessi vs. Shane Campbell
9 of 12
Division: Catchweight (160 pounds)
Where to watch: PPV
Makdessi, he of violent spinning fame, was originally scheduled to face Abel Trujillo in a fight that would assuredly figure out whom the most violent lightweight on the planet truly was. Sadly, Trujillo was injured, and Makdessi is left facing promotional newcomer Shane Campbell.
All is not lost, however; Campbell is the guy who unleashed the Street Fighter-style hadoken during his last World Series of Fighting bout. He won't beat Makdessi, but he will make it entertaining.
Prediction: Makdessi
Michael Bisping vs. C.B. Dollaway
10 of 12
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: PPV
Here is the story of Bisping's career: He beats everyone not ranked in the top five and loses to everyone in it.
Part of that is because Bisping is just too good for fighters who aren't near the top of his division. But part of it is that he's not good enough to beat the guys at the top. He's one of the UFC's most tenured veterans, and yet he hasn't received a title shot. There's a reason for that. And while I'm sure the UFC would love the opportunity to book Bisping against Chris Weidman, he has to do his part and earn it.
Luckily, this is another winnable fight for him. Dollaway is a serviceable fighter, to be sure, but he isn't on Bisping's level. At least historically so, anyway. This should be a win for The Count, but he'll have to make it count against someone ranked higher than Dollaway if he wants to realize his dream of a title shot.
Prediction: Bisping
Quinton Jackson vs. Fabio Maldonado
11 of 12
Division: Catchweight (215 pounds)
Where to watch: PPV
Jackson shockingly found himself back on this fight card on Tuesday, when a judge overturned the injunction recently granted to Bellator that would have kept Rampage on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. With just a few days to spare, it was nigh impossible for the weighty Jackson to make 205 pounds, and so a catchweight fight with Fabio Maldonado was created.
Normally, I'd feel bad for Maldonado. He went from fighting Jackson to fighting Steve Bosse on short notice, only to find himself back in against Jackson on even shorter notice. But the truth is that whether it's Bosse or Jackson in there, Maldonado's approach wasn't going to change. He's going to war, and the only difference between Jackson and Bosse is which side of the win/loss column the Brazilian will find himself on.
Prediction: Jackson
Demetrious Johnson vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
12 of 12
Division: Flyweight (championship)
Where to watch: PPV
The UFC's attempts to paint Johnson as (maybe) the best fighter in the world are not entirely in vain. The truth is that, despite Johnson's inability to connect with the UFC's fanbase, he actually is one of the best fighters in the world. In terms of complete skill and the ability to successfully chain those skills together, few can approach Johnson. For me, he's easily the second-best overall fighter in the world behind Jon Jones.
The problem with that, of course, is that Johnson has no interesting opponents right now. He has dispatched the best of his division, often with ease. He's closer to cleaning out his division than Jones is. And if anyone on the planet is picking Horiguchi to win in an upset, I suspect he is doing it so that he can point out to everyone how smart he is, when in reality he is taking a very long shot in a very dark room.
Johnson is several classes above Horiguchi, no matter what the UFC's promotional efforts tell you. This is not a close fight, and I would be surprised if it goes longer than two rounds.
Prediction: Johnson
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