NBA Draft Notebook: Breaking Down the Point Guard Tiers of the 2015 Class
The 2015 NBA draft wasn't originally supposed to offer a particularly strong or deep field of point guards. But with a new one having broken out practically every month, teams looking for ball-handlers this June could actually have some excellent options to choose from—regardless of where they're picking.
There should be about 10 point guards worthy of first-round consideration. Even franchises picking early in Round 2 may have a real shot at landing a keeper.
General managers selecting at the top of the draft could also have the opportunity to acquire a new floor general for the future.
Emmanuel Mudiay, who played in China instead of college, entered the year as the sole projected prize among those who play his position. Now, there are two.
It only took a few weeks for Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell to turn heads. And his emergence has likely fueled some good debate within scouting departments about who the top guard really is.
| D'Angelo Russell, Freshman | Top Five |
| Emmanuel Mudiay, 1996 | Top Five |
Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", 1996
Not much has changed with regard to Mudiay's NBA projection since his senior year in high school. His upside remains powered by 6'5" size, a 200-pound frame and top-notch athleticism for a point guard.
Those attributes allowed him to compete and ultimately take it to opposing pros and grown men overseas. Though the defense in China is suspect (10 players in the CBA average at least 30 points per game), Mudiay still had to earn his 18.0 points, 5.9 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game.
We saw him execute in all the areas that led to his preseason top-five projection. Mudiay has a strong feel out of pick-and-rolls, where he can hit the roll or pop man or score off the dribble. And with terrific physical tools and burst, he's tough to stop in the lane and transition.
Mudiay couldn't hide his weaknesses abroad, though. He shot 13-of-38 from three and 57.4 percent from the free-throw line while averaging 3.3 turnovers. Shooting and decision-making represent the two biggest holes in his game.
However, at 19 years old, these are wrinkles he'll have the chance to iron out over time. If he does, odds are that he'll be the top point guard from the 2015 class.
D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", Freshman
You can argue that Russell is more of a 2-guard than a point, but in today's NBA, where scoring ball-handlers are in, it could be wise to exploit the mismatch he creates for opposing backcourts.
At 6'5", he's crafty off the dribble, where he has spectacular vision and passing instincts as well as the ability to stop and pop from anywhere (44 percent on pull-ups, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony).
Russell put up some pretty wild numbers in his first season on the job. He was the only freshman in the last 18 years to average at least 19 points and five assists, according to Sports-Reference.com. On top of that, he hit 95 threes at a 41.1 percent clip.
His skill level is off the charts for a kid who just turned 19 years old.
If there is a reason to be skeptical, it's due to his lack of explosiveness, both off the bounce and around the rim. He isn't exactly a blow-by, breakdown point guard. And he doesn't elevate very high as a shooter or finisher.
Still, between his size, versatile skill set and amazingly polished offensive repertoire, there isn't much risk attached to him. The idea that you can also slide him off the ball only enhances his appeal.
| Current Projected Pick | Starting Point Guard Under Contract for 2015-16 | Secondary Ball-Handler Under Contract for 2015-16 | |
| Timberwolves | 1 | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine |
| Knicks | 2 | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway |
| 76ers | 3 | Isaiah Canaan | Tony Wroten Jr. |
| Lakers | 5 | Jordan Clarkson | N/A |
| Kings | 6 | Darren Collison | Ray McCallum |
| Projection | |||
| Jerian Grant | Late lottery to late first round | ||
| Cameron Payne | Late lottery to late first round | ||
| Kris Dunn | Late lottery to late first round |
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 6'5", Senior
Normally, I'd be somewhat hesitant to reach on a breakout senior. But Jerian Grant would have likely broken out as a junior if he wasn't ineligible for the final 20 games. Grant was averaging 19 points and 6.2 assists before missing the rest of the season for academic matters.
He returned as a senior without having skipped a beat. Grant averaged 16.5 points and 6.7 assists (No. 7 in the country) to go with a 59.2 percent true shooting percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com.
A 6.22 pure point rating (No. 8 in the country, according to RealGM) also highlights just how efficiently he created for others (only 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes).
Grant has terrific vision and the 6'5" size to see over the defense as a passer. And though he isn't the most prolific scorer, he's capable from every spot on the floor (made 50 threes, shot 73.1 percent at rim and 40.3 percent on two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com), both as a shot creator and shot maker.
Once all the flashy names are off the board, I'd actually consider Grant one of the safest bets in the field. He'll be 23 years old by the start of next season, so there are questions concerning his upside. But Grant has shown enough to suggest he can compete for a starting gig if he lands in the right spot.
Cameron Payne, Murray State, 6'2", Sophomore
Payne ultimately passed every test he had control of in 2014-15. The only knock on Payne's resume is strength of schedule. But at some point this year, it became pretty clear that his production was a result of exceptional skill and instincts—not just poor competition.
Payne joined a short list of players since 1997—including Stephen Curry, Jay Williams, Jameer Nelson and Jason Terry—to average at least 20 points, five assists, two steals and two made threes per game in a season, according to Sports-Reference.com.
His 40 percent assist percentage ranked No. 6 in the country, an impressive feat when you consider how much he was relied on to score. Payne is sharp and deadly off the dribble, where he's a threat to pull up off two feet or loft a floater off one.
Payne also oozes with confidence. And it's translated to a number of clutch crunch-time plays, a few of which came in the conference tournament.
There really isn't much not to like. It would have just been a little more comforting if we got to see him torch opposing defenses that actually had some credibility.
Kris Dunn, Providence, 6'3", Sophomore
With a strong 205-pound frame, a 6'8" wingspan and electric athleticism, Dunn always looked the part of an NBA point guard. This year, he played it. Dunn ranked No. 1 in the country in assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, after lasting just four games total in 2013-14 (shoulder surgery).
Dunn's quickness and shiftiness off the dribble make him tough to stay in front of. And they led to a lot of five-on-fours, which Dunn was able to capitalize on as a passer.
As a scorer, he's crafty in the lane, where he consistently made shots off spins and various runners. And though not the sharpest shooter from outside, he hit 27 threes (35.1 percent) and looked capable of separating into pull-ups and step-backs.
Dunn also racked up 90 steals in 33 games this past season.
On the downside, nobody in the country turned the ball over more, a result of questionable decision-making and a 28 percent usage rate, per Sports-Reference.com. His strengths and weaknesses are similar to Mudiay's—only Dunn is two inches shorter and two years older.
| Projected Pick | Starting Point Guard Under Contract in 2015-16 | Secondary Ball-Handler Under Contract in 2015-16 | |
| Heat | 10 | Mario Chalmers | Shabazz Napier |
| Pacers | 11 | George Hill | N/A |
| Suns | 13 | N/A | Archie Goodwin/Eric Bledsoe |
| Thunder | 14 | Russell Westbook | D.J. Augustin |
| Rockets | 18 | N/A | Pablo Prigioni/James Harden |
| Mavericks | 21 | N/A | Devin Harris |
| Bulls | 22 | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich (Player Option) |
| Cavaliers | 24 | Kyrie Irving | N/A |
| Projection | ||||
| Tyus Jones | Mid-first to late first round | |||
| Delon Wright | Mid-to-late first round to second round |
Tyus Jones, Duke, 6'1", Freshman
Jones' physical limitations hold his ceiling in check. A lack of explosiveness could cause him to struggle finishing around the basket. And there is a good chance he'll become a target on defense in the pick-and-roll game, where he's had trouble fighting through screens.
However, Jones' ball skills and feel for the position are excellent. He's a natural facilitator, and that's ultimately where his value will lie in the pros. He has terrific instincts as a table-setter, particularly in transition, where he picked up 44.7 percent of his assists, according to Hoop-Math.com.
I wouldn't peg Jones as a scorer in the NBA, but he's sharp enough to capitalize opportunistically, whether it's with the pull-up jumper, the three-ball or the floater.
"He’s going to get a lot better, but people have already seen him and know how he handles himself, especially in pressure situations and in the biggest games,” coach Mike Krzyzewski told Laura Keeley of The Charlotte Observer.
Delon Wright, Utah, 6'5", Senior
Wright's status hasn't changed much from one year to the next. It's not a bad thing, though he didn't make the improvements that a major draft-stock boost would have required.
Still, Wright's calling in the pros is as a backup ball-handler and defender. He averaged at least five assists in both seasons at Utah, while totaling 155 steals and a whopping 77 blocks between the two.
However, Wright made only 38 threes in 68 games. And very rarely do you see him stop and pop for a jumper off the dribble.
Chances are that he'll never be much of a scorer in the NBA. But his ability to force turnovers, defend multiple positions and find teammates off ball screens could hold solid value off the bench.
| Projected Pick | Starting Point Guard Under Contract in 2015-16 | Secondary Ball-Handler Under Contract in 2015-16 | |
| Mavericks | 21 | N/A | Devin Harris |
| Bulls | 22 | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich (Player Option) |
| Cavaliers | 24 | Kyrie Irving | N/A |
| Spurs | 26 | Tony Parker | Patrick Mills |
| Lakers | 27 | Jordan Clarkson | N/A |
| Terry Rozier, Louisville | Late first round to second round |
| George de Paula | Late first round to second round |
Terry Rozier, Louisville, 6'1", Sophomore
Rozier had a big year in terms of production, having averaged 17.1 points. But he also shot 41.1 percent on 14.5 field-goal attempts per game and registered an ugly 3-2 assist-to-turnover ratio—numbers that don't exactly reflect point guard instincts.
It doesn't help that he's also 6'1", which hurts his chances of playing 2-guard in the pros.
However, Rozier was never Louisville's primary decision-maker or facilitator. His job was to score. And there could be a chance that role helped hide Rozier's playmaking ability.
He's certainly quick and athletic enough to create scoring opportunities off the dribble. And we know he can put the ball in the hole. Rozier also happens to be a tough defender and active rebounder.
There is a chance he gets stuck between positions in the NBA, but if it turns out that Rozier isn't as bad of a passer as his numbers say he is, he could be a steal late in the first round or early in the second.
George de Paula, Brazil, 6'6", 1996
George de Paula immediately stands out thanks to some impressive physical tools, specifically his 6'6", 202-pound frame and monster 6'11 ¾" wingspan.
He was recently invited to play in April's Nike Hoop Summit, though de Paula didn't make much of an impact in the game (three points) or generate much buzz during practice.
His size, length, athleticism and shot-making ability drive some intriguing mismatch potential. But given his raw game and limited resume, he'll be a risk-reward option on draft night.
| Prospect | School | Size | Year |
| Olivier Hanlan | Boston College | 6'4" | Junior |
| Yogi Ferrell | Indiana | 6'0" | Junior |
| Tyrone Wallace | California | 6'6" | Junior |
| Andrew Harrison | Kentucky | 6'6" | Sophomore |
| Joseph Young | Oregon | 6'2" | Senior |
| Keifer Sykes | Green Bay | 6'0" | Senior |
| Ryan Boatright | Connecticut | 6'1" | Senior |
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