UFC Fight Night 65 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC is back after a weekend off with its return to Australia on Saturday. UFC Fight Night 65, which is headlined by Mark Hunt and Stipe Miocic, is heavy on talent from the area, as well as some other good fighters from around the world.
The main card is strong, but the undercard should be entertaining. A number of athletes are looking to push their stock up at this event.
The last event, UFC 186, was a good night for undercard picks. We look to continue that momentum here, as 2015 has been a so-so year for picks thus far.
With that, let's take a look at the prelims and make some predictions for this weekend.
2015 Riley's Record: 51-30
Last Event: UFC 186 (5-2)
Alp Ozkilic vs. Ben Nguyen
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UFC Fight Night 65 starts out with a pair of flyweights, as "The Turkish Delight" Alp Ozkilic welcomes newcomer Ben Nguyen to the Octagon.
Ozkilic is a wrestler who has been using his stand-up in recent bouts. He is strong and athletic, but he should return to wrestling, though his one-punch KO power is impressive.
He looks to reverse a two-fight skid in which he lost to John Lineker and Louis Smolka in fun performances. That reversed his UFC debut, where he earned a victory over Darren Uyenoyama.
As for Nguyen, he is a Tiger Muay Thai rep known for his knockout ability. He enters the UFC on a seven-fight winning streak, though he takes a big step up in competition here in the form of Ozkilic.
Nguyen is an intriguing newcomer, but the aggression, striking and wrestling of Ozkilic will be too much for him in his debut with the UFC.
Prediction: Ozkilic defeats Nguyen via TKO.
Vik Grujic vs. Brendan O'Reilly
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A pair of The Ultimate Fighter Nations teammates are set to meet up next at 170 pounds, as Brendan O'Reilly moves up from lightweight to take on Vik Grujic.
Grujic is a top-game ground fighter who thrives in dominant position on the mat. He utilizes good ground-and-pound, though he does have some solid offensive submissions as well.
He has sandwiched a win with two losses in the UFC. While he did knock Chris Indich out in his sophomore effort, Nordine Taleb and Chris Clements thoroughly dominated him.
As for O'Reilly, he has a similar game to Grujic in that he thrives when he's on top on the ground. He moves up to 170 for this bout, after his last bout was at lightweight.
He looks for his first UFC win in this bout, as he was unsuccessful in his UFC debut against Lipeng Zhang.
O'Reilly looked awful in his UFC debut, and that was at a lower weight class. That's why I have a hunch that Grujic will score a victory here.
Prediction: Grujic defeats O'Reilly via decision.
Alex Chambers vs. Kailin Curran
3 of 8The ladies will take to the cage next, as Australia's own Alex Chambers looks for her first UFC win against the scrappy Kailin Curran.
Chambers is a striker who makes up for her lack of size with speed. She has good kicks and knees, which complement her punching output when she's able to get off combinations.
She was a cast member of TUF 20, where she was eliminated in the first round. She made her official debut at the live finale but lost via armbar to Aisling Daly in the closing seconds of the first round.
As for Curran, she is a grinder who has good takedowns and top position. She sets up takedowns with strikes, clinches and gets fights to the floor, where she usually is able to hold opponents there and dominate.
Her UFC debut was a barnburner, as she and Paige VanZant put on an awesome performance. That said, VanZant finished her late in the third round, which means she will be looking for her first UFC win here.
This will be a close fight, as size and speed will be key factors. Given their resumes, Chambers will come out victorious.
Prediction: Chambers defeats Curran via decision.
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Dylan Andrews vs. Brad Scott
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An Australia vs. England fight is afoot next, as middleweights Dylan Andrews and Brad Scott throw down in a high-stakes bout with national pride on the line.
Andrews is a gamer known for his power striking and ground-and-pound ability. He is athletic and physically strong, which allows him to bully opponents, especially early on when he's fresh.
The TUF 17 veteran has had his ups and downs in the UFC. He started off his tenure with knockouts of Jimmy Quinlan and Papy Abedi but finds himself on a two-fight skid at the hands of Clint Hester and Sam Alvey.
As for Scott, the TUF Smashes veteran is more of a ground fighter who is known for his finishing ability. In fact, all nine of his wins have come by way of knockout or submission.
He has only been able to fight once per year since coming to the UFC, and that lack of activity is somewhat concerning. He sandwiched a UFC win over Michael Kuiper with losses to Robert Whittaker and Claudio Silva, which makes this a must-win fight for him.
Scott is definitely a gamer, but given home-field advantage and skill, this bout should belong to Andrews. Scott can surprise some, but Andrews ultimately is the better overall fighter.
Prediction: Andrews defeats Scott via decision.
Bec Rawlings vs. Lisa Ellis
5 of 8The second of two women's bouts on the card is up next, as bitter rivals Bec Rawlings and Lisa Ellis look to settle their beef in the cage.
Ellis is a longtime veteran of MMA who has helped pave the way for a new generation of fighters. She is a submission fighter who enjoys the ground, as 11 of her 15 wins have come by way of tapout.
Motherhood had kept Ellis away from competition for more than two years before she took to TUF 20, where she lost in the first round. In her official UFC debut, Felice Herrig scored an armbar on her midway through the fight.
As for Rawlings, she's a striker with good boxing skills and a chin of granite. She has spent a lot of time in the United States training and working to get better, so we will see what improvements she has made.
The former Invicta title challenger was eliminated in the first round of TUF 20 and finds herself in the loser's column in three of her last four. That includes her UFC debut, where she talked a lot of trash about opponent Heather Clark, who promptly beat her via unanimous decision.
Ellis is no doubt a pioneer in early women's MMA, but she has not looked the same since coming back from her hiatus. She hasn't had the killer instinct she had before, and Rawlings should be able to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Rawlings defeats Ellis via decision.
Dan Kelly vs. Sam Alvey
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The middleweights will clash next, as Australian Olympic judoka Dan Kelly looks to continue his success in the UFC against beloved underdog Sam Alvey.
Alvey, known for his smiling demeanor and infectious personality, is a power puncher first and foremost. He is good at most things but doesn't necessarily stand out in one area besides his one-punch KO ability.
He opened his UFC career on the wrong end of a decision courtesy of Tom Watson. However, he has righted the ship since then, earning brutal knockouts of Cezar Ferreira and Dylan Andrews.
As for Kelly, he is a judo specialist known for his heavy top position when the fight hits the mat. He has been showing off his striking a bit more recently, but his bread and butter remains his grappling.
The undefeated Aussie opened his UFC tenure with a stylish kimura over Luke Zachrich on home soil. He then came to the United States for his last fight, taking a decision over a heavy Patrick Walsh.
Kelly's run has been unlikely, which has been great for him. However, Alvey is a much better striker and has the hips to defend takedowns, which will be key in his win on enemy soil.
Prediction: Alvey defeats Kelly via TKO.
Kyle Noke vs. Jonavin Webb
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Moving forward, we head to the welterweight division, as Kyle Noke makes his return to the cage against late replacement Jonavin Webb.
Noke is a jack-of-all-trades who can win by knockout or submission. He is a good game planner and knows what weaknesses to exploit, which is why he is a valued fighter at Jackson-Winklejohn MMA.
The former Steve Irwin body guard started off his UFC career hot with three wins but is in dire straits here. He has lost three of his last four, including his most recent bout against the rival coach of TUF Nations, Patrick Cote.
As for Webb, he is a Renzo Gracie disciple known for his grappling ability. He is quick and explosive, which allows him to get deep on takedowns and drag things down to the mat.
He is undefeated as a pro, though his no-contest against Lyman Good was a record-saver, as he was losing that bout before the eye poke. However, since then, he has scored a submission over Elijah Harshbarger, which earned a call from Joe Silva.
Noke's inactivity makes it hard to have confidence in him, though he is a great all-around fighter. However, the athleticism and ground game of Webb are hard to ignore, and he should earn an upset in his debut.
Prediction: Webb defeats Noke via decision.
Hatsu Hioki vs. Dan Hooker
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Capping off the prelims are the featherweights, as New Zealand's Dan Hooker takes on a huge test in the form of Japanese fighter Hatsu Hioki.
Hioki is a grappler who is trying to improve his striking. He is so good on the ground, though, that it helps him get by in most matches he has. In fact, his submission prowess is quite feared, which is why fighters hate to engage with him on the mat.
A coveted prospect upon entry to the UFC, he has gone just 3-4 in his time with the company. He is 1-4 in his last five, as wrestlers have dominated the Japanese fighter, who has struggled against the elite takedown artists.
As for Hooker, he is also a grappler, though he is not as comfortable off his back as Hioki is. He prefers top position, where he rains down ground-and-pound and has great chokes.
After a brutal knockout of Ian Entwistle in his UFC debut, The Hangman ran into a speed bump in the form of Maximo Blanco in his sophomore effort. His striking will be key in this bout, as a mat war would be foolish against Hioki.
Hooker is tough as nails, but this is not a great matchup for him. Hioki's ground skills are hard to match, which is why he will finish Hooker.
Prediction: Hioki defeats Hooker via submission.
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