
Ranking New England Patriots' Biggest Needs to Address in the 2015 Draft
For a team that just won the Super Bowl 10 weeks ago, the New England Patriots have a fairly extensive number of holes on their roster. A tight salary cap forced four integral starters off the roster during free agency, which means that the Pats might need more immediate contributions from their draft class than they're accustomed to receiving.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, as none of New England's roster holes appears crippling enough to knock it out of serious contender status. Moreover, with five picks between Rounds 2-4, the Pats have plenty of cargo in the sweet spot of the draft to potentially remedy some of these concerns.
You've probably already seen Patriots draft needs articles elsewhere on the interweb, so let's spice things up in this space. Examining New England's six biggest positional needs, let's highlight early-, mid- and late-round prospects who could be nice on- and off-field fits for the Patriots.
6. Off-Line Linebacker
1 of 6Why a Need?
The Patriots could possess one of the league's deepest linebacking corps in Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and Jerod Mayo. None is over the age of 30, and after big 2014 jumps from Collins and Hightower, all have proven track records as effective three-down linebackers, a rare and valuable commodity in today's game.
And yet, Mayo has played a combined 12 games the past two seasons and is coming off a potentially debilitating torn patellar tendon injury. With a $10.3 million cap hit in 2015, there's a chance the Patriots could cut bait on Mayo if he doesn't agree to a restructure. Moreover, Hightower underwent shoulder surgery and might not be ready in time for the start of the year.
Thus, the depth is a little precarious at the position, especially after the offseason defection of Jonathan Casillas, who replaced Mayo in base packages last year. With Collins and Hightower both having their contracts expire after 2016, the Pats could also use a future-minded pick to provide insurance in the event that either leaves.
Prospects to Watch
Shaq Thompson, Washington: I've highlighted Thompson as a potential Patriot in a previous article, and if he falls into the late second or early third round, he would make sense as a moldable ball of athleticism that Belichick could use in sub-packages. Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson often played in the box as "dime linebackers" last season, so that's the type of immediate role where Thompson could contribute in 2015.
Jake Ryan, Michigan: The heart of the Wolverines defense the past four years, Ryan is a scheme-versatile downhill player who has experience both inside and outside. He would profile nicely in Casillas' old 4-3 "Sam" role. With good zone awareness and the range to play sideline-to-sideline, Ryan possesses the movement skills and intangibles to become a mid-round steal.
Ben Heeney, Kansas: Few players in this draft are as fearless as the ex-Jayhawk, an indefatigable ball magnet who has produced a 35 tackles for loss the past three years. At 6'0" and 230 pounds, Heeney is probably too undersized to ever become a three-down linebacker, but his relentless motor and speed (4.59 40-yard dash at the combine) would profile well as a core special teamer.
5. Running Back
2 of 6Why a Need?
Much like the linebacker spot, this isn't a position that will necessarily need immediate help. However, the Patriots don't have any Collins or Hightower type of difference-makers at this position but rather an adequate stopgap in LeGarrette Blount surrounding a bunch of young upside lottery tickets.
The good news is that the Pats are at least two-deep in terms of both early- and passing-down backs. Travaris Cadet and James White are shifty receiving options to replace Shane Vereen, while the memory of Jonas Gray's 201-yard performance in his only 2014 start lingers.
But White is New England's only back under contract beyond 2016, and Blount will be a free agent next spring. The Pats unearthed a nice coup four years ago when they made Vereen and Stevan Ridley Day 2 draft picks. Now that both are gone, it wouldn't be surprising to see them return to the backfield well.
Prospects to Watch
T.J. Yeldon, Alabama: Belichick's friendship with Nick Saban has led the Pats to the Alabama pipeline multiple times. Crimson Tide backs have had a checkered track record transitioning to the NFL in recent seasons, but Yeldon's size (6'1", 226 lbs) and decisiveness make for a good fit in the Patriots system. One issue, though, is ball security, as Yeldon fumbled 10 times in 576 collegiate carries. As Ridley knows, there's no quicker ticket into Belichick's doghouse.
David Johnson, Northern Iowa: One of the draft's biggest backs at 6'1" and 224 pounds, Johnson's stock rose after a stellar combine, highlighted by a 4.50 40 time and 6.82-second three-cone drill. Those are surprising speed and agility numbers for someone of Johnson's size, and coupled with his soft hands, there's three-down upside here. Johnson does have questionable vision, though, so more directed power-based runs rather than improvisational zone calls might be his best systematic fit.
Zach Zenner, South Dakota State: One of the position's deepest sleepers, Zenner received some pub from Football Outsiders' Matt Waldman, who described him as "5'11", 223 pounds of explosion." Ironically, one of Zenner's most polished skills is his pass protection, an area where most top FBS backs struggle. He has stellar athleticism, and after he impressed in a game against Nebraska last season, expect to hear his name called on Day 3.
4. Wide Receiver
3 of 6Why a Need?
The Patriots wide receiving corps isn't particularly impressive on paper, particularly after the top two of Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell. In fairness, New England's option-oriented system emphasizes crisp route running and short-area agility over raw physical tools. It's part of the reason why physical specimens like Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson failed in Foxborough, while unimposing figures like Edelman and Deion Branch found success.
Nonetheless, on a purely statistical level, the Pats wide receivers were subpar in 2014. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, an opponent-adjusted measure of success rate, LaFell and Edelman finished 33rd and 42nd, respectively, among qualified receivers. This wasn't a huge problem last year, when a healthy season from Rob Gronkowski gave the Pats a deadlier No. 1 target than most teams possess, but given Gronk's spotty injury history, New England would do well to add a potential layer of insurance to the receiving corps.
Of course, the Patriots' byzantine system limits the pool of collegiate receivers who would appear to represent possible fits. While New England has gone outside the box before with prospects like Aaron Dobson, a more well-refined player who ran a more complete route tree in college might be a better fit this year, particularly with slot receiver Danny Amendola on a year-to-year contract with the team.
Prospects to Watch
Nelson Agholor, USC: The wide receiver class is deep, so Agholor might end up as the eighth or ninth receiver off the board. And yet, it's no surprise that Bleacher Report's Matt Miller reported one scout as saying, "I just hope he doesn't go to the Patriots. He'd be so great there." The positional need may not warrant a first-round investment, but if Agholor is still sitting around at No. 32, his polished route running, toughness in traffic and run-after-the-catch ability would dovetail perfectly with New England's system.
Stefon Diggs, Maryland: Bill Belichick was the only NFL head coach present at Maryland's pro day earlier this month, so every Terrapin in this draft should be on alert. That especially applies to Diggs, whose explosiveness out of cuts and natural vision made him a Percy Harvin-esque Swiss Army knife type of weapon at Annapolis. The 6'0", 195-pounder does have some toughness questions, though, as he might need to put on more weight to bear the punishment he'll take as an NFL slot receiver.
Austin Hill, Arizona: Hill is a prime buy-low candidate, as an ACL injury that wiped out his 2013 campaign also wreaked havoc on his 2014 season. Though the injury red flag is there, Hill was a highly productive receiver in 2012, posting 1,364 yards while demonstrating the versatility to play outside or inside and threaten all areas of the field. He is a big physical presence (6'3", 212 lbs) whose lateral agility figures to improve two years removed from knee surgery, which could make him a Day 3 bargain.
3. Defensive Tackle
4 of 6
Why a Need?
Vince Wilfork's departure is probably more significant from a locker-room leadership standpoint than in terms of his actual on-field contributions. Even with Wilfork around, the Patriots ranked last in short-yardage run defense success rate (3rd- or 4th-and-2 or less) and ranked 22nd in adjusted line yards on carries between the tackles, per Football Outsiders.
Wilfork is still a playable run defender, but regardless of whether or not New England retained its longtime defensive captain, this was always going to be a problem it needed to address in the draft. A full season from nose tackle Sealver Siliga would likely provide an adequate remedy, but the 24-year-old has never played more than seven games in a year. Alan Branch did start 44 games from 2011 to 2013, but at this stage of his career, he looks like more of a stopgap.
At his best, Wilfork was a three-down block-absorber, not just simply a run defender. Every defensive tackle in this year's class not named Leonard Williams is worse than a 50-50 bet to turn into that kind of impact defender, but a few options have displayed promising glimpses of all-around potential.
Prospects to Watch
Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma: Most mocks have matched the Patriots with Florida State's Eddie Goldman, but this scribe thinks Phillips holds greater upside. Like Goldman, Phillips' run defense tape is impressive, as he two-gaps consistently, anchors effectively and rarely loses leverage due to tireless hand usage. However, he also has some budding pass-rush moves that could make him a true three-down player, unlike Goldman. Injury and conditioning issues loom over his stock, but Phillips would be a prime target if the Patriots trade down into the early second round.
Grady Jarrett, Clemson: Jarrett has been one of my favorite prospects I've reviewed during the predraft process, as his film illustrates a powerfully compact tackle who plays to the whistle every snap. He is a bit undersized at 6'1" and 304 pounds, but the flip side is that he possesses terrific quickness, often beating opposing interior linemen off the snap. Coupled with an apparent high football IQ, Jarrett looks like a quintessential Patriot who could be available sometime in Round 3.
David Parry, Stanford: Parry (6'1", 308 lbs) looks like Jarrett, except without the explosive first step. Still, with active hands and an understanding of play-side leverage, the Stanford product plays bigger than his size, having anchored a physical Cardinal defense. Parry will be at a physical disadvantage against most NFL linemen, but the former walk-on plays with a nastiness and effort that could allow him to overcome the odds.
2. Cornerback
5 of 6
Why a Need?
If you haven't been under a rock the past month, you'll know that the header here is mostly rhetorical. No position suffered a bigger offseason downgrade, as the loss of top cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner will likely force a systematic change in New England's coverage approach.
Based on the Patriots' free-agent signings, it appears that they'll look for scheme-versatile players with decent size and the ability to play outside or inside. The likes of Bradley Fletcher and Robert McClain may not be long-term solutions, but they at least offer a hint at the type of prospect the Pats might be searching for. At the very least, the Patriots might favor corners with the intelligence to play man or zone, given that they'll likely toggle between both as they attempt to establish a new coverage identity.
For what it's worth, the corners who might be part of New England's long-term plans feature a weird conglomeration of skills that won't all fit into the same system. Malcolm Butler and Alfonzo Dennard are both thickly built corners with the strength and nastiness to play press, while Kyle Arrington and Logan Ryan are leaner smoother corners who are best in off coverage. Thus, it's anyone's guess as to what the Patriots really are looking for at the position.
Prospects to Watch
Byron Jones, UConn: Jones is getting a bit of an unfair rap as a combine wonder. While his historic numbers boosted his stock, Jones was always a nice sleeper due to his size (6'1", 199 lbs), smooth movements and intelligence as a scheme-versatile prospect. The sleeper label is long gone by now, but if Jones is still sitting around at No. 32, the Patriots might want to take the plunge on the local prospect.
Troy Hill, Oregon: Hill's teammate Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was the more touted prospect before an ACL injury, but as Pro Football Focus has elucidated, Hill actually charted out as the far superior player last season. Hill is a little undersized at 5'10" and 182 pounds, which had him playing exclusively off coverage at Eugene. Still, few players I've seen on film demonstrated better toughness, hip agility and ball skills. If the Patriots are comfortable with some anger management issues he had in college, Hill would be a nice mid-round flier.
Quandre Diggs, Texas: Another small corner at 5'9" and 196 pounds, Diggs would be a prime prospect if the Patriots are moving to a more zone-oriented system. The ex-Longhorn possesses as much awareness of assignment responsibility as any corner, so while he'll never be a man-coverage perimeter player, he's a Day 3 asset who could accelerate the movement back to a zone coverage system if the Patriots wish.
1. Guard
6 of 6
Why a Need?
This area might not have suffered the same drop-off as the cornerback position, but the Patriots could at least line up a reasonable cornerback group if they had a game tomorrow. The same doesn't hold true at guard; Dan Connolly remains a free agent, which leaves converted center Ryan Wendell and raw prospects Josh Kline and Jordan Devey as potential starting options at the moment.
ESPN.com's Mike Reiss reported that New England is actually cross-training second-year tackle Cameron Fleming at guard, a move that reeks of last year's failed experiment with swing tackle Marcus Cannon. Regardless of whether or not Fleming sticks, though, that might signal a philosophical shift in the type of guards the Patriots are looking for.
Under Dante Scarnecchia, the Pats sought out lighter, more agile guards like Connolly (6'3", 310 lbs) and Wendell (6'2", 300 lbs) rather than behemoths like Fleming (6'6", 325 lbs) and Cannon (6'5", 335 lbs). Coupled with the fact that New England's zone-blocking seemed to decrease last season, this could indicate Dave DeGuglielmo's preference for bigger maulers for a power gap-blocking run game.
Prospects to Watch
Laken Tomlinson, Duke: There's not a real consensus for the draft's top guard, but Tomlinson has been my favorite to watch. With the intelligence to recognize stunts, power to anchor and long arms to gain leverage, he has measurables (6'3", 323 lbs) that DeGuglielmo would seemingly prefer. Tomlinson is a prime target if the Pats trade down into the middle of the second round, but they could also stand pat and take him 32nd, just as they did with Logan Mankins back in 2005.
Donovan Smith, Penn State: A left tackle at Happy Valley, the 6'6", 338-pound Smith will almost certainly kick inside at the NFL level due to inferior foot speed and athleticism. However, his consistently low pad level and impressive lower-body strength suggest a potentially successful guard. Smith was also recruited by Bill O'Brien, giving him a natural connection to the Patriots.
Josue Matias, Florida State: Matias' fellow Seminole guard Tre' Jackson will likely go higher in the draft, but Matias is actually far more polished in pass protection, an area that was a particular weakness for New England last season. Matias (6'5", 309 lbs) is a bit on the lighter side and put up some head-shaking combine numbers, though, so his selection might indicate a desire to retain Scarnecchia's philosophy.
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