NBA Draft 2015: Complete 1st-Round Mock Draft with Lottery Odds Set
Vacations have been planned and coins have been flipped, which can only mean one thing: The 2015 NBA draft process has begun in earnest.
While 16 of the league's teams battle for a chance at the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the remaining 14 are sitting at home, slowly plotting their future. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are preparing their latest PowerPoint presentations to prospective free agents, while the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns are looking in the mirror and wondering what went wrong.
Each front office is doing its due diligence on potential draftees. With the deadline for underclassmen declaring for the draft coming on Sunday, we'll soon have a full list of those players who will be available.
Most of the names we've expected—and even some we didn't—have already made their intentions known. Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, a phalanx of Kentucky players and Stanley Johnson are just a few of the dozens tasked with proving themselves over the next few months.
Assuming the remaining stragglers opt in, let's take a look at how the entire first round will play out, paying special attention to the top five.
Mock Draft
| Pick | Team | Player |
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 23 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 24 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
Top Five Outlook
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
The Timberwolves would like for you to think Nikola Pekovic is part of their future. Perhaps Flip Saunders even believes it when he says it.
But all it takes is basic human logic to see Pekovic should—I repeat, should—be a major trade piece this summer. He's 29 years old; nearly a decade separates him from Andrew Wiggins. He missed 51 games this season and has never topped 65 appearances his entire career. The time to trade him is now, before his breakout 2013-14 campaign is too far in the distance.
Landing the No. 1 pick and Towns would make that process a whole lot easier. Towns, like Wiggins before him, has all the tools to be a foundational franchise piece once he figures out how to play basketball. He displayed flashes here and there at Kentucky, especially during his 41-point outburst (combined) during the Final Four and Elite Eight.
Towns is also talented enough he could move over to the 4 in lineups with Gorgui Dieng. Minnesota is one of a few teams where the Towns vs. Okafor debate is a no-brainer.
2. New York Knicks: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
I feel like the Knicks would secretly be A-OK with landing at No. 2. This feels like a situation where they'd love to have the decision taken out of their hands. The need for a big on this roster is obvious, but winning the top overall pick means sending a clear signal to your fanbase about how you view the next few seasons.
Selecting Towns is the prudent long-term move. It's also the one that all but guarantees New York is back in the lottery next season. That helps no one because the Knicks don't even have their 2016 pick; it goes to Toronto as part of the Andrea Bargnani trade. (More accurately: Toronto will receive either Denver or New York's pick, whichever is worse. The Nuggets have pick-swap rights with the Knicks.)
Selecting Okafor is a win-now Bat-Signal. He's by far the most polished young player in this class, a nightly double-double waiting to happen. The Knicks know they can select Okafor and slot him in for something like 15 points and eight rebounds on a nightly basis. He also has a lower two-way ceiling than Towns, topping out as an average defender.
Grabbing the No. 2 spot takes the pressure away.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
Russell is more of a Brandon Roy-style 2-guard than point guard, but he'll fit in with Sam Hinkie's apparent directive to never, ever, ever draft anyone below 6'5". The Ohio State product is a plus rebounder and passer for a shooting guard, was a fluid 41 percent shooter from three-point range last season and is a good enough slasher to keep defenses honest.
You're not going to confuse him with Zach LaVine athletically, which is really his only knock. His finishing ability near the rim is going to need a ton of work, especially as he upgrades from Big Ten to big league athleticism inside. Still, there are few more analytically sound players in this class.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
There may be no more perfect fit on the board than the Lakers and Mudiay. The Lakers haven't had a competent point guard since Magic Johnson's retirement*. Mudiay seems determined to take the highest-profile track to stardom, choosing a professional career in China over a one-year stop at SMU with Larry Brown.
Being patient enough to actually develop Mudiay is where concern starts creeping in. Kobe Bryant will be entering the final year of his contract next season, perhaps the final year of his career. The possibility of playing with someone like Mudiay, who is wildly talented but raw in a number of areas, probably sounds like a nightmare.
Remember: The Lakers drafted Julius Randle in large part last season because he was the most NBA-ready prospect left on the board. If they want to go that route again, don't be surprised if Willie Cauley-Stein gets a long and hard look. He's 21, played with Randle at Kentucky and projects as an instant stopper on the defensive end.
(*I'm kidding, of course. Who could forget Derek Fisher?)
5. Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, SG/SF, Duke
Like most Magic picks the last few years, I like the player and hate the fit. Orlando already has three below-average shooters in Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon, three players who ostensibly make up the team's core. Tobias Harris, a free agent this summer, is a career 32.1 percent shooter from distance.
Winslow isn't a bad shooter, but he's a mediocre one and would be joining a roster that probably has enough manic energy. That said, passing on Winslow here feels like a mistake. He's a dynamic threat who is built for the modern game, to his credit and detriment. His dribble-drive game and three-point range are solid, and he almost entirely eschews the mid-range.
Combine that with a nonstop defensive motor and NBA body, and it speaks to the strength of this class that he'd be available at No. 5.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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