Should the Oakland Raiders Trade for Adrian Peterson?
Through 10 games of the 2014 season, the Oakland Raiders were averaging 63 rushing yards per game—the fourth worst start for a rushing offense since the merger. Had the pace continued, the Raiders would have finished with the worst 16-game rushing season in NFL history.
It’s easy to see why the Raiders are one of the teams in play to trade for Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, as Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman first reported. The Raiders need difference-makers like Peterson on the field, so although they may be “on the outskirts” of the chase, it makes a lot of sense for them to hang around to see if the price drops or the other suitors get cold feet.
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Otherwise, the Raiders should avoid the kind of expensive quick fixes that have set the franchise back since their last Super Bowl appearance in 2002. The Raiders traded first-round picks for defensive tackle Richard Seymour and quarterback Carson Palmer in recent years and their limited success proved short-lived.
There’s a lot more that goes into deciding to trade for Peterson than his value on the field next season, which used to be all the organization was concerned about. Cost in trade, cost in cap dollars, future value, team dynamics and in this case, public relations, have to be considered before making such a bold trade.
Peterson is arguably the best running back to play the game since Barry Sanders, so he would give Oakland’s rushing offense an instant lift in 2015 that they need. Beyond that, Peterson would provide the Raiders with a fraction of the value a top draft choice would be able to provide.
The Need
The only incumbent running back in Oakland is Latavius Murray, who rushed for 112 yards in Week 11 and is directly responsible for helping the Raiders avoid one of the worst rushing seasons in NFL history. Despite this, the Raiders don’t seem fully sold on Murray since they’ve already expended resources trying to improve the position this offseason and pursued both DeMarco Murray and Peterson.
| Games 1-10 | 630 | Last | 3 |
| Season | 1240 | Last | 16 |
The fact that the Raiders waited so long last season to deploy their talented young running back was both a mistake and an indicator that Murray is far from a finished product. They obviously like his talent, but Murray’s sample sizes are small and his efficiency on a per carry basis skewed by one long run.
It has been and continues to be wise for the Raiders to be interested in other running backs. Whereas Roy Helu and Trent Richardson can carve out niche roles, trading for Peterson would shift the depth chart entirely.
Helu’s best work comes as a receiver in the passing game while Richardson excels in pass protection, if nothing else. A committee approach in Oakland seems to be the plan, but adding a running back like Peterson requires the team to make big changes to the offense.
| Latavius Murray | 82 | 424 | 5.2 | 17 | 143 | 2 |
| Roy Helu | 40 | 216 | 5.4 | 42 | 477 | 3 |
| Trent Richardson | 159 | 519 | 3.3 | 27 | 229 | 3 |
Right now, the Raiders don’t know with certainty what they are going to get from their trio of running backs. None have a proven track record and the Raiders will have to tinker with the offense if they don’t get what they want out of them.
With a player like Peterson, the hope is that the Raiders would have a player they can count on, which is valuable in the NFL. Peterson’s career numbers would seem to indicate he’s a good bet to continue to produce, although we know that age might have other ideas.
Risk and Reward
The last time Peterson was on the field was Week 1 of the 2014 season. At the time, Peterson was 29 and still considered one of the best in the league, but it’s very hard to know what the Raiders would be getting in 2015.
Since Peterson turned 30 in March, it’s probably smart to avoid taking a big risk by trading the premium draft pick that the Vikings are seeking. The decline of running back at age 30 can be either steady or sharp, so even if Peterson were in 2,000-yard form in 2015, he wouldn’t be for long. There’s a chance that Peterson, even after a year off, wouldn’t be the Peterson we remember.
| Eric Dickerson* | 106.9 | 4.6 | 50.8 | 3.7 |
| Barry Sanders* | 100.6 | 5.1 | 93.2 | 4.3 |
| Adrian Peterson | 98.0 | 5.0 | ? | ? |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 92.6 | 4.4 | 44.7 | 3.7 |
| Edgerrin James | 90.7 | 4.1 | 32.0 | 3.6 |
| Emmitt Smith* | 89.8 | 4.3 | 67.3 | 3.9 |
| Walter Payton* | 89.4 | 4.4 | 85.0 | 4.4 |
Age catches up to even the best players in the league. Peterson certainly seems like the type of player who can defy age to some extent, but no player is immune to the effects of age and the wear and tear of the NFL season. The best-case scenario would be for Peterson to age gracefully with the year off boosting his production next season.
Peterson is also set to make $13 million in 2015, $15 million in 2016 and $18 million in 2017, per spotrac.com. His pay is increasing at a time when his performance will almost certainly be decreasing. Peterson is also very expensive for a running back, and some of the base salary will likely have to be converted into guarantees to keep him happy.
The draft pick compensation and monetary compensation doubles the risk for Raiders. Although they have cap space to burn, any dollar they spend is still a dollar they could spend on a player in the future since teams can roll their unused cap space from year-to-year.
Trading a draft pick, who could become a future foundational player, would also be out of character for Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie. Oakland’s offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota when Peterson ran for 2,000 yards, so he’d have valuable insight into Peterson, but that’s unlikely to change McKenzie’s philosophy on top draft choices.
The Raiders no-doubt need a player of Peterson’s caliber running the ball, but to invest a top draft choice and $13 million in 2015 to get that production and little future value is just too much. Factor in the public relations aspect of signing Peterson and it only makes sense if the price is reasonable.
The only way the Raiders should be involved is if the price dips as the Vikings realize they need to get what they can for Peterson, which they have so far been reluctant to do. When the NFL draft arrives, they can either dig their heels in or get what they can for their aging star. If the price dips enough, only then should the Raiders consider bringing him in.
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