NBA Playoffs 2015: Full Title Odds and 1st-Round Predictions
For the first time in years, the NBA playoffs actually feel wide-open. The Eastern Conference is top-heavy, but a case can be made for the top three teams making it to the Finals. The Western Conference is a good mess with at least four teams capable of winning a title in most seasons.
It's the first time in recent memory without an overwhelming favorite in either conference. Miami during the Big Three era never had much competition in the East. San Antonio has owned the West the previous two years, but that hasn't been the case for most of 2014-15.
Yet the Spurs are still dangerous in the playoffs, and it would surprise no one if they were holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy once again. All basketball fans can ask for is great, compelling series that live up to the hype being put on this year's postseason.
Before the playoffs begin, here's how the oddsmakers see things right now, followed by predictions for all eight of the first-round matchups.
Odds
| Team | Odds |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 11-5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 11-5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 7-2 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 12-1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 12-1 |
| Houston Rockets | 16-1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 18-1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 28-1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 40-1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 40-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 50-1 |
| Washington Wizards | 75-1 |
| Boston Celtics | 150-1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 150-1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 200-1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 250-1 |
Predictions
| Eastern Conference: No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 Brooklyn Nets | Hawks win series, 4-1 |
| Eastern Conference: No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics | Cavaliers win series, 4-0 |
| Eastern Conference: No. 3 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks | Bulls win series, 4-1 |
| Eastern Conference: No. 4 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards | Raptors win series, 4-3 |
| Western Conference: No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans | Warriors win series, 4-1 |
| Western Conference: No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks | Rockets win series, 4-2 |
| Western Conference: No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio Spurs | Spurs win series, 4-3 |
| Western Conference: No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies | Grizzlies win series, 4-2 |
Key First-Round Storylines
Derrick Rose's Knee
There seems to be no doubt that Chicago will advance to the second round. As impressive as Milwaukee's turnaround was this season, going from 15 wins last year to 41, the Bucks are still not at the Bulls' level in terms of talent or performance.
Despite the Bulls being able to get away without being on their game to win this series, Derrick Rose's performance is going to be the story early in the Eastern Conference proceedings.
Because of the way things worked out, the matchup everyone wanted in the Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will potentially happen in the second round. That puts more pressure on Rose to find his game quicker to be ready for the Cavs.
It was obvious upon his return from knee surgery, which comprised the last five regular-season games, that Rose was still getting his feet under him. He only shot over 40 percent in one of those games, so there's a long way to go.
Shlomo Sprung of Sheridan Hoops did point out that Rose's impact was still being felt despite his low shooting percentage after returning:
"Rose has not played 30 minutes in any game since his return, but his on-court impact remains unquestionable. In the four games back with Rose on the floor, Chicago outscored its opponents by 14.2 points per 48 minutes, according to NBA.com.
Chicago is essentially an average team without Rose. Its record is 32-18 when Rose plays this season and a pedestrian 17-14 when he sits.
"
Those numbers do need context, as the Bulls played Orlando, Miami, Philadelphia and Brooklyn in that stretch, so it's not like they were doing this to Golden State, Cleveland and San Antonio.
Rose's best performance after returning came on April 11 against the 76ers, in which he did all of the things you would expect him to at peak level, via SportsCenter:
If the Bulls are getting that version of Rose in the playoffs, to put with Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler, they can defeat Cleveland in a seven-game series if the two meet.
If the version of Rose that shows up in the playoffs is the one who went 14-of-40 with 12 assists in the four games not against Philadelphia, the Bulls will struggle to win more than a couple of games against the Cavaliers.
Hopefully the former Rose is the one seen in April and May, but there's a lot of evidence suggesting the latter will be seen more often than not.
San Antonio's Rise Halted?
The Spurs went from being an injured, seemingly disinterested defending champion to one of the two Western Conference favorites basically overnight.
Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post is calling San Antonio the team to beat out West despite entering the playoffs as the No. 6 seed and Golden State's fantastic regular season:
"Do not be fooled by the pedestrian portions of the Spurs’ 2014-15 resume. The Spurs rattled off a 21-4 record in the final six weeks of the season, and 19 of those victories – 19! – came by double-digits. On Feb. 25, after a rocky stretch, the Spurs occupied the seventh spot in the Western Conference at 34-23. Even since, they have throttled the league. They are exactly where they need to be.
"
There are certainly times when it's easy to get bogged down by what teams didn't consistently do throughout the course of an 82-game regular season. Gregg Popovich has proved he doesn't care about the regular season with the way he gives players a night off seemingly starting on opening night.
It's hard to argue with the results of Popovich's strategy, as he has five championships and wins 50 games with more regularity than any coach ever has.
Heading into a series against the Los Angeles Clippers, who are entering the postseason on a high note with nine wins in their final 10 games, the Spurs are getting all the recognition. You can't blame analysts because it's impossible to dismiss this team as a No. 6 seed.
Plus, per NBA.com/Stats, San Antonio is one of the strongest defensive teams in the league:
That's an important statistic for the Spurs heading into a series against a Clippers team averaging nearly 107 points per game. These teams split four games in the regular season, with the Clippers winning the last two by scoring 224 total points.
Even though it's right to expect San Antonio to win, this isn't going to be a cake walk. The Clippers will test the Spurs' resolve and drag things out to seven games with home-court advantage. Anything can happen in a one-game scenario.
The Spurs get a slight edge overall because their extensive resume warrants it, but don't be shocked if the Clippers' late-season surge is something we should have paid closer attention to.
Anthony Davis' Breakout
It's a shame that voters have crafted the narrative of Stephen Curry vs. James Harden for NBA MVP, because Anthony Davis' work in 2014-15 was as impressive as anyone else's offering. It has nothing to do with team record, as Davis is clearly surrounded by the least talent compared to what Curry and Harden play with.
That's not meant to bury what Curry and Harden did this year, as they are fantastic players and worthy MVP candidates. But Davis was an absolute freak with 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor.
Per ESPN's Player Efficiency Rating, Davis' 30.89 mark was more than one full point ahead of anyone else and more than two full points ahead of Curry (28.06).
That stat isn't the be-all, end-all of player evaluation, but it does paint a strong picture to start figuring out why Davis rated that highly.
Certainly an argument can be made that Curry is more valuable by virtue of being a point guard and setting up the offense on every play, while Davis needs someone to get him the ball to do his thing.
There's no doubt that Curry and the Warriors will have the last laugh against Davis, as there's a better chance of getting David Chase to give a detailed explanation of The Sopranos' ending than the Pelicans winning this series.
Yet the fact that Davis will get to show his skills on a national playoff stage—as most of the country didn't bother to watch New Orleans in the regular season because it's not an overall sexy team—is huge for him and the NBA, as Andrew Sharp of Grantland wrote:
"The Pelicans may not even win a game against Golden State. I just can’t wait to see how Brow responds. Will he have a 40-20 game? Will he take over a fourth quarter? Will he get frozen out by Tyreke Evans in crunch time? Will any of it even matter with Curry and Klay Thompson torching the Pelicans backcourt?
Getting there was the first step. Over the next few years, there will probably be growing pains and coaching changes, big shots and brutal losses.
"
Davis is already one of the league's three best players at the age of 22. He carried a Pelicans roster with Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday as the other "core" pieces to the playoffs.
Imagine what Davis will be able to do if the Pelicans can pair him with an All-Star-caliber player. For now, expect the Warriors to dominate the series overall, with Davis and his eyebrow providing a brief snapshot of where the league is heading for the next decade.
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