NBA Draft 2015: Updated Mock Draft Predictions After Final Regular-Season Games

Because of the lottery system, we won't actually know the NBA draft order until the conference finals.  However, with a chaotic final night finalizing the order of regular-season records, we can use the current order to at least construct a tentative mock draft.

At this point, a clear top five of Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow and D'Angelo Russell appears to have separated itself from the rest of the potential lottery picks.  While that top five is unlikely to break down during the scouting process, the rest of the lottery is relatively wide-open, leaving room for prospects to work their way into the top 10 by June.

Those are the prospects we'll highlight in this space, given that most of the draft attention has centered around the aforementioned Big Five.  Taking an early mock of the first round, here are a few players to keep an eye on as potential risers during the draft process.

Pos.	Team	Selection
1	Minnesota Timberwolves	Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
2	New York Knicks	Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
4	Los Angeles Lakers	D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State
5	Orlando Magic	Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
6	Sacramento Kings	Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
7	Denver Nuggets	Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
8	Detroit Pistons	Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia
9	Charlotte Hornets	Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
10	Miami Heat	Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas
11	Utah Jazz	Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
12	Indiana Pacers	Stanley Johnson, G, Arizona
13	Phoenix Suns	Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
15	Atlanta Hawks (via Nets)	Jerian Grant, SG, Notre Dame
16	Boston Celtics	Myles Turner, C, Texas
17	Milwaukee Bucks	Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
18	Houston Rockets (via Pelicans)	Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
19	Washington Wizards	Frank Kaminsky, PF, Wisconsin
20	Toronto Raptors	Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
21	Dallas Mavericks	Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
22	Chicago Bulls	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, PF, Arizona
23	Portland Trail Blazers	Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
24	Cleveland Cavaliers	R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
25	Memphis Grizzlies	Buddy Hield, PF, Oklahoma
26	San Antonio Spurs	Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
27	Boston Celtics (via Clippers)	Caris LeVert, SF, Michigan
28	Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)	Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
29	Brooklyn Nets (via Hawks)	Delon Wright, PG, Utah
30	Golden State Warriors	Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse

Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

The NBA shooting guard pool has thinned out in recent seasons, and this year's draft class isn't particularly deep at the 2.  However, though the 6'8" Croatian Mario Hezonja might eventually move to small forward given his size, some see him as a player with the same upside as the top-five prospects:

Length and shooting are absolute premiums in today's spacing-based game, which dovetail nicely with Hezonja's greatest strengths.  Hezonja's range also opens up his slashing game; despite being just 20 years old, he has already demonstrated the strength to also play around the basket, making him a potentially deadly offensive threat.

Hezonja certainly doesn't lack for confidence, though that may actually turn some scouts off.  Per NBA.com's David Aldridge, the Croatian told Basketball Insiders that he "would probably be the No. 1 pick" if he were in college, though an Eastern Conference executive admitted to Aldridge that all the tools for stardom are there: 

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You can see the tools. He's got good size, he's a good athlete, he's got a good looking stroke. Now, the game I saw, he didn't make a lot of shots. But he can come over here athletically and fit in. There's some stuff to like in him. I just haven't seen it all come together a lot.

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Hezonja is Aldridge's only shooting guard currently projected to end up in the lottery, though reserve Kentucky guard Devin Booker could intrigue some after workouts.  Although he's too raw to contribute in 2015-16, in spite of what his ego may suggest, Hezonja is tailor-made to succeed in today's NBA.

Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA

If this were an article about potential fallers, Looney would actually belong here as well.  After playing just a single season at Westwood, the 6'10" Looney is an unpolished product who needs more functional strength to even compete with NBA bigs.  Consequently, he figures to be a divisive prospect among lottery squads, given that he likely won't even crack the rotation next season:

Despite his unrefined game, Looney still nearly averaged a double-double during his freshman year, putting up 11.6 points and 9.2 boards per game.  That's a tantalizing tease into his potential upside, and consequently, ESPN's Chad Ford believes that Looney will make it into the top 10 because of the room for projection: 

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NBA readiness is part of the draft equation, but it isn't the draft equation. Too many people look at box scores or see a player have an unimpressive game and dismiss them as NBA prospects. That especially happens with young players who aren't physically ready to dominate college, let alone the pros.

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For what it's worth, in Ford's piece, Kevin Pelton's wins above replacement player (WARP) projections place Looney in the "likely to become a quality starter" category, though he'll probably be right around replacement level during his initial foray into the league.  Besides strength, Looney needs to develop more range, as he won't demand much respect outside the paint at the moment.

Someone with his natural rebounding ability should have a higher floor than Looney's game would suggest, though, as his freakish length should make him a difficult matchup in the frontcourt.  If he ever develops a mid-range game, Looney becomes reminiscent of a rangy wing like Lamar Odom.

Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Despite a rough final against Kentucky, no player's stock rose more during the NCAA tournament than the junior forward Dekker.  His regular-season per-game averages were relatively constant from his sophomore season, but Dekker's offensive numbers, particularly his shooting percentages, exploded as Wisconsin made its run to the championship final:

	PTS/Game	FG %	3P %	FT %
Regular Season	13.1	51.5	32.1	69.3
NCAA Tournament	19.2	57.1	41.7	70.6

The 6'9" wing doesn't possess a natural stroke from deep range, as most of his collegiate offense came from beating slower defenders off the dribble.  He won't enjoy that advantage against most NBA opponents, though he could thrive in small-ball lineups.  

Dekker is a terrific finisher around the basket, but unless he improves his ball-handling skills, it's hard to imagine him generating as many easy looks at the rim as he enjoyed at Madison.

By traditional scouting methods, Dekker doesn't necessarily possess the offensive skill set to warrant a lottery selection.  However, as ESPN's Kevin Pelton notes, Dekker is actually an analytics darling despite his unorthodox profile:

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Still, Dekker always has been rated better by WARP projection until the scouting consensus caught up over the past month. He's a high-percentage 2-point shooter for a perimeter player (63.9 percent this season, 59.1 percent career) and an efficient player because he turns the ball over so rarely -- just 7.3 percent of his plays this season ended in turnovers.

Most small forwards who enter the league are either floor stretchers or elite athletes, and Dekker doesn't fall into either of those groups (he's a below-average rebounder for a small forward, and his steal rate was troublingly low in Bo Ryan's conservative defense). If he makes it as a pro -- and his unorthodox strengths suggest he can -- Dekker will create a new mold all his own.

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Dekker became a fan favorite throughout the Badgers' tourney run because of his swagger and fearless heat-check shooting from deep.  Despite suboptimal explosiveness for a wing, Dekker possesses enough strengths in an unusual skill profile to suggest that he'll find a way to carve out an NBA role.