Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards: 1st-Round Analysis and Prediction
The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards should take comfort in the fact that their first-round opponent has struggled just as much as they have since the All-Star break.
Toronto's 13-16 record and Washington's 13-15 mark since Feb. 18 rank 18th and 19th in the NBA, respectively. Both sides endured their fair share of injuries during that span, with defensive lapses and scoring droughts making matters much worse.
A franchise-best 49 wins for the Raptors and the most wins for Washington (46) since 1978-79 aren't enough to mask what's been a tumultuous second half of the season.
The playoffs present a clean slate, though, as these two teams look to erase that sour taste and replace it with the sweet aroma of early postseason glory.
Head-to-Head Record: 3-0, Raptors
| Nov. 7, 2014 | 103-84, Raptors | WAS held to 36.1 percent shooting |
| Jan. 31, 2015 | 120-116 OT, Raptors | Kyle Lowry 23 points |
| Feb. 11, 2015 | 95-93, Raptors | Lou Williams 27 points off the bench |
Series Schedule
| 1 | April 18 | 12:30 p.m. | Toronto | ESPN |
| 2 | April 21 | 8 p.m. | Toronto | NBA TV |
| 3 | April 24 | 8 p.m. | Washington, D.C. | ESPN 2 |
| 4 | April 26 | 7 p.m. | Washington, D.C. | TNT |
| 5 (if necessary) | April 29 | TBD | Toronto | TBD |
| 6 (if necessary) | May 1 | TBD | Washington, D.C. | TBD |
| 7 (if necessary) | May 3 | TBD | Toronto | TBD |
Key Season Stats
| Raptors | 27-14 | 22-19 | 108.1 (3) | 104.8 (23) | 3.2 (10) |
| Wizards | 29-12 | 17-24 | 101.8 (19) | 100.0 (5) | 1.9 (12) |
Raptors X-Factor: Lou Williams
It's safe to assume that DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry will continue being Toronto's one-two punch in the postseason. The team will need a consistent third option to alleviate some of the pressure, though.
Cue Lou Williams, who finished second in the NBA in bench scoring with 15.1 points.
Williams can take over games with his offensive prowess as he lures defenders in with savvy fakes, drawing fouls and finding himself at the charity stripe. If Washington bites, Lou will make them pay.
Wizards X-Factor: Bradley Beal
It was 21-year-old Bradley Beal who led the Wizards in scoring during its 11-game playoff run last year, averaging 19.2 points and 5.0 rebounds.
Most of Toronto's attention will be directed at Paul Pierce and John Wall. Pierce is a notorious Raptor killer, and Wall is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA today.
Then there's Beal, an under-the-radar two-way player with a fantastic outside game. His 40.9 three-point percentage was 13th in the league.
The one outing he had against Toronto this season was the overtime loss on Jan. 31 when he scored 26 points. Had he been healthy for the other two, perhaps we wouldn't be discussing the Raptors' dominance over Washington to the degree we are.
Player Efficiency Rating Comparison
Three Pressing Questions/Strategic Keys
Will Paul Pierce's Recent Comments Spark the Raptors?
In an interview with Jackie MacMullan of ESPN.com, Pierce mentioned how the Raptors don't have the "it" factor that would make the Wizards shake in their sneakers.
"We haven't done particularly well against Toronto, but I don't feel they have the 'It' that makes you worried,'' Pierce said.
Raptors head coach Dwane Casey, who was somewhat puzzled by what The Truth had to say, believes this is just another reason why his team needs to continue proving itself, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca:
"It? Whatever 'It' is. I have to ask Paul what 'It' is. Everybody's got their opinion. If he feels that way about us, or whoever else. That's something we've always [done]. You've got to go out in this league and prove it to people if they don't feel like we have 'It'. We have to find out what 'It' is.
"
If Pierce was laying down a challenge, then it appears Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan is ready to face it head on.
As if winning the first seven-game series in franchise history wasn't enough, the Raptors now have extra motivation to give the Wizards all they can handle and then some.
Will Dwane Casey Let James Johnson Loose?
Despite being one of Toronto's stronger defenders with a defensive rating of 101.9, James Johnson can't seem to muster up consistent minutes in Casey's rotation.
It's reasonable to think Casey will shorten his bench for the playoffs, but having Johnson be the odd man out would be a huge mistake if that's the case.
Not only is he a menace on the defensive end, but his willingness to get to the rim on offense and work in the paint adds tremendous value when he does see the hardwood.
Casey puts much emphasis on the things Johnson does wrong, like how he'll occasionally leave his man on defense to help a teammate. “Sometimes my greatest attribute can be my weakness, because I always want to help somebody," Johnson said, per Alex Ballingall of the Toronto Star.
If given ample opportunity, Johnson could be a difference-maker in this series. That is, if Casey is willing to step back and let his red-haired swingman work his magic.
Will Both Coaches Bother to Use Their Big Men?
You can bet your bottom dollar that both Casey and Randy Wittman are going to play small ball more often than not.
Jonas Valanciunas and Marcin Gortat are two of the most talented centers in the league, yet their respective coaches have found it difficult to incorporate them into their schemes on a regular basis.
When one side pulls its starting center, the other will follow suit shortly thereafter. That's a big reason why both of their numbers are so poor when Toronto and Washington clash.
| Jonas Valanciunas | 20.4 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| Marcin Gortat | 25.8 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.0 |
Casey prefers to stretch the floor with Patrick Patterson because Washington's bigs aren't mobile enough to defend, leaving Gortat rendered useless.
The only way these two have a chance at major postseason minutes is if they give their coaches enough reason to keep them out there. Hot starts and hard-nosed defense should do the trick. Maybe put some points on the board as well.
Perhaps Casey and Wittman are so set in their ways that it doesn't matter what the big men do.
Why the Raptors Will Win
The Raptors possess the psychological advantage in this series, having already beaten Washington three times this year. Their dominance dates back to the 2012-13 season, with seven wins in the last eight meetings.
As stout as the Wizards are defensively, Toronto's 107.0 offensive rating against them proves they can be attacked.
If and when the Raptors get hot from the field, it's going to be difficult for Washington to keep pace. Toronto's elite bench (fifth in scoring at 38.9, per Hoops Stats) and younger legs should put them over the top.
Why the Wizards Will Win
Wall is the best player in this series. His lightning-quick speed and dribble penetration will be a nightmare for Kyle Lowry to defend.
He struggled shooting the basketball against Toronto this season (40.9 percent), but against a defense with as many holes as The Matrix trilogy, the two-time NBA All-Star will adapt and hone in more on the basket.
Washington will feast on the glass, defend like crazy and get big performances from its wing-heavy offense.
Prediction: Toronto Raptors in six.
Christopher Walder is a Featured Columnist for the Toronto Raptors at Bleacher Report. He's also a staff writer for Raptors HQ of SB Nation. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
*All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless noted otherwise*
