Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for San Francisco 49ers' Top 3 Picks
The best-case scenario for the San Francisco 49ers in the draft does not involve trading into the top five picks of Round 1.
In a recent mock draft, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated had the Niners trading up to the fourth pick for former USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams, a good player. He would make a fine replacement for Justin Smith if he retires.
The Niners should not trade into the top five for Williams or anyone.
Trading into the top five would cost them their first-round pick, their second-round pick and maybe more. The Niners have too many needs to trade two or three premium picks for just one player. A big trade-up in Round 1 isn’t realistic.
The following picks are more plausible. These are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Niners' first three draft picks.
Round 1 Best-Case Scenario: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
1 of 6
Most draft experts consider former Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper a top-five pick and the best receiver in the draft.
Cooper is the most polished receiver coming out of college this year. But teams might feel he is closer to reaching the peak of his potential than other receivers with more upside. NFL teams love upside.
Former West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White (6'3", 215 lbs, 4.35 40-yard dash) and former Central Florida receiver Breshad Perriman (6'2", 212 lbs, 4.24) are bigger and faster than Cooper (6'1", 211 lbs, 4.42). Teams might draft White and Perriman ahead of Cooper. Funny things happen.
The 49ers are interested in trading up for Cooper, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. If Cooper falls to pick No. 13, they might be able to trade their first-round pick and their fourth-round pick to get him.
Round 1 Worst-Case Scenario: Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
2 of 6
Former UCLA inside linebacker Eric Kendricks might be creeping into the Niners’ range. In a recent mock draft, Josh Norris of Rotoworld predicted the Houston Texans will pick Kendricks at No. 16.
Here’s what Norris wrote: “Kendricks is a complete three-down linebacker. Obviously he is aggressive moving forward against the run. What is uncommon is Kendricks' comfort and success in coverage."
The Niners need what Norris described. But his description may not fit Kendricks.
Kendricks made only 26 tackles for losses in four seasons at UCLA, and he weighs just 232 pounds. He has great range sideline to sideline, and he can cover tight ends man to man. But he doesn’t make many plays behind the line of scrimmage, and he doesn’t take on blocking linemen particularly well. He’s better at defending the pass than defending the run. He might be just a nickel defense linebacker until he bulks up.
Reaching for Kendricks in Round 1 is the worst thing the Niners can do.
Round 2 Best-Case Scenario: Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
3 of 6
The 49ers could use an elite cornerback prospect in the starting lineup.
The top six corners in the draft are Michigan State’s Trae Waynes, Washington’s Marcus Peters, Wake Forest’s Kevin Johnson, UConn’s Byron Jones, LSU’s Jalen Collins and Utah’s Eric Rowe. The Niners probably can’t get any of them with their pick in Round 2. Those six should be gone by then.
All six are 6’0” or taller. The seventh-best corner, Florida State’s Ronald Darby, is 5’11”, but he's just as athletic as the top six corners. At the combine, he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash, a 6.94 three-cone drill, a 4.14 20-yard shuttle and posted a 41 ½-inch vertical jump,
Darby is fast, explosive and agile—he just isn’t 6’0”. But the Niners might not care. Both of their starting corners are shorter than 6’0”: Tramaine Brock is 5’10”, and Shareece Wright is 5’11”.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Round 2 Worst-Case Scenario: Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami (Florida)
4 of 6
Former University of Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman made 110 tackles last season. He is strong (30 reps on the bench), small (5’11”, 236 lbs) and slow (4.78 40-yard dash at the combine).
But he ran a solid 4.70 at his pro day, and now some experts expect teams to draft Perryman in Round 2. The Niners could be the team that picks him.
Perryman would start Week 1 at left inside linebacker, the position Chris Borland played last season. Perryman and Borland are similar. Their ferociousness makes up for their athletic shortcomings.
But they struggle in man-to-man coverage. Perryman posted a good 40-yard-dash time at his pro day, but he can’t cover NFL tight ends in space. He couldn’t cover them even in college. He was a two-down linebacker at Miami. San Francisco should not spend a second-round pick on a two-down player.
Round 3 Best-Case Scenario: Paul Dawson, LB, TCU
5 of 6
Paul Dawson was the best three-down linebacker in college football last season. He broke up five passes and made 20 tackles for losses—almost as many as Kendricks made during his entire collegiate career.
Dawson’s athleticism recently came into question. He ran a 4.93 at the combine and a 4.75 at his pro day, although he seems faster when he plays.
Draft experts also question his work ethic and attitude. NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein says Dawson is “not a film studier,” although he also says Dawson “plays hard and practices hard.”
Dawson would benefit from a team that has a strong locker room and a veteran linebacker to mentor him. Three-time All-Pro inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman would be a terrific mentor for Dawson. He and the Niners are a good match.
Round 3 Worst-Case Scenario: Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State
6 of 6
The Niners need a quarterback to back up Colin Kaepernick next season and possibly replace him in 2016. In theory, it makes sense to spend a third-round pick on a quarterback.
But it does not make sense to spend one on former Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson. Grayson doesn’t have the talent to replace Kaepernick. If Kaepernick were a Maserati, Grayson would be a Mazda Miata.
Grayson is skinny (213 lbs), and his passes lack zip. But he played in a pro-style system in college, so some draft experts think he can play in the NFL right away. Some consider Grayson the third-best quarterback in the draft—that's how bad of a year it is for quarterbacks. Experts expect teams to draft Grayson in Round 3.
Grayson told WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell he met with the Niners at the Senior Bowl, so he seems to be on their radar. They should erase him from it. Instead of spending a third-round pick on Grayson, they should spend a sixth-round pick or seventh-round pick on a quarterback who has upside—someone like former Southeastern Louisiana quarterback Bryan Bennett or former Alabama quarterback Blake Sims.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
