Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Cleveland Browns' Top 3 Picks

The Cleveland Browns' first three picks in the 2015 NFL draft are in Rounds 1 and 2—two in the first round and one in the second. It's also the third time in four years that they have two Round 1 picks. 

What teams do in the draft, particularly with their higher-round picks, does much to determine not only how successful they are in the season that immediately follows but also how the team performs in the longer term. 

While it's hard to always get every pick right, given the draft's inherent uncertainty, some outcomes are better than others. Still, there are best- and worst-case scenarios that can play out, even with the best-intentioned draft plans. 

Here are the best- and worst-case outcomes for the Browns' first three picks in this year's draft.

Best: The Browns Pick Three Players Who Produce as Rookies

Craig Ruttle/Associated Press

If the Browns' top three draft picks aren't surrounded by question marks in a year's time, it will have been a win for the team.

No matter what positions the Browns end up targeting with their first three picks in this year's draft, the ideal outcome is that all three can make significant contributions in their rookie seasons.

This seems like a no-brainer. But a look at the Browns' recent draft history shows just how difficult it has been for the team to select players in early rounds of the draft and have them pay off significant immediate dividends.

The jury is still out on two of the Browns' three top picks last year, cornerback Justin Gilbert and quarterback Johnny Manziel. But neither had exceptional rookie seasons, with both players making more headlines for their off-field missteps and attitude problems than their on-field work. 

Their 2013 first-round pick, linebacker Barkevious Mingo, has yet to live up to his potential, with just 84 combined tackles and seven sacks over two seasons. Their third-round pick that year (their second in that draft), defensive back Leon McFadden, is no longer in Cleveland.

In 2012, the Browns took running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden in Round 1. Neither remain on the roster. Though the Browns did get a 2014 first-round pick from the Indianapolis Colts in trade for Richardson, that pick was spent on Manziel, who, again, is a work-in-progress at best.

The Browns need to select players early in this draft who can play well as rookies and make strong cases to remain on the roster as the years pass. The only way the Browns will be able to turn their fortunes around is by drafting and developing high-quality talents. If they can get three in the first two rounds this year, that would mean a major step forward for the franchise.

Worst: Trading Multiple Picks for QB Marcus Mariota

Eric Gay/Associated Press

It would be a fool's errand for the Browns to package multiple picks to move up for quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Last week, Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reported that "multiple league sources" have told him that the Browns are seriously considering packaging their two Round 1 picks—Nos. 12 and 19—to move up to be able to select Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. 

Doing so would be a major mistake.

While it's true that Mariota is one of the two best quarterbacks in this year's draft and should be taken within the top 10 or even top five picks, that doesn't mean the Browns need to make a run for him. Not even with the longstanding reports that Browns general manager Ray Farmer has an infatuation with the idea of bringing him to Cleveland.

The Browns' quarterback situation is murky, but it wouldn't be made any more clear with the addition of Mariota. Though he lacks the off-the-field concerns of Johnny Manziel, his style of play is similar, as is his slight frame. Even if Mariota proves to eventually become one of the NFL's better quarterbacks, it is going to take some serious development and adjustment to get him there.

Currently, the Browns have four quarterbacks on the roster—Manziel, Josh McCown, Connor Shaw and Thaddeus Lewis. Among the quartet, the Browns should be able to find a starter, even if it's McCown in a stopgap role. The Browns' Round 1 picks are just too valuable to the team, given their other needs, to justify using them to move up for a quarterback who is not a sure thing. It would be a mistake to package any combination of picks to move up for Mariota, but especially their pair of first-rounders.

Best: Selecting a WR

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Arizona State's Jaelen Strong is among the wide receivers the Browns would be smart to consider with an early-round pick.

Last year's draft class of wide receivers was one of the deepest and most talented in recent memory. Still, the Browns did not use a single one of their picks on the position even though they were considered very much in need of a young, game-changing wideout.

This year, the need remains, and the draft class is just as deep, if not more so. The Browns would be smart to not only draft a receiver this time around but to take a top prospect with one of their first three picks. 

With picks at Nos. 12 and 19 in Round 1, the Browns could have their pick of the draft's better receivers, such as West Virginia's Kevin White, Alabama's Amari Cooper, Louisville's DeVante Parker or Arizona State's Jaelen Strong. Letting all of these players pass them by, should they still be on the board, would be a huge mistake.

The Browns brought in two veteran receivers to round out their passing offense, Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline. But what the Browns need even more is a young talent who can continue to help the team for years to come. Wide receiver seems like an obvious use for a Browns' early pick, and that's why they must make that move this year.

Worst: Ignoring the WR Position—Again

Garry Jones/Associated Press

The Browns can't possibly look at receivers like DeVante Parker and view them as not worth it for a second straight draft.

If a best-case scenario for the Browns' use of their early round draft picks is to spend one on a wide receiver, then it follows that ignoring the position for a second straight year would be a worst-case situation for the team.

That's not to say that the Browns cannot or should not use a middle- or later-round pick on a receiver; in fact, doing so sounds like a smart move. But only if it comes after taking one of the draft's better receivers in Rounds 1 or 2. There is simply no point in putting off the position until Day 3 or putting it off entirely, as they did in 2014.

There are some exceptional talents at receiver that should be within the Browns' reach. Pushing them away for a second straight year makes no sense. The Browns have a need, and there are a number of quality players who can fill it.

Even if the Browns are comfortable with where they stand now at receiver, the opportunity to get better should be argument enough for an early draft pick to go to such a valuable position. Waiting for 2016 is not an option; they're lucky as it is that the 2015 draft class rivals 2014's in terms of the quality of receivers available.

Best: Entertain the Right Trade Offers

Craig Ruttle/Associated Press

Just because the Browns have the picks doesn't means they must use all of them on players. There are other ways to add value via the draft.

It's one thing for the Browns to package their two first-round picks to move up for quarterback Marcus Mariota. It's another thing entirely for the Browns to listen carefully to trade offers in order to maximize the chances to get multiple playmakers.

For example, the Browns may be willing to use their first Round 1 pick, at 12th overall, on a player but then move down from No. 19, allowing them the chance to add a first-round pick at the bottom of the draft and a second Round 2 pick. 

They could also move down in Round 2 in order to pick up another selection in Round 3. The Browns are no stranger to maximizing pick value, whether in the same year or the year that follows. That's how the Browns were able to amass 11 picks in the 2012 draft and to parlay many of their 2013 picks into two selections in each of Round 1 and Round 3 last year.

The draft is all about what teams make of their picks, and that doesn't necessarily mean they must take a player with each pick they came into the event with. There are other ways to add value by increasing draft picks in the present or in the future. The Browns could stand to benefit greatly from making a well-calculated trade of picks early on.

Worst: Going Offensive Line in Round 1

Associated Press

La'el Collins in Round 1? No thanks.

A number of NFL draft experts have been predicting that the Browns will take an offensive lineman with one of their two first-round picks this year. It's not a bad idea for the Browns to address the offensive line at some point in the draft, but doing so in Round 1 would be a mistake.

The common thread about these predictions is right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Though there has been no official word that he will be moved out of the position, potentially to right guard, many believe that Schwartz is the weak link on the line. Thus, tackles like La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers have been linked to the team.

Though Schwartz ranked 33rd out of all offensive tackles for 2014 by Pro Football Focus, he actually ranked 13th among right tackles who played at least 10 games. At the same time, right guard John Greco ranked 11th among all offensive guards. 

There is no need to replace Schwartz with a rookie this year and even less to replace Greco with Schwartz. And if the Browns do want to make a change at right tackle, they need to look no further than their own roster and Michael Bowie to do so.

The Browns could stand to add more depth to their offensive line, particularly at center given how completely Cleveland's run game collapsed when Alex Mack suffered a fractured leg last year. But Round 1 is not the place for it, especially given their other needs. To sacrifice a run-stopper, an explosive pass-rusher or a playmaking receiver for an offensive tackle would not be the best use of either of the Browns' first-round picks.