Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Indianapolis Colts' Top 3 Picks

Ryan Grigson giveth, and Ryan Grigson taketh away. 

That's the best way to describe the drafts of the fourth-year general manager thus far in his Indianapolis career. 

In 2012, the Colts blew away draft expectations with Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hilton joining Andrew Luck as core pieces of the franchise. In 2013, the Colts drafted the disappointing Bjoern Werner followed by two disappointing interior offensive linemen in Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes.

The 2014 haul was better with Jack Mewhort, Donte Moncrief and Jonathan Newsome all contributing as rookies, but Grigson's late picks once again went by without much contribution.

In short, anything could happen with Grigson at the helm. This, after all, is the man who traded a first-round pick for Trent Richardson. But when preparing for the 2015 NFL draft, we still have to be somewhat realistic. So, we look at a best and worst-case scenario for Indianapolis for each of the Colts' first-round picks.

Nothing will beat drafting Luck in 2012, and nothing could be worse than trading for Trent Richardson, but I'm sure we can find plenty of room for conversation in between. 

Best Case, First Round: CB Marcus Peters

The first-round pick will be the most-scrutinized of the draft picks, and for good reason.

The Colts haven't had a productive first-round pick since Andrew Luck, and it's the best chance for the Colts to get a long-term stud for a roster that desperately needs blue-chip talent. 

That's why, with pick No. 29, my best-case scenario isn't the top safety on the board, although that's a big need, but cornerback Marcus Peters, my pick for the most talented player that could still be on the board at No. 29. 

Peters is the best chance this draft has for a lockdown, press-man cornerback, something that would give the Colts a dynamite defensive backfield for years to come. At 6'0", 197 pounds, Peters has what Lance Zierlein of NFL.com called "protoypical size" for the position along with strong instincts and physicality to hold up while jamming receivers. 

As Chris Burke of SI.com said, "If you asked scouts to design a draftable cornerback, the result would look something like Peters."

No, he's not perfect, and his maturity issues got him kicked off the Washington football team. But the Colts did a nice job on another cornerback with maturity issues, and now Vontae Davis is one of the best in the league. Peters might be the prospect most likely to become a star in Indianapolis, which puts him at the top of my draft board.

Worst Case, First Round: S Damarious Randall

Three months ago, Demarious Randall of Arizona State was Matt Miller of Bleacher Report's 181st-ranked player, and the seventh-ranked free safety. 

Today, Randall is being linked to several first-round teams by Miller and others, including the Indianapolis Colts. 

So what happened between then and now? Well, the combine, for one. 

Randall was a top performer in almost every drill, finishing with top-three numbers in the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, the three-cone drill and the 20-yard short shuttle. The combine numbers apparently got people talking about Randall, and now he's being hyped as a potential first-round pick. 

Combine numbers aren't useless, but no player should be moving 100-plus spots just because of the combine. Especially not when that player has "average" instincts as a free safety and technique in coverage that "needs work," as NFL.com's Lance Zierlein said. 

That's not to say Randall is a bad player, but you can get that kind of player in the third, fourth or fifth rounds. Landon Collins is the top safety on the board, and the only one worth taking in Round 1 by my measure. Reaching for a need gets you in trouble, and Randall would be a big reach.

Best Case, Second Round: DE Preston Smith

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The best-case scenario for the second-round really just involves a first-round talent, or fringe first-round talent, falling. In this case, had the Colts taken a cornerback in the first round, the team would do well to find a playmaker in the front seven in the second round. 

One potential disruptor would be Mississippi State's Preston Smith.

On the defensive line, the Colts need potential. They need athleticism that can develop into future blue-chip quality and they need disruption capability and pass-rush versatility. 

Smith fits that bill. He is a strong, powerful big man with elite quickness on the defensive line. He finished with top marks in the 40-yard dash, broad jump, three-cone drill and 60-yard shuttle at the NFL combine. His weight (271) says he'd be best fit in a 4-3 as a defensive end, but he's not quite flexible enough to be a strong pass-rusher on the edge.

However, he could fit as an interior lineman in a 3-4 hybrid like the Colts, and he has the strength at the point of attack to develop into a 5-technique. 

If you're the Colts, slide him inside on passing downs and let him get after the quarterback.

Worst Case, Second Round: S Gerod Holliman, Louisville

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

Another case of reaching for a safety, another nightmare for me. 

The problem with Louisville's Gerod Holliman isn't just one thing, it's multiple. 

The good is obvious: the man had 14 interceptions in 2014, and that's hard to ignore. But the bad is hard to ignore as well. Holliman is one of the softest, contact-averse safeties I've ever seen, which really doesn't fly in the NFL. He's got great hands and ball skills, which is valuable for a safety, but he was only productive in that sense for one year, which is a strange aberration.

Holliman is not a plus athlete, but relies on being in the right place at the right time, which was highly dependent on Louisville's scheme in 2015, as Detroit Lions Draft's Jeff Risdon broke down.

"

The point here is that while Holliman demonstrated great ball skills, much of his prodigious success came as a result of the Cardinals tailoring the defense to his particular set of skills. NFL teams can do that to some degree, but NFL offensive coordinators are smarter than their collegiate counterparts. So are the quarterbacks. They will look him off. They will attack him, forcing him to commit to a role instead of roaming free to simply read the QB’s eyes and play the ball.

"

Again, the problem isn't that Holliman is useless, it's that the Colts' need for a safety isn't bad enough for the Colts to start reaching for one. In the second round, you're looking for first-round guys that dropped, and that's not Holliman.

Best Case, Third Round: RB Ameer Abdullah

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Barring a top defensive playmaker dropping here, my best-case scenarios all involve getting value at running back in the second or third round. 

Drafting a running back early in the draft isn't historically great value, but this particular draft is overflowing with talent in this area, and somebody very talented could drop to the bottom of the third round. Thus, my second-favorite running back prospect that the Colts could see available outside of the first round: Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah. 

While Abdullah's frame is small at 5'9", he fills it out well at 205 pounds, and his measurables are off the charts. His 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds wasn't great (down to 4.53 at pro day), but Abdullah is in the 89th percentile or better in the 60-yard shuttle, the 20-yard shuttle, the broad jump and the vertical jump, hinting at elite short-area burst and flexibility. 

That's evident on tape as well, and Abdullah was incredibly productive in 2014, rushing for nearly 1,700 yards and nine touchdowns. Abdullah has good vision and is patient, while also being a top-notch contributor in the passing game. He fits exactly what the Colts need at running back. 

Worst Case, Third Round: OL Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

My worst-case scenarios all involve reaching for players, and this is a player that the Colts have shown a lot of interest in during the pre-draft process, making him a prime candidate for a potential reach. 

According to Josh Norris of Rotoworld, Poutasi had a private workout with the Colts, and the team made a point of talking to him at the combine as well, per Mike Chappell's report for The Salt Lake Tribune. 

I like Poutasi as a mid-to-late-round project, as he has a lot of raw skills a team like Indianapolis would look for. But this early, with more important holes still to fill, taking a player as raw as Poutasi would be low on my list. 

This is a player that Lance Zierlein compares to Mike McGlynn, after all. With the depth of this class, there will likely be some premium talent left in the third and fourth rounds. Drafting yet another depth guard who won't contribute right away would be inefficient to say the least.