NBA Playoff Picture 2015: Assessing Postseason Spots Up for Grabs in Final Week
With the Milwaukee Bucks' victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday, all but three of the NBA's postseason berths have been locked up.
Two of those, of course, come in the lowly Eastern Conference, where a few teams are competing to get squashed like bugs by the Hawks and Cavaliers. The other, a battle for the West's No. 8 seed, was far more interesting a couple of months ago. Now we're looking at a Kevin Durant-less, possibly Serge Ibaka-less Thunder and a weird Pelicans roster that has no chance of looking the same come October.
Odds are we'll forget these races by early May. We'll instead look at them as a weird jockeying for spots that ultimately don't matter, all while giving up a juicy potential lottery pick. (Except for Brooklyn—the Nets have zero incentive to do anything but fight until their last breath.)
That said, these races are all we have left pushing us through the final week of the regular season before the good stuff begins. With that in mind, let's take a look at the remaining threads that need to be tied and assess the threat level of each contender.
Eastern Conference
First Thing: Does Anyone Really Want the No. 7 Seed?
Other than Brooklyn, there is a reasonable question to be asked about why any of the still-alive teams would fight for a postseason berth. None of them has even the remotest chance of winning the championship. Even a second-round appearance would have to be a result of a cataclysmic injury—think Derrick Rose in 2012.
On the other hand, the teams that fall out will wind up with the 10th- or 11th-best chance at winning the lottery. That gives you roughly a 1 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, a small but not insignificant number. Remember, the Bulls and Cavaliers have won the lottery with 1.7 percent chances in recent seasons.
If I'm running the Celtics, Heat, Pacers, etc., I'm secretly hoping for a loss every time my team touches the floor. (Miami's an interesting case. It gives its pick to the 76ers as long as it falls outside the top 10. Right now, the Heat are in the No. 10 hole and will probably have to lose out for Charlotte to pass them—assuming the Hornets can actually, you know, win.)
That's especially the case if we're looking at the No. 7 seed, which means a trip to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and have been so since adding Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov. They're one of the two or three best offensive teams in basketball and have been defending at an acceptable rate since the All-Star break. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving also seem to have figured one another out, which is just dandy for everyone not named Kevin Love.
Top-seeded Atlanta appears to be running out of steam. Thabo Sefolosha is out for the season, Paul Millsap is dealing with a shoulder injury and the remainder of the team just frankly hasn't been playing its best basketball. It's fair to wonder whether the Hawks are a classic peaked-early team.
Not peaked early as in "could possibly be beaten by a No. 8 seed," but I'd certainly rather see them than the Cavs at this point. There's a good chance many battling for those final spots feel the same.
Threat-Level Power Rankings
1. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers could take Atlanta to six, maybe even seven games. Frank Vogel has been coaching his (curse word) off all season, coaxing near-competent play out of a bunch of eighth men and constantly injured stars. Right now is the first time they've been reasonably healthy all season—and that's with Paul George still getting his basketball sea legs back.
We saw how these two match up last season. Vogel draws up brilliant defensive strategies designed to thwart Atlanta's offense; Mike Budenholzer counters with adjustments; Vogel re-counters; and the whole thing repeats itself until one team comes out on top.
Indiana is neither healthy enough nor talented enough to take down Atlanta or Cleveland outright. Of the possibilities for that No. 8 seed, though, landing the team with the returning superstar would be the worst possible scenario.
2. Brooklyn Nets
There are good, veteran NBA players on this team. That's a sort of backhanded compliment, but that's what passes for playoff threats in the Eastern Conference. Brook Lopez has been playing out of his mind for two months now, the Deron Williams-Jarrett Jack point guard combo isn't half-bad and Joe Johnson and Thad Young are consistent nightly performers.
Brooklyn has scored at a top-10 rate since the All-Star break and has wins against the Blazers, Raptors, Wizards and Cleveland in the last couple of weeks. Play this season over again, and the Nets are probably the No. 5 or No. 6 seed—depending on just how real Washington's second-half swoon has been.
As it stands, the Nets are merely a team that exists to annoy the Hawks. If they make the playoffs, they drop the pick Atlanta receives outside the lottery, all while the two are likely going head-to-head in a series. Brooklyn's playing well enough at this point to at least win one game and possibly two.
3. Miami Heat
Miami has a minuscule chance at making the playoffs, but it wouldn't be fun for anyone in Atlanta if it got there.
Dwyane Wade has been very good when he's been on the floor this season, and playoff scheduling eliminates back-to-backs. Hassan Whiteside has been one of the year's best stories when he can keep his head about him. Goran Dragic is back to playing at 80 percent of his 2013-14 level since arriving at Miami. Luol Deng is out there doing Luol Deng things.
It's easy to forget now, but the basketball world was swooning over this roster before Chris Bosh's scary blood clot situation. Bosh's absence makes it impossible to know what the Heat's true ceiling was, and they're likely headed to the lottery. They'll need to win out and get some luck to have a chance at even striking a glancing shot at Atlanta's bow.
4. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are making the playoffs, and all the credit in the world goes to Brad Stevens. In a just world, he'd be getting far more consideration for Coach of the Year. Stevens has coaxed near-.500 basketball out of a roster without functional rim protection or much in the way individual offensive creation outside Isaiah Thomas.
Keep in mind Thomas has played 20 games in a Celtics uniform.
It's a testament to Stevens' staff that he has his team playing decent basketball on both ends. The Avery Bradley-Marcus Smart twosome is going to wreak havoc on opposing backcourts for years to come, Jae Crowder's made himself a chunk of change as a solid eighth man and Evan Turner, umm, isn't that bad sometimes!
The Celtics are a fun story. They also pose zero threat to Cleveland or Atlanta. Stevens might be able to coach his way to a win, but the talent-level disparity here is massive. Boston has zero All-Stars—and arguably has zero future All-Stars—while Cleveland and Atlanta were half of the Eastern team.
Western Conference
Threat-Level Power Rankings
1. New Orleans Pelicans
It comes down to a battle of Functional NBA Team vs. One-Man Wrecking Crew. The Pelicans, despite their weird (and ill-advised) roster construction, start five solid NBA players on a nightly basis and have an eight-man rotation you cannot complain about.
Plus, Anthony Davis probably counts toward that one-man wrecking crew total. Davis has been the best two-way player in basketball all season, hamstrung by his health and teammates in the MVP race. He's on pace to become just the ninth player in NBA history with a player efficiency rating above 30, all while buzzing around on defense and using his length to unleash holy hell.
The best part: Davis isn't anywhere close to reaching his potential on either end. A 22-year-old Davis can affect games with his sheer force; the 25-year-old version is going to bend the game to his will, combining his physical gifts with a better mental acumen.
Getting Jrue Holiday back also adds an interesting wrinkle, as he and Tyreke Evans give New Orleans two ball-handlers who can reliably create off the dribble. Add in the rim protection of Omer Asik and the floor spacing provided by Ryan Anderson and Quincy Pondexter, and you could probably talk yourself into the Pelicans giving the Warriors a little trouble.
You'd also be an insane person. But, hey, talking to oneself typically implies a little bit of insanity.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
I cannot overemphasize how much I've enjoyed Russell Westbrook's manic brilliance this season. I also cannot overemphasize how little I want to see that over the course of a seven-game series.
Westbrook, with apologies to Enes Kanter, is essentially a one-man team at this point. He barrels his head into the lane, hopes for something good to happen and then does it all again on the next trip. Sometimes, he explodes, and everything about the world is beautiful. Other times, it's abysmal, and then we have to have The Westbrook Conversation again.
You know the one. Typically, it involves how Westbrook's "selfishness" is limiting Kevin Durant's ceiling. Durant's absence will quell that conversation somewhat, but rest assured #NBATwitter find a way to mutate it if Oklahoma City snatches the eighth spot. Everyone knows a 5-of-20 game is coming at some point over a seven-game series with Westbrook; it's inevitable.
I just don't want to be anywhere near a television or the Internet when it happens.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
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