Lucas Matthysse vs. Ruslan Provodnikov: Preview, Prediction for Upcoming Fight
One of the year's most anxiously anticipated fights takes place this Saturday night at the Turning Stone Casino in Verona, New York, as light welterweights Lucas Matthysse and Ruslan Provodnikov face off in a can't-miss bout. Both of these men have been involved in Fight of the Year battles in recent years.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao will probably set pay-per-view records a few weeks from now. That's the fight the mainstream sports world is talking about, but hardcore fight fans know that for pure action, Matthysse vs. Provodnikov is likely to show it up.
If you're a fight fan, you won't want to be anywhere else but at this fight or watching it in your living room. You can catch it on HBO at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Lucas Matthysse | Ruslan Provodnikov |
| Record: | 36-3, 34 KOs | 24-3, 17 KOs |
| Height: | 5'6 ½" | 5'6" |
| Reach: | 69" | 66" |
| Weight: | 140 lbs | 140 lbs |
| Age: | 32 | 31 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Buenos Aires, Argentina | Beryozovo, Russia |
| Rounds: | 154 | 153 |
Matthysse has 12 more decisions than Provodnikov and has faced a slightly better level of competition overall. But due to his staggering knockout ratio, he has just one more professional round than Provodnikov.
A key statistic in this tale of the tape is Matthysse's three-inch edge in reach. He has a good jab and might be able to exploit that length advantage.
Main Storylines
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On an April 6 media call, Banner Promotions chief Artie Pelullo said he thought this fight had the potential to end up being compared to the first fight between Diego Corrales and Jose Luis Castillo. That 2005 battle is considered one of the greatest fights of all time.
It's a promoter's job to hype a fight, but that comparison isn't out of line. It's tough to imagine two fighters in the sport who are more likely to put on an exciting fight.
Matthysse is one of the sport's best offensive fighters. Provodnikov is as rugged as the harsh Siberian winters that forged him. Matthysse is the unstoppable force, and Provodnikov is the immovable object.
This is the fight both men wanted. In the same media call, Pelullo also noted that the fight took about a half-hour to negotiate, which kind of puts the half-decadelong Mayweather-Pacquiao soap opera in perspective.
There are no alphabet-soup titles on the line here, but this brawl hardly needs them. Matthysse and Provodnikov are both top-five fighters in the world at 140 pounds. They are also the two most fan-friendly stars in the division.
That should add up to a memorable evening for boxing fans.
Strengths
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Lucas Matthysse is a brilliant offensive fighter. He has a solid jab and uses it to set up brutal combinations. When he is landing a hard punch, he is nearly always moving into position to deliver the next one.
Matthysse has a solid chin and outstanding recovery powers.
Ruslan Provodnikov is perhaps the strongest fighter, pound-for-pound, in boxing. He is a concussive puncher who works well to the body. He has a chin of granite.
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Weaknesses
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Lucas Matthysse is an offense-first fighter and leaves himself open to getting hit. He was dropped twice last year by John Molina but was able to overpower him and stop him late.
Provodnikov is a bigger puncher than Molina and far more durable. Taking one to give one is a dangerous strategy against the Siberian Rocky.
Ruslan Provodnikov has a lot of trouble with fighters who move well. Matthysse should be there to hit, but expect him to attempt to control distance and angles in order to put himself in better position to exchange, which could cause problems for Provodnikov.
Provodnikov is prone to swelling badly around his eyes. That could be an issue in a war of attrition like this one promises to be.
Lucas Matthysse Will Win If...
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To beat the rugged and relentless Ruslan Provodnikov, Lucas Matthysse is going to need to establish his jab and use it to set up his combinations. He wants to keep this fight at middle range, where he will have room to fully extend his power shots.
Nobody will ever accuse a slugger like Matthysse of being a "cute" fighter. But he is the better boxer in this fight, and he needs to make some effort to alter angles and force Provodnikov to keep readjusting.
Matthysse has quicker hands than Provodnikov, so as long as he can control the distance, he should be able to dictate the pace of the fight. And with explosive power like Matthysse's, he should win any fight where he can consistently get off first.
Ruslan Provodnikov Will Win If...
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Ruslan Provodnikov is the stronger fighter in this matchup, and he needs to work his way inside and use that power to muscle Lucas Matthysse around the ring and get him into position to unload with power punches.
He won't have to chase Matthysse, but he might need to deal with the hard-punching Argentine jabbing his way forward from angles. Provodnikov has to be prepared to shift and pivot to keep Matthysse directly in front of him.
Provodnikov should invest heavily in a body attack. If he can punish Matthysse to the torso and slow him down, it's going to leave him in good position to take control of the fight in the later rounds.
Prediction
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The easiest prediction to make about this fight is that boxing fans will win. This will be one of the best fights of 2015, and it might be one of the best of this century.
Predicting which warrior will walk out of the ring victorious next Saturday is far tougher. Lucas Matthysse and Ruslan Provodnikov both have the ability to dish out tremendous damage and absorb brutal punishment while delivering it.
But ultimately, I'm picking Matthysse. He has a very good jab and the reach advantage to exploit that weapon and control the distance. His hands are quicker, so he should be able to get off first with his own combinations.
The fight will be brutal and close for the first eight or nine rounds, with Matthysse pulling away late. A late stoppage in the corner would not surprise me.
This is the kind of fight that can solidify the reputations of both men, putting them forever in the category of ring legends. But the fight will take a lot out of both men as well.
Light welterweight and welterweight are stacked weight classes, and there should be plenty of great fights available for both men in the future.
Follow Briggs Seekins on Twitter at #Briggsfighttalk and check out his blog, Pioneers of Boxing, to read about the early, bare-knuckle days of the sport.
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