Chicago Bulls Need Quality, Consistent Minutes from Derrick Rose
Derrick Rose’s return from his meniscectomy makes the Chicago Bulls’ roster complete just in time for the playoffs. This is fantastic for a team that is trying to make a push for its seventh title. What’s even better is that Rose only has to play consistently well as opposed to being the dominant MVP of yesteryear.
As B/R Featured Columnist Kelly Scaletta pointed out in a March 31 article, this is a different Bulls team. They are deeper and more well-rounded than even the 2010 squad that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in Tom Thibodeau’s inaugural year as head coach. Rose can use his strengths to complement everyone else now that he is surrounded by more dynamic teammates.
So what does Rose need to do exactly?
He doesn’t have to do anything differently than he’s already done. In the 48 games he’s played this season he has averaged 18.1 points and 4.9 assists, according to NBA.com. Even with a stat line that is lower than what he has produced in prior seasons, Chicago has a record of 30-18 in those contests.
Some interesting things are lurking within that game sampling, and with a little more delving, it becomes even clearer that Rose just needs to be a solid contributor in order for the Bulls to be successful.
Lowering the bar
Since the theory is that this collection of talent allows Rose to be more of a facilitator than a scorer, how the Bulls fare when he is doing well at setting up his teammates should be examined. Let’s round up his current assists average from 4.9 to five and examine the results whenever he hits or exceeds that mark.
Using the statistics filter on NBA.com, it can be established that Rose has had 25 games where he’s dished out five or more assists. Crosschecking the dates of those contests with the team’s game log shows that Chicago has a 17-8 record when that happens—68 percent of games won. It gets more interesting from there when scoring is taken into consideration.
Rose broke the double-digit threshold for points scored in 22 of those 25 contests, and 16 of those were victories. Going even deeper, he registered between 10-19 points in 13 of those games, with nine also playing out in his team’s favor. These numbers suggest that if Rose scores just a moderate amount of points (for him, at least) and does a decent job setting up his teammates, the chances of winning are very favorable.
Maybe there is something to the notion that this team is less reliant on their former MVP. Will that hold up with the limits on his court time?
Rose was on a playing restriction when the 2014-15 NBA season started. His playing time was capped between 30-34 minutes. He stumbled somewhat coming out of the gate but began stringing some solid games together starting in December despite the confinement.
Another prohibition is in place now that he has returned from rehabbing, and the ceiling has been lowered to 20 minutes per game, according to Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com. That number will probably increase in the playoffs. A reasonable guess for postseason minutes would probably be between 25-35 minutes per game.
Reexamining that aforementioned bloc of listed games where Rose recorded five or more assists, he logged 34 minutes or fewer in 18 of those matchups; that’s more than one-third of the total number games he’s played this year.
Having Rose on the floor and giving a solid effort is still the best-case scenario for Chicago going forward. It’s a testament to how well this team is built and a shot across the bow for the other Eastern Conference contenders.
Why less is more
It’s easy to dismiss this team as disappointing considering they may not break the 50-win barrier with arguably their best collection of talent since the Thibodeau era began. But let’s not discount the fact that he has only had his intended starting lineup 20 times this season. In addition to not having Rose for six weeks, the team also had to do without Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler for several weeks as well.
The difference here is that this team is walking, not limping, into the playoffs.
All of the data shows that the Bulls can be hard to beat with Rose playing, even if he isn’t manhandling the competition by himself. When he is having solid performances, Aaron Brooks can continue to be used in his intended capacity of being an offensive spark off the bench. Kirk Hinrich and E’Twaun Moore won’t have to pull as much weight and might actually be better contributors in smaller doses.
Rose always commands attention when he is on the floor. He will be able to exploit that by keeping opponents on their heels as they try to guess if he is going to create for a teammate or himself.
Even if he is having a bad performance, he still has to be accounted for when the Bulls have the ball. Couple that with the underlying threat that he could explode for a big game on a night’s notice, and it becomes apparent that the Bulls are going to be a tough draw.
Things are going to be different for the other playoff teams of the East. Rose is now just an option as opposed to being the option. Opponents are going to have to choose between buckling down on the 26-year-old Chicago native and allowing Butler or Gasol to run amok. They must either dare Rose to have a big night and lose on that gamble, or try the even distribution approach and hope there is enough stopping power to limit the Bulls.
This is a good spot for Rose to be in. His return to MVP form may take just as long as his absence, so being able to play in meaningful games and have an influence on the outcome without the old burden must be relieving.
It is one thing to shoulder the load, it is another thing to help carry it. Rose is now an element of the team that is greater than the sum of its parts.
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