A Realistic Figure for Liverpool to Sanction the Sale of Raheem Sterling

When Brendan Rodgers revealed that Raheem Sterling's contract negotiations had been put on hold until the summer, it was probably hoped that it would put an end to such talk for the rest of the season.

The opposite has happened.

Ever since Rodgers revealed that talks had been postponed at the request of Sterling's representatives, per Dominic King of the Daily Mail, Sterling has dominated the headlines. Every press conference thereafter has seen questions fielded about the youngster and his future.

Of course, this has been aided by the ill-advised, unauthorised interview with BBC Sport on the eve of the recent Arsenal match.

"

Sterling will serve as a useful case study in how not to manage reputations, & converting tactical strength/leverage into PR blunder.

— Dave Phillips (@lovefutebol) April 2, 2015"

Sterling's advisors have certainly ensured their client has been in the news, which can be good or bad depending on your viewpoint. His PR is certainly damaged, though, and supporters are growing frustrated by the stand off, evidenced by the heckling the 20-year-old received as he unveiled the Reds' new kit on Friday.

Rui Vieira/Associated Press

That's because the simplistic supporter view is that if Sterling wants to prove he isn't a money-grabber, as he claimed in that interview, he should simply accept Liverpool's contract offer and sign the new deal. Turning down a reported £100,000 per week while insisting it's not about the money is a difficult one for the man on the street to believe.

The summer could see the Sterling saga become a repeat of the Luis Suarez situation of 2013, when the Uruguayan went public on his desire to leave the club but Liverpool refused to sanction a move.

Asked about the possibility of Sterling being sold this summer Rodgers told reporters:

"I do not see it. No. Ultimately, I cannot speak for the owners but I have a good idea of what they would do. I know them well enough from my time here and for me it would not happen."

But should the club and player fail to agree a new deal, Liverpool know that their hand would be weakened the following summer, when his contract would then have just a year remaining (expiring in summer 2017).

"Whether Liverpool’s resolve would weaken in receipt of a £50m offer remains to be seen," writes the Guardian's Andy Hunter.

That £50 million figure is one that is often mentioned in media circles when theorising a potential transfer fee for the attacker. Does that represent a realistic figure the club would accept for the player?

Value

Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

Economist Dan Altman, writing in The New Yorker, attempted to calculate how much Sterling is worth to Liverpool, concluding that the reported £100,000 per week offer was "close to fair value, at least for Liverpool."

However, Altman didn't discuss a figure that would represent value for Liverpool to sanction the sale of their talented forward.

Somebody who does take to task the proposed £50 million transfer fee is the Guardian's Barney Ronay. He questions whether "a series of promising moments" can "lead to some apparently serious talk of a £50m transfer fee."

Ronay writes:

"

Can anybody say with any certainty that Sterling is better than Mateo Kovacic, Hakan Calhanoglu, Memphis Depay, Paulo Dybala, Alen Halilovic, Davy Klaassen, Nikola Ninkovic or JeseRodríguez? Is he a better prospect than Martin Odegaard, Real Madrid’s performing teenager? Is he actually better than Alex Oxlade‑Chamberlain, Ross Barkley, and Harry Kane? Maybe he is right now. Maybe not next month. It is a meaningless, unanswerable question, an argument about possibility and potential, and a crown that can only really be awarded in retrospect.

"

It's a fair question. Development cannot be guaranteed. English football is full of examples of players failing to fulfil their perceived potential. Whether that's due to the players themselves or the initial perception being wrong is another question.

Nobody can predict the future. There's a chance that £20 million signing Lazar Markovic could find his feet in the Premier League next season and comfortably replace Sterling in the Liverpool side. We wouldn't know that until it happens.

Clearly, though, Liverpool are better off with Sterling than without him. This season, one which he began as a teenager, has shown his worth in many ways.

Rodgers turned to Sterling in December, shortly after his 20th birthday, to solve the striker problem at the club, having lost faith in the trio of Mario Balotelli, Rickie Lambert and Fabio Borini—all players we can comfortably assume are on a higher wage than Sterling but who are far less valuable to Liverpool FC, both in economic and footballing terms.

Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

Add in that Sterling was named European Golden Boy in December, and you can see why he holds a strong hand in this game of poker between club and player. The last three winners of that award were Paul Pogba, Isco and Mario Gotze. Previous winners include Wayne Rooney, Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero.

It's perhaps those two factors that explain why Sterling says he would have signed a new deal last summer had one been offered—before he was handed such a key role and awarded this accolade.

Note, another winner of the Golden Boy award is former Manchester United midfielder Anderson, proving that development can't be guaranteed or predicted. Mario Balotelli makes the list too.

Sale

So what would it take for Liverpool to sanction a sale?

Given the stance of principal owner John W. Henry when Arsenal attempted to sign Suarez for the infamous £40 million plus a pound, you wouldn't expect him to allow Sterling to leave unless the situation suited the club.

Suarez signed a new deal seven months before he eventually left for Barcelona, but that new deal ensured Liverpool got the best value for their asset. A similar situation could materialise with Sterling; the player could sign a new deal before Liverpool sell him for a high price the following summer—perhaps depending on where the club are then at (Champions League or not).

Should Sterling's representatives make it clear that their client won't sign a new deal under any circumstances, then perhaps Liverpool would be better to cash in this summer and remove the distraction of contract talk, getting a higher price now than they would when he has just a year remaining on his contract.

That aforementioned £50 million figure is one that springs to mind, but the question is whether any club would be willing to pay that amount. After all, a player is only worth what a club are willing to pay.