Cesc Fabregas or Nemanja Matic: Whose Suspension Would Hurt Chelsea Most?
Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic may well be one booking away from a two-game suspension, but Jose Mourinho has the look of a man nonplussed by it all.
Indeed, if anything, the journalists gathered at Chelsea's Cobham training were the ones sweating over the Chelsea midfielders ahead of this weekend’s visit to London rivals QPR.
If either Matic or Fabregas is cautioned in that outing, he will pick up his 10th yellow card of the season and miss the crunch games against Manchester United and Arsenal as a result.
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The cut-off point for the season is Sunday, too, when the Premier League wipes its slate clean for the remainder of the season, meaning Matic and Fabregas will have their tallies restored to zero.
That doesn’t matter to Mourinho, however. The Chelsea boss is sticking true to the one-game-as-it-comes cliché, explaining both will start at Loftus Road regardless of their yellow-card situation.
“It’s always the same, we don’t want bookings,” he explained, attempting to take the focus away from the fate that could await his players.
“We try to play the same way, we want to play football.
“[…] The game is a three points game. We need points, we need victories. It doesn’t make sense to think about some matches and not others.
“We need to win every game. We don’t think about the points we have and the game in hand [against Leicester City].”
Mourinho took a risk last week when he fielded Diego Costa at half-time against Stoke City.
Chelsea won the game 2-1, but within 10 minutes of his introduction, their leading goalscorer was hobbling off back down the tunnel with a hamstring injury that could rule him out until early May.
It’s why it seems natural to guard against further absences when Chelsea have other fixtures that potentially have more significance in the title race.
Facing QPR in a London derby is always going to be a feisty affair. With Rangers fighting against relegation, it ups the ante even more.
“People tell me it will be hostile [at Loftus Road],” Mourinho continued. “But we go to play, we go to win.
“The people in the stands can play a role, but they can’t score goals.”
With Matic and Fabregas confirmed starters, Mourinho will be hoping they can’t issue yellow cards either.
It’s a Catch-22 for Chelsea. They want to beat QPR, and to do that, it's logical they should field their best team, regardless of the risks involved.
If either player is suspended for those games against United and Arsenal, though, Mourinho's team will be severely weakened.
Matic is the first line of the defensive wall that protects Thibaut Courtois’ goal, while Fabregas is the player who gets Chelsea on the move, helping them to control games with his ability to retain possession and pick out team-mates.
The Spaniard hasn’t been playing at the same level we saw early in the campaign, yet without him, Chelsea seem to lack the creativity to outmanoeuvre opponents in the middle of the park.
They look one dimensional—a throwback to the side that surrendered any hopes of Premier League glory last season with some shock results against lesser teams due to their stiff approach.
What Fabregas’ presence in 2014/15 has ensured now is that a similar dip in form hasn’t meant another title slipping away.
Chelsea have been so dominant, they have enough of a cushion to avoid panic right now.
Arsenal’s winning form is always going to be at their back of their minds, yet equally will be that seven-point gap and the extra game to come against Leicester.
Chelsea's position is a commanding one.
Closing in on a title, there will always be pressure, although what Mourinho’s players are feeling right now is far removed from Manchester City and Liverpool’s predicament this time last year.
Chelsea haven’t got to play teams off the park to win the title. They just need to have enough fight in them to grind out the points that make it mathematically impossible for the rest to catch them.
As Mourinho says himself, it’s points Chelsea need. Anything else—performances, grandstanding and the like—is irrelevant.
It’s why Matic is their most important player in that midfield area right now.
If Fabregas is suspended, there are players who can replace him on a temporary basis. Ramires is capable of filling in for two games, as is Oscar to a lesser degree.
In fact, playing deeper could even bring the best out of the Brazilian who has been ineffective in that coveted No. 10 role since Christmas.
Take Matic out of this Chelsea team, and where does it leave them?
Without muscle in an area where they need it most.
The replacements are lightweight.
Even when match fit, John Obi Mikel is a weakness in this Chelsea squad. The Nigerian hasn’t played a game since early February after having surgery, so it would be a big ask to expect him to enter the fray and be anywhere near the required level.
Ramires again would be an option, but he always functions best when complementing a defensive player in the pivot, not solely taking on that responsibility.
Besides, it’s not his game, either.
As happened against Newcastle United in December, a Chelsea midfield without Matic can be over-run.
They lack any real substance or shape and teams know they can get at them. Mourinho’s teams are rarely bullied, and without Matic, they lose one of those players capable of enforcing dominance.
That’s what’s required now. We’re in the final stretch of the season.
Fabregas did what was required of him when Chelsea created their lead at their top. The focus now is on defending it, and for all the quality he brings, Chelsea would be better off without him if it came to choose between the Spaniard and Matic.
When you're in a fight, muscle often overcomes grace.
Interestingly, Mourinho signed the likes of Fabregas, Matic and Costa to win them titles. The trio have been a big part of how far this team has changed from the one the Chelsea manager inherited.
Now that the climax of 2014/15 is drawing ever closer, he could face the possibility of not having any of them when it matters most.
Matic or Fabregas? We know the answer to that conundrum—Mourinho will take both, but he may not have his way come the final whistle at Loftus Road on Sunday.
Garry Hayes is Bleacher Report's lead Chelsea correspondent. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @garryhayes
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