Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Buccaneers' Top 3 Picks
With the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a limitless array of possibilities on how to use it. That isn't necessarily a good thing.
There are several reasons why the Bucs own the first pick, not least of which is the void at quarterback. If the Bucs have one mission in this draft, it is to find a passer who can become their franchise player on offense.
This goal is complicated by the litany of the Bucs' other roster needs. Their offensive line is a mess, they lack proven defensive ends, and depth is a problem across the roster.
These other needs are secondary to taking a quarterback who can lead the offense. The worst thing the Bucs can do is trade down and take a less talented quarterback to address as many roster holes as possible.
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios the Bucs face on draft day this year.
Round 1 Best Case: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota
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The Bucs are in the best position in years to find a franchise quarterback. They must follow through.
The rumor mill is running on overdrive, spinning a carousel of speculation as to who the Bucs will take first overall.
NFL Network's Mike Mayock ranked Mariota ahead of Winston, and ESPN's Ron Jaworski told CSN Philly Sports Talk that Mariota is the Bucs' pick per "sources."
Jaws' claims immediately came under attack. Fox Sports' Peter Schrager said Winston is still the Bucs' guy. CBS Sports' Pete Prisco cited no sources but also insists the Bucs are taking Winston.
Media frenzy aside, who the Bucs take almost doesn't matter. The Buccaneers need a talented quarterback, period.
Neither Winston nor Mariota is a perfect prospect. Despite his apparent NFL readiness on the field, Winston may not be ready to be a franchise quarterback off it.
He's not the perfect on-field prospect either. He has glaring mechanical problems and needs some maturation with his decision-making both on and off the field.
That said, Winston is a step ahead of Mariota in both pocket awareness and anticipation in his throws. Between the two, Winston is much more ready to start in the NFL.
Mariota will experience a learning curve coming from a spread offense, but his talent is undeniable.
His athleticism will help compensate for his initial discomfort in a pro-style system, and he can make every throw in an NFL offense. He doesn't have Winston's swagger, but he also doesn't have any of the off-field concerns.
Neither quarterback is a sure thing, but that's the nature of the NFL draft. If the Bucs can be trusted to do the right thing and take a quarterback, they can be trusted to decide which quarterback is the right fit in Tampa Bay.
Round 1 Worst Case: Leonard Williams
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Leonard Williams is by no means a bad player. He's just the worst pick the Bucs could make with their first pick.
The odds of the Bucs selecting anyone but a quarterback with the first overall pick are virtually nil. The only way they take someone other than a passer is if they trade the first overall pick.
A trade down is as bad a decision as the Bucs could make in the first round. Much of their offensive woes last season stemmed from uncertainty and a lack of talent at the quarterback position. With only Mike Glennon on the roster, they have to maximize their opportunity to upgrade.
To be fair, the Bucs need edge rush and offensive line help almost as badly as they need a quarterback. What they don't need is another interior defensive lineman.
With Gerald McCoy, Clinton McDonald, Akeem Spence and former Cowboy Henry Melton, defensive tackle is the Bucs' deepest position. Taking Williams would be a waste of a high first-round pick for Tampa Bay.
Round 2 Best Case: T.J. Clemmings
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If T.J. Clemmings falls to the Bucs in the second round, their new quarterback should jump for joy.
This year's draft is loaded with talented offensive linemen. It's possible the Bucs will end up with a first-round-caliber tackle with their second-round pick.
The Pitt tackle is one of the more athletic offensive linemen in this year's class. Like left tackle Demar Dotson, Clemmings was also a sought-after basketball player.
The Bucs desperately need to bolster the offensive line, particularly the right side. Though it's a long shot that Clemmings falls to the Bucs in the second round, he represents the best candidate to plug in as the new starting right tackle.
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Round 2 Worst Case: Bryce Petty
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If the Bucs take Bryce Petty in the second round, it means they already screwed up their 2015 draft.
There's no reason to take a quarterback in the second round unless the Bucs pass on one in the first, which is obviously the worst-case scenario.
Among the rumors that the Bucs are looking at Mariota is a report by former Bucs employee Joe Bussell, otherwise known as NFLosophy on Twitter, that the Bucs are looking to trade down:
"The Bucs plan on drafting Marcus Mariota if they can't find a suitable option to trade down.
— NFL Philosophy (@NFLosophy) April 13, 2015"
Trading down and taking a far less talented quarterback may help fill more roster holes, but it fails to address the biggest one. Petty simply isn't as good as Winston or even Mariota.
Round 3 Best Case: Preston Smith
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This year's draft isn't stocked with many quality 4-3 defensive ends, but there are potential values in the third round. The Bucs could invest their third-round pick in Mississippi State's Preston Smith.
Smith was one of Mississippi State's best defensive linemen over the past few years, recording 16 career sacks and 27 career tackles for a loss. Though not especially quick, he plays with excellent leverage and agility to slip through offensive lines.
The Bucs addressed some of their defensive end issues already, trading for Detroit DE George Johnson, per The Tampa Tribune's Roy Cummings. Johnson brings proven pass-rush skills but has never started in the NFL, so the Bucs need to hedge their bets with a solid draft pick.
It's possible Smith doesn't even make it out of the second round considering how few good 4-3 defensive ends there are in this year's draft. Ideally, the Bucs won't trade up for him, but they may have to move up a few picks to lock him up.
Round 3 Worst Case: Gerod Holliman
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Safety is yet another need for the Bucs, but the worst thing they could do is select Louisville safety Gerod Holliman within the first two days of the draft.
The Bucs already made several big moves to address their safety deficiencies this offseason. They re-signed Major Wright, signed former Chicago Bear Chris Conte and traded Dashon Goldson to Washington.
Despite shoring up the depth, the Bucs may be still look to find a safety in the draft. Unfortunately, this is a really bad year to draft one in the early rounds.
One safety the Bucs are considering is Holliman, whom they brought in for a visit this week, per Sports Talk Florida's Jenna Laine. The 2014 Jim Thorpe Award winner recorded an NCAA record-tying 14 interceptions last season.
Holliman's interception total masks major deficiencies in his game. He is an atrocious tackler and takes entirely too many risks to force turnovers.
Holliman could become a ball-hawking NFL safety, but he's a project. The Bucs would be better off taking a project defensive end or offensive playmaker in the third round.
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