NBA Draft 2015: Assessing Scouting Reports on Stars from Experts' Mock Drafts
If the NBA draft experts' opinions prove to hold weight, the Kentucky Wildcats' Karl-Anthony Towns has overtaken the Duke Blue Devils' Jahlil Okafor as the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft.
DraftExpress, ESPN.com's Chad Ford and Aran Smith of NBADraft.net all see Towns as the top overall prospect.
"Okafor was considered a strong favorite to be the top pick by scouts and pundits for much of the season," Smith wrote. "He struggled in the final month and in particular in the tournament. He's still considered a possibility to go first, and whoever lands the top pick will have a real dilemma on their hands."
Early in the season, it seemed impossible to fathom anything loosening Okafor's grip on his status as top overall prospect. However, Towns' versatility and ability to shine through on an incredibly deep Kentucky team have seemingly won over most draft prognosticators.
In just 21.1 minutes per game, Towns averaged 10.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Okafor scored 17.3 points and pulled down 8.5 rebounds per game while playing 30.1 minutes per contest for the national champions.
It's going to be a close call either way. Towns has higher potential because he's a slightly better athlete and a far superior free-throw shooter and passer, but Okafor might be more prepared to contribute offensively immediately.
We may not truly know which player the team with the top pick is favoring until draft day. It should be noted that neither Okafor nor Towns has officially declared as of Wednesday evening, but there is reportedly a press conference planned for Kentucky players to announce their draft intentions on Thursday, per Shams Charania of RealGM.
It would be a shock if Towns doesn't make it official then. Likewise, it would be a major surprise if Okafor doesn't declare as well.
The Guard Debate
Just below the two big men competing for the top spot is an intriguing debate over the top guard available in the draft. There's no consensus on who's the better prospect between Emmanuel Mudiay from the Congo and the Ohio State Buckeyes' D'Angelo Russell.
Mudiay spent his high school career in two Texas-area schools. He had committed to attend and play for the SMU Mustangs this past season, but because of financial hardships, Mudiay skipped college and played professionally in China.
Before the age-limit rule changed in the NBA, Mudiay would have likely made the jump to the NBA straight out of high school. In China, Mudiay showed off his promise by averaging 18 points, 6.25 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 12 games off the bench for Guangdong Foshan.
There's an element of mystery surrounding Mudiay, but DraftExpress and Ford have seen enough to consider the 6'5" point guard superior to Russell. Ford wrote:
"Mudiay's China experience is over. He's back in Dallas and beginning to prep for the draft. He likely won't work out anywhere until the draft lottery is decided in mid-May and even then it probably will be with only three or four teams. Several teams that will likely pick early, such as the [New York] Knicks and [Philadelphia] Sixers, have him ranked very high on their boards. Unless his workouts are awful, his draft range is very solidly No. 2 to 4.
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When you watch Mudiay play, it's clear he is an elite athlete. He can get to the rim almost at will, and he's physically strong with next-level bounce.
That said, Mudiay struggles with his outside shot. He made 34 percent of his threes in China but proved to be streaky. He was a mess from the free-throw line at only 57 percent. That's obviously concerning for a player with a skill set that should send him to the line regularly.
In contrast, Russell is a dynamic shooter who doesn't possess freakish athleticism. He made 41.1 percent of his threes as a freshman for the Buckeyes this past season. Don't take that to mean Russell doesn't have the ability to take the ball to the rim. He has excellent handles and is adept at creating space off the dribble for his jump shot and getting by defenders.
At just 175 pounds, Russell needs to add strength, but he is an excellent rebounder and passer who seems to have the ability to play either guard spot at 6'5".
Again, this could be seen as a dilemma: potential vs. immediate impact. Mudiay's upside is higher because of his athleticism, but Russell showed and proved on a larger stage by averaging 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and five assists per game in one of college basketball's toughest conferences.
The final decision may come down to which team is holding the third pick. If it's a team desperately in need of a point guard and not a 2-guard, then Mudiay would likely be the pick. If the team simply needs a perimeter scorer, Russell would make more sense.
In either case, it seems the top four picks of the draft should render positive results for the teams fortunate enough to secure those spots.
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