Masters Predictions 2015: Projections for Best Picks of Thursday's Augusta Field
Golf is a tricky sport. Even the best players on the planet can struggle to find consistency.
Picking an outright winner for tournaments is difficult, due in part to how deep fields are in modern golf. The task is doubly challenging in major championships, where the pressure couldn't be greater.
The 2015 Masters Tournament tees off Thursday at Augusta National Golf Club, and who will emerge with the green jacket is anyone's guess.
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Four-time winner Tiger Woods is making his first start since early February, but he isn't among the odds-on favorites. The top three, according to Odds Shark, are Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and defending champion Bubba Watson.
Read on for analysis and predictions of Augusta's purported Big Three will do in Thursday's opening round.
Rory McIlroy (6-1)
The oddsmakers who list McIlroy as the No. 1 favorite reflect the longing golf fans have for an individual to come forward and dominate the way Woods once did.
McIlroy is the closest thing to Woods at the moment, with four majors already under his belt and a shot to cap off the career Grand Slam at Augusta National. One blowup round per year has been McIlroy's Masters trend, and he didn't score well on par fives in 2014, when he tied for eighth.
PGATour.com's Sean Martin referenced the area of McIlroy's game that always leaves room for doubt:
In the 2011 event, golf's brightest young star had a four-stroke lead through 54 holes, so McIlroy has shown the ability to sustain strong play and putting at the Masters. The key is to do it now and get that Masters monkey off his back quickly.
This microwave era of instant gratification runs contrary to the reality and gravity of what McIlroy will accomplish if and when he does slip on the green jacket. Only six men have ever captured all four majors, and McIlroy will have plenty of opportunities beyond this week to get it done.
If it's possible, McIlroy's profile has gone down a bit in light of the buzz Watson generates as a horse for the course, how well Spieth has played and Woods' return to competition. Maybe that will be enough for McIlroy to relax and claim victory.
Since he's had just a 52.54 percent success rate in scrambling this season, many of McIlroy's hopes will hang on his ball-striking. The first round has been McIlroy's highest on tour this year, averaging 72 strokes.
Go ahead and mark McIlroy down for one better than that number, which should have him within four or five strokes of the 18-hole lead.
Projected Round 1 score: one-under 71
Jordan Spieth (8-1)
Playing in the final pairing last year didn't faze Spieth, and he took a two-stroke lead to the par-five eighth hole before fading a bit to lose out to Watson in the end.
Spieth has been on a tear as of late, though, showing rare consistency for a 21-year-old and rising to No. 4 in the world rankings.
ESPN Stats & Info illustrates just how dominant Spieth has been:
Clutch putting is something that has stood out in Spieth's game. In last week's Shell Houston Open, Spieth needed to drain a putt from over 10 feet to make the playoff and buried it with plenty of pace, right in the heart of the hole.
A bomb of a birdie fell for Spieth when he won the Valspar Championship in extra holes. He also pushed FedEx Cup points leader Jimmy Walker at the Valero Texas Open with a flurry of birdies on the back nine, only to see Walker hang on for the victory.
Despite not possessing the prodigious length McIlroy does off the tee, the knack for draining key putts seems to be in Spieth's DNA. Fitness is something McIlroy has used to aid his distance, which Spieth has years to do if he chooses.
Based on how hard it is to maintain such an elite level of play, one might count Spieth out, believing he's due for a down week. Yours truly won't be among them. With his recent form, Spieth will at least start out among the Masters leaders—and he'll probably stay there through Sunday.
Projected Round 1 score: four-under 68
Bubba Watson (11-1)
Slipping on the green jacket two of the past three years has to make Watson among the favorites—arguably the top one.
At a Tuesday press conference, McIlroy was asked who the man to beat ought to be, via Golf Channel's Jay Coffin:
Watson garners respect for his unconventional game and the sheer power he has to dominate when he's clicking.
The left-handed long hitter's patented, sweeping fade plays right into Augusta National's layout. Watson's all-feel short game is ideal for the legendary, severe Masters putting surfaces. His unique imagination and shot-making ability are second to almost no one, and they are especially effective on a course that suits his eye.
Augusta happens to cater to "Bubba golf," the uncompromising approach Watson takes to the links. He'll cut the corner off longer holes and feel and will his way to a lower score than most.
This may irk some of Watson's fellow competitors. According to an ESPN poll, he's the one golfer other tour players would be least likely to help if he were in a fight in a parking lot. Watson decided to spin something negative into a positive, though, via Golf Digest's Alex Myers:
Such an outlook shows Watson is focused purely on golf. That's enough to worry about, and it's hard not to appreciate how he can work the ball both ways when modern technology tries to eliminate bending shots.
As he prepares to start his green jacket defense, Watson enters with top-10 finishes in four of his five starts this season and plenty of rest, having not played since finishing third in the WGC-Cadillac Championship.
Few golfers have played better throughout the 2014-15 season than Watson has. He is 12th in first-round scoring average, so it's reasonable to expect a first round in the 60s based on his strong history and form this year to date.
Projected Round 1 score: three-under 69
Note: Stats courtesy of PGATour.com unless otherwise indicated.
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