Who Are the Experts Predicting to Jets in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft?
With the 2015 NFL draft less than a month away, the experts have already come forth to state their opinion on whom the New York Jets should select in the first round.
Whoever it is, he'll probably be booed. It's not personal; it's just tradition.
The one problem with NFL draft analysis is that a lot of it becomes groupthink, and by the end of the draft season, everyone is saying the same thing. That's what's happening with the Jets, who are widely projected to take Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota with the No. 6 overall pick.
That being said, Mariota isn't the only prospect who's being projected to the Jets in mock drafts. So, let's take a look around the Internet and see who else could wind up with Gang Green this year.
Rob Rang, CBS Sports: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
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Rang's Take
"The trade for Brandon Marshall gives the Jets a legitimate No. 1 receiver but Geno Smith has yet to prove that he is a franchise quarterback. With nothing tying them to Smith, new GM Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles could see Mariota as the ideal quarterback to develop in offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's scheme.
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My Slant
If Marcus Mariota is still on the board at No. 6 overall, the Jets have to pull the trigger. Their search for a franchise quarterback has spanned nearly 40 years since Joe Namath last suited up for Gang Green in 1976. It's time to bring that search to an end.
That being said, Rang considers Mariota to be overly reliant on his first read, as a result of Oregon's quarterback-friendly system that simplifies the decision-making process for passers. The Jets would need to be aware that they are drafting Mariota for his skill set and potential, not for his pro-ready style of play.
That's not to say he couldn't reach that level at some point, but it's something to keep in mind, as the No. 6 pick would often be expected to produce immediate results.
Dane Brugler, CBS Sports: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
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Brugler's Take
"The wild card of the 2015 NFL Draft: who will draft Mariota? He could easily be gone in the top five, but if still on the board for the Jets at No. 6, it makes a lot of sense for New York to pull the trigger and land the Jets' quarterback of the future.
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My Slant
The key word in Brugler's analysis is "future." As mentioned in the previous slide, the Jets would need to be aware that Mariota is more viable down the line than he will be in Year 1.
That being said, everything about Mariota screams new-wave quarterback with off-the-charts athleticism. He's 6'4", weighs 222 pounds and finished in the top five among quarterbacks in every workout at the scouting combine: a 4.52-second 40-yard dash, 36" vertical jump, 10'1" broad jump, 6.87-second three-cone drill and 4.11-second 20-yard shuttle.
His gaudy numbers at Oregon (68.3 percent completions, 42 touchdowns, four interceptions in 2014) are seen as a product of the Ducks' quarterback-friendly offense, but if one offensive coordinator knows how to make an offense as quarterback-friendly as possible, it's Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. This should be a perfect fit.
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Bucky Brooks, NFL.com: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
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Brooks' Take
"The Jets desperately need a dominant pass-rusher to make Todd Bowles' aggressive system go. Ray is a gritty edge player with a nonstop motor and impressive first-step quickness."
My Slant
Oh boy. The only thing scarier than the Jets defense with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie at cornerback is if there's a pass-rushing beast off the edge to help disrupt quarterbacks in the pocket.
That's exactly what the Jets would be getting if they were to use their first-round pick on Missouri defensive end Shane Ray. He's a bit undersized at 6'3" and 245 pounds, but he's an explosive athlete who can beat blockers to the edge and get into the backfield, as evidenced by his 22.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks as a junior.
What he lacks in size, he makes up in motor, where relentless pursuit is the name of his game. He's not going to get any longer, but Todd Bowles would have a field day finding ways to exploit Ray's strengths in the 3-4 defensive front.
Lance Zierlein, NFL.com: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
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Zierlein's Take
"The Jets might have to be absolutely sold on Mariota to take him here. Instead, let's create a monster by giving the Jets another toy for Todd Bowles to play with."
My Slant
Groupthink sometimes reigns supreme during draft season, and it seems that's exactly what we have on our hands here. Both CBS Sports analysts predicted Mariota to be the Jets pick, and both NFL.com analysts have made Shane Ray their choice.
There's no denying that Ray has the skill set to play on the end of a 3-4 defense, although he's not yet been tested as a coverage defender in space. There is some concern, however, that he's not the right size for the position and that he could be engulfed by larger offensive tackles.
The Jets have some dominant defensive linemen who can help Ray keep himself clean of any blockers. That would allow him to make full use of that explosive first step to get into the backfield before offensive linemen can do anything about it.
Todd McShay, ESPN: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6 of 7McShay's Take
"I don't think the recent news of his positive marijuana test is going to affect his stock all that much. He'd had positive tests in college, so it was already a known issue with him, and he's the top pure edge rusher in this class. His lean frame and inability to put on and/or keep weight is a concern, but he's a terror coming off the edge with his explosive first-step quickness and length, and he's stronger than you'd expect for someone his size.
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My Slant
"Risky" does not begin to describe Randy Gregory as the No. 6 overall pick.
McShay reports that Gregory's issues with marijuana were well-known before his positive test at the NFL Scouting Combine. While he was open and honest with NFL teams about the issue, as he told Kimberly Jones of NFL.com, it doesn't change the fact that he'll be in Stage 1 of the NFL's drug program right out of the blocks.
He's an absolute monster off the edge, if a little lean at 6'5" and 235 pounds, but he has 34" arms to help him keep blockers at bay. After he showed off his explosiveness at the scouting combine (4.64 second 40-yard dash, 10'5" broad jump), coaches will be salivating over the possibility of his hitting his ceiling.
Mel Kiper Jr.: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7 of 7Kiper's Take
"I do think Mariota has been fantastic during the process, with very good workouts and spectacular interviews at the NFL combine, and I think he's been able to assuage some fears that he was merely a system-keeper at Oregon. You can question whether he's ready to help a team win games in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits.
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My Slant
As Kiper says, the Jets are really no closer to knowing who their long-term quarterback is than they were when they handed in the selection card for Geno Smith on Day 2 of the 2013 NFL draft. Questions around Mariota's NFL readiness notwithstanding, the Jets have no better alternative than to draft Oregon's quarterback.
This is a different scenario from when the Jets took Mark Sanchez at the No. 5 pick in 2009, because the Jets have both Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick available to start in 2015. When Mariota is ready, he can assume the mantle as the starting quarterback.
Unless otherwise noted, all scouting combine information provided by NFL.com.
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