
NCAA Championship Game 2015: Game Odds, Final Predictions for Duke vs. Wisconsin
The national championship game won't feature a team looking to make history, but fans will still be treated to an excellent battle between two elite teams trying to bring home a title.
Wisconsin surprised many by handing Kentucky its first loss of the season in the Final Four, ending the Wildcats' run at 38-0. The Badgers will now try to keep the momentum going with one more victory against Duke, which had an easier time in the semifinals with a 20-point win over Michigan State.
Each side has the talent on the floor and coaching on the sidelines to be a deserving champion, but only one will raise the trophy at the end of the day. The question is which team will do what it takes to leave with the victory.
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Report: Biggest Spenders in Men's CBB 🤑
What: National Championship Game
When: Monday, April 6
Time: 9:18 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Watch: CBS
Odds (via Odds Shark):
- Spread: Wisconsin (-1)
- Over/Under: 140
Prediction
While Duke's defense was a question mark for much of the season, it now appears to be a strength of the team as the squad has really improved on that side of the ball. Instead of a schematic change, it seems as though the players are just working harder and making better rotations to make things tough for opponents.
After being involved in high-scoring battles all year long, the Blue Devils have held opponents to just 55 points per game in the NCAA tournament.
ESPN's Mike Greenberg gave his impression on the team's play during the blowout win over Michigan State:
However, Wisconsin showed it can be successful against historically great defenses in wins over Kentucky and Arizona. Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports broke down the numbers early on in the semifinal win:
"Seriously. Wisconsin has had 1.62 PPP in its past THIRTY minutes of basketball against two top-five KenPom defenses all-time. SO absurd.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) April 5, 2015"
The Badgers ended up scoring 1.22 points per possession against Kentucky, which is by far the best offensive performance of the year against the Wildcats, according to KenPom.com. With their ability to spread the floor and make shots from anywhere, they can have similar success against Duke.
Considering Frank Kaminsky finished with 20 points and 11 rebounds against Karl-Anthony Towns, he should have even more success against a worse defender in Jahlil Okafor. Sam Dekker could also continue his recent hot streak against Justise Winslow after succeeding against Willie Cauley-Stein.
Duke should have success offensively as well, but Okafor has struggled throughout this tournament against bigger opponents like Utah's Jakob Poeltl. Kaminsky is not an elite defender, but he should be able to prevent a huge game from the freshman sensation.
Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski gave a lot of praise to Wisconsin after learning it would be his upcoming opponent, per Sports Illustrated's Brian Hamilton:
The recent win over Kentucky wasn't a fluke, but was instead proof of how talented the Badgers are this season. Even though Duke was able to earn a win in Madison earlier in the season, Wisconsin should be able to avenge this loss as well and secure the national championship.
Prediction: Wisconsin 67, Duke 64
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