Duke vs. Wisconsin: Predictions for X-Factors Who Will Swing NCAA Championship

Role players don't win championships. We can pretend the Steve Kerrs and Robert Horrys matter as much as the Michael Jordans and Shaquille O'Neals, but reality tells a far different story.

That reality stretches to the college game, where we've seen stars for Duke and Wisconsin thrive in their run to Monday's championship game. Justise Winslow dropped 19 points to lead Duke over Michigan State, and Frank Kaminsky has helped spur Wisconsin's run all season.

But role players truly matter when the superstars begin canceling themselves out. The Winslows and Kaminskys can battle back and forth for 39 minutes. Take away the likes of Tyus Jones and Nigel Hayes, though, and they're both probably sitting at home watching one of their previous opponents play in Indianapolis. Stars make championship pushes; role players act as the tiebreakers.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the players most likely to have themselves a Kerr/Horry moment in this year's title game.

Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

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It's probably unfair to put Jones on this list. In fact, it's probably unfair to put any Duke rotation player on this list. Coach K's rotation has essentially dwindled to eight players, only six of whom are guaranteed double-digit minutes Monday night. Grayson Allen and Marshall Plumlee are in danger of being excised altogether, depending on the situation.

Hence potential first-round picks wind up in the X-factor jar. Jones has emerged all season as one of the most impressive lead ball-handlers in the country. His ascent has helped push Quinn Cook to a more natural role as a shooting guard, and Coach K's willingness to trust him in crunch time speaks to his development.

"Tyus never gets rattled. Never gets shook. Never gets too excited. Too high. Too low," his mother, Debbie, told Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore. "He just knows when and how to step up and make it happen. If a bucket is needed or a big play is needed, he just finds a way. He's been doing that at every level." 

Jones is set to go head-to-head with his biggest defensive test yet. The Badgers have done an excellent job at limiting opposing point guards all season, using their length to disrupt driving and passing lanes. With the margin for error being so low, how Jones handles the defensive pressure could be a huge swing factor in a close contest.

Plus, as a 37.2 percent shooter from deep, it's not out of the question to imagine an off-the-dribble jumper being the difference.

Nigel Hayes, F, Wisconsin

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Hayes was not ready for this stage at this point last year. The then-freshman, who had seen his role expand as the season progressed, saw his play tumble in March before being given only seven minutes in Wisconsin's Final Four loss to Kentucky.

"Last year I just felt that I didn't contribute to help the team in the way that I should have," Hayes said, per Lindsay Gibbs of Sports on Earth. "All I had to do was to be average for us to win, and I was below average statistically."

A year later, Hayes was back on the same stage playing 37 of a possible 40 minutes while helping the Badgers atone for that defeat. The bulky forward scored 12 points and added five rebounds, knocking down threes and key free throws.

Hayes has also been a star on the mic. His compliment of an NCAA stenographer went viral earlier this month, and the outspoken forward has used that moment to continue flashing his personality in the press.

"Everybody wants to be around Nigel Hayes, his personality," Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan said. "But what Nigel Hayes wants to do is be the best player that's ever played the game."

Hayes has done his part stepping up on both ends of the floor in his second tournament appearance. He'll likely spend a ton of time trying to shadow Justise Winslow on Monday, so it'll be interesting to see what type of two-way game he turns in.

Bronson Koenig, G, Wisconsin

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Two years from now, we may look back and wonder if this tournament is where Koenig and Hayes got their start at being the next great Wisconsin leaders. The two sophomores have done a complete 180 from their first tournament outings, adding a level of consistency that wasn't there a year ago.

Koenig is the perfect role player on this team. He spaces the floor well, can take over primary ball-handler duties in a pinch and is a capable defender. Going head-to-head with Los Harrisons on Saturday, Koenig more than held his own against guards who are listed at three inches above his 6'3" frame.

It's Koenig's improvement that helped the Badgers overcome Traevon Jackson's absence.

"We didn't skip a beat just because Bronson is such a good passer and can get us into our offense so well," teammate Sam Dekker said, per Jeff Potrykus of the Journal Sentinel. "Trae has been supportive throughout this whole process. He's a great teammate and he's always been there for Bronson and for us...being a coach on the sidelines."

With Jackson back, it's created an interesting dynamic. The former starter has become the bit player while Koenig takes over the reins at point guard. We may see Ryan switch that formula up if Koenig struggles early against Duke. Or the first chapter on the next great Badgers star could be written.

We'll see Monday.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.