NCAA Tournament 2015: Latest Bracket Picks and Odds Advice Before Final Four

Just look at the cliff notes for the 2015 Final Four—Hall of Fame-caliber coaches, historically excellent programs with large and passionate fanbases, a handful of future NBA lottery picks, a dominant force in undefeated Kentucky and a No. 7-seeded Michigan State team playing the role of underdog perfectly as the basketball world descends on the Hoosier state.

Sign me up. In fact, sign everyone up.

Saturday’s action promises to be thrilling, and then we get to do it all over again Monday for the national championship game. Only one team gets its shining moment at the end of the tournament, but the journey is appointment viewing.

Here are some odds, courtesy of Odds Shark as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday, predictions, pieces of advice and under-the-radar players to watch for on college basketball’s grandest stage.

Matchup	Point Spread	Predicted Winner	Advice
Michigan State vs. Duke	Duke -5.5	Duke	Go with Duke. Michigan State simply doesn't have an answer for Jahlil Okafor's offensive game down low
Wisconsin vs. Kentucky	Kentucky -5	Kentucky	Jump on the points with Wisconsin even though Kentucky will win. This matchup is incredibly even, and the Badgers will keep it close to the final possession

Under-the-Radar Player to Watch in Each Game 

Duke vs. Michigan State: Amile Jefferson

You know the names for Duke. Jahlil Okafor could be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft and the best offensive player in the entire college game. Tyus Jones is the point guard who runs the show. Justise Winslow is the defensive superstar who has also found his offensive attack in the tournament. Quinn Cook is the cold-blooded senior who will drill critical shots when needed.

Don’t overlook Amile Jefferson in the matchup with Michigan State, though.

Jefferson is a fascinating player to watch in this game because he really can go either way for the Blue Devils. Mark Titus of Grantland noted that Jefferson didn’t exactly turn in a stellar performance in the regular-season showdown against the Spartans:

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But beyond that, Jefferson started out on Dawson in the November game and it went...not well. Dawson finished 8-of-10 from the field, scored 18 points, and grabbed nine boards. Since then, Coach K has moved to a smaller lineup with Matt Jones starting over Jefferson. With that lineup, Winslow often matches up against opposing power forwards, which means he’ll have to guard Dawson.

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If Jefferson struggles so mightily again Saturday, Duke could be in some trouble—or Mike Krzyzewski will simply sit him on the bench all night.

Karl B DeBlaker/Associated Press

On the other hand, Jefferson's role isn't nearly as prominent heading into the Final Four as it was during the first matchup earlier in the season. He can be a quiet contributor who spells Okafor for a few minutes to keep the star fresh for crunch time. He can also guard Matt Costello or Gavin Schilling with his athleticism and reach and help on the boards against a physical Michigan State team.

Assuming Winslow does spend most of his time guarding Branden Dawson, Jefferson will have less responsibility on defense and can provide help where needed against Michigan State’s playmakers.

Jefferson may no longer be in the starting lineup, but he is second on the roster in rebounds per game behind only Okafor, more than capable of guarding most of Michigan State’s bigs and can help clean up the offensive glass for some easy putbacks if the Spartans shift too much attention toward Okafor on one block.

This is not to suggest that Jefferson is going to rack up 20 points and 10 boards, but Duke will be even more difficult to beat than it already is if he turns in a solid performance down low.

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin: Josh Gasser

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The under-the-radar player in the Kentucky and Wisconsin clash could have been Nigel Hayes, but he has the opportunity to play a major role in this one as someone who can stretch the floor and force at least one of Kentucky’s bigs away from the basket. Hayes has also become a recognizable name because of his stenography adventures during this tournament.

Willie Cauley-Stein is more than capable of guarding Hayes away from the basket, but it takes Cauley-Stein away as a rebounding threat and opens up the lane for penetration and offensive boards.

While Hayes will play too large of a role to be seen as under-the-radar candidate, Wisconsin has another overlooked player who will impact this game in Josh Gasser. The sharp-shooter hit 38.4 percent of his three-pointers this season and two critical ones in the Elite Eight victory over Arizona.

Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports noted that there is more to Gasser’s game than just his shooting and passed along a quote from Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan in the process:

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Sure, Gasser does the little things. The gritty plays you would expect from someone like him. He dives for loose balls, and gives up his body to grab tough rebounds in traffic in a way his frame would suggest is impossible. But he also takes on the big tasks, like defending the opposition's best perimeter player every night. It's this type of effort that makes Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan love what Gasser brings to the table.

'Josh Gasser is a guy who, whatever the assignment is, he'll take it on,' Ryan said after the Badgers' 79-72 Sweet 16 victory over North Carolina. 'And he's never wavered. Never wavered at all.'

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Diving for loose balls, playing suffocating perimeter defense and making effort plays is almost the definition of an under-the-radar player who will make an impact on a game beyond the scoreboard.

However, someone has to hit some threes for the Badgers if the Wildcats direct the force of their stifling defense toward slowing down Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker.

Kaminsky was the Associated Press National Player of the Year, and Dekker is fresh off an incredible 27-point performance against Arizona that helped propel Wisconsin into the Final Four. Kentucky has to focus its attention on these two superstars if it hopes to continue its undefeated stretch, which means Gasser should have some open looks.

If he knocks them down, the Badgers could do the unthinkable and beat Kentucky.

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