How NBA Fringe Teams Can Kick-Start Their Playoff Runs
Mid-April brings more than just a filing deadline for income taxes, as it brings sea change in NBA competition, trading the doldrums of the regular season for knockdown, drag-out playoff intensity. Title contenders have sprouted in the Western Conference like dandelions, and the East has a few as well.
With 95 percent of the NBA regular season in the rearview mirror, the favorites appear locked in—namely, the Golden State Warriors and the team LeBron James plays for, followed by a half-dozen other hopefuls—but there's no telling when a lower seed could reel off a stretch of hot play and storm into June with plenty of momentum. (Just ask the 1995 Houston Rockets or 1999 New York Knicks.)
These teams currently on the fringe of the playoffs can focus on a specific factor to improve their chances of a memorable playoff run.
Brooklyn Nets
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The Eastern Conference playoff picture has a considerably larger fringe—like Zooey Deschanel's hair or certain types of cowboy jackets—compared to the West. Of the four teams that are vying for the bottom two postseason berths, no one has been hotter than the Brooklyn Nets, and they have their resurgent stars to thank.
After playing only 17 games last season, Brook Lopez has steadily worked his way back into the rotation, moving from the bench to the starting lineup. His minutes increased from the mid-20s for much of the season up to 32.4 minutes per game in March and 35.2 in April. His scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking have increased along with it, as has his shooting percentage. His torrid start to April saw him average 23.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in five games.
Similarly, point guard and team leader Deron Williams has returned to form in the timeliest of fashions. After shooting below 40 percent and seeing his scoring hover around 10 points per game for most of the season, Williams began April averaging 20.2 points on 49.3 percent shooting and 9.2 assists through five games.
The Nets appeared dead in the water when they began February 10 games below .500; then they went 18-14. They could well prove to be a playoff spoiler with their stars peaking at the right time, as shown in their 106-98 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 27—but Lopez and Williams must continue to perform at their zeniths.
Boston Celtics
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No one is quite sure why the Boston Celtics are playing well, and yet, like the selfie stick, they continue to enjoy an expected degree of success. After being 12 games under .500 on March 3, the C's compiled a 13-7 run to wedge their foot in the closing door to the playoffs.
Though it has seemed at times as if the Celtics exist solely to trade players and draft picks with the rest of the league (see, for example, Marcus Thornton, Rajon Rondo, Kris Humphries, Tayshaun Prince and Jeff Green), a credible rotation has jelled amid the deal-making.
The deadline trade that netted Isaiah Thomas is now paying dividends, as he returned from an eight-game absence and has shined as a scorer and distributor. Thomas excelled during a recent three-game stretch with 27.3 points on 56 percent shooting and 5.3 assists per game.
Add to that the continued solid play from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner, as well as the emergence of Tyler Zeller, and Boston makes for a pesky opponent.
But Thomas is the key for the C's in the postseason, because the 26-year-old combo guard can shoot from the outside, drive the lane and dish dimes. In his first 18 games with the team, he averaged a team-high 19.7 points and posted a 22.6 player efficiency rating, the best among all rotation players, via ESPN.com. He's the team's most dynamic weapon, and he'll need to continue his excellent play of late.
Miami Heat
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After Chris Bosh's scary diagnosis with a season-ending blood clot, the Miami Heat seemed dead in the water. But Dwyane Wade still has his championship experience and plenty left in the tank (if his left knee holds up), and the team struck gold with young retread center Hassan Whiteside (if he keeps his temper in check).
For an indication of Whiteside's impact, look no further than his April 4 game versus the Detroit Pistons: 13 points, 12 rebounds and six blocks. And that came after he gashed his hand open and required 10 stitches.
Things looked promising for the Heat when they notched consecutive home wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers in mid-March. Then they lost seven games in a nine-game span. The biggest problem has been their inconsistency on offense.
Prior to Bosh's injury, the Heat ranked 12th in assist percentage, which measures the percentage of a team's field goals that come from assists, via NBA.com. Since then, they've been 28th in the league. Without Bosh's ability to space the floor and score both inside and on the perimeter, the Heat offense has been ineffectual at times.
Point guard Goran Dragic has been a boon to the offense, averaging 16.6 points and 5.4 assists per game through 23 games, but his production has come in fits and starts.
The Heat could face the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. In Dragic's two games against the Hawks since joining the Heat, he scored just six points each time and combined for 5-of-18 shooting. But he also scored 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in the April 7 win over the Charlotte Hornets. As Forrest Gump would say, he's like a box of chocolates.
Offseason free-agent acquisition Luol Deng has been similarly unpredictable, scoring three points against the Indiana Pacers on April 5 and busting out for 21 against Charlotte two days later.
For the Heat to have any shot at making a postseason run, they must iron out the offense and score with more consistency and efficiency. Ball movement will open more quality opportunities, and for a team that averages more than 50 points per game combined out of Wade, Dragic and Deng, that should be enough to buoy Miami.
Indiana Pacers
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Somehow, some way, Indiana Pacers forward Paul George managed to return to the court on April 5 after suffering a compound fracture to his right leg during a scrimmage for the FIBA World Cup in early August. With such a nauseating injury, it's a testament to the human body's healing capabilities that he's intact and in game shape only eight months later.
Since returning to the lineup, George has averaged 11.5 points in 15 minutes per game over two contests—both much-needed Pacers wins. While he's only hit 37 percent of his shots from the field, he has showed adeptness both from behind the three-point line and in getting to the foul line. His minutes will be limited for the time being, and he's not up to the form that made him one of the league's finest two-way players in 2012-13.
This is the Pacers' "Willis Reed moment." Head coach Frank Vogel must set up George as an inspiration and an exemplar of the power of determination and hard work.
Power forward David West has struggled in George's absence, averaging 11.7 points per game this season, down 2.3 points from last year. March was his worst month of the season, both in terms of scoring (9.4 PPG) and shooting (45 percent). With George returning to the 3, even in limited minutes, it will help ease the burden.
With point guard George Hill leading the team both statistically and figuratively, the Pacers have relied heavily on their backcourt, including on C.J. Miles at starting shooting guard, as well as Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Watson off the bench.
The defense will be there for the Pacers, who rank sixth in the league in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, per NBA.com. The team must feed off George's presence, both in terms of his on-court contributions and the emotional lift of his stirring return. After all, this is a franchise that has reached the conference finals in each of the last two years.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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With reigning league MVP Kevin Durant (foot) lost for the season and defensive stalwart Serge Ibaka (knee) sidelined down the stretch, the Oklahoma City Thunder continue limping toward the postseason. Barring a scientific advancement giving the team Wolverine's healing powers—or his adamantium claws—OKC seems toothless, while other postseason opponents snarl.
The Thunder have played without Durant since Feb. 19, and Ibaka was lost on March 11. Even without two of their big boppers, it seemed the Thunder could weather the storm. They won six of the seven games immediately following the loss of Ibaka, and it appeared Russell Westbrook could carry them through. Then came a tough stretch of games against stout Western Conference opponents, and the Thunder wasted no time in losing six out of seven, plummeting back down to ninth place in the conference.
Since Durant is not walking through that door (at least not in uniform), Westbrook must play more efficiently and judiciously. Instead of making headlong drives to the rim like he's playing NBA Jam, he needs to slow things down, stop letting the ball stick to his hands and, most of all, avoid turning it over.
Westbrook has never averaged more than 3.9 turnovers per game over any season. Through 63 games in 2014-15, he's averaging 4.4 per game—and it's getting worse. Since the calendar turned to 2015, his turnovers have increased from 3.7 per game in January to 4.2 in February, cresting at 6.0 per game in March.
Despite Westbrook's stunning nine triple-doubles since Feb. 24, his team went 5-4 in those games. And with a paucity of scoring options on offense, his shooting percentage dipped from 45.7 percent in February to 40.3 percent in March. April hasn't been kinder, with 4.8 turnovers per game and 35.1 percent shooting during the four-game losing streak at the start of April.
The Thunder desperately need Ibaka to return, as his mid-range game can help space the floor and make Westbrook more of a facilitator than a dominator on offense.
New Orleans Pelicans
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United by the overwhelming skill of "The Unibrow," Anthony Davis, the New Orleans Pelicans have kept the pressure on the Oklahoma City Thunder for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference—and the terrifying prospect of playing the domineering Golden State Warriors.
The Pels nearly skidded off the road to the playoffs with a swoon in mid-March. It began with an overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets at home on March 15, followed by a one-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Then came a four-game losing streak, with three of those on the road, which dropped them 3.5 games behind OKC for a playoff berth.
While they've flapped their way back up to the eighth seed, the fact remains that the Pelicans struggle on the road (16-23). Their Janus-faced play at home and away was exemplified in a crucial late-season back-to-back. They gritted out a 103-100 win over the Golden State Warriors in New Orleans on April 7. The next evening, they suffered their worst loss of the season in a 110-74 drubbing at the Memphis Grizzlies.
Coach Monty Williams admitted after the loss, via NBA.com: "This was a game that they needed. ... Once I saw the defense in the third quarter, I knew our guys were just tired."
While being tired after battling the Warriors is somewhat understandable, April leaves precious little time to make up ground. The last time the Pelicans won on the road against one of the top seven playoff teams in the Western Conference came on Dec. 18 in Houston. Unfortunately, not having home-court advantage will necessitate their winning a road playoff game.
A win on April 12 at the Houston Rockets could do wonders for their confidence on the road, and Davis always gives them a chance to win (averaging MVP-caliber numbers with 24.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.5 steals per game through 64 contests), but the Pelicans may need a hypnotist to convince them that all away games are also played at the Smoothie King Center.
