NCAA Tournament 2015: Final Look at Bracket and Odds Before Final Four

Millions of busted brackets later, the NCAA tournament boils down to four survivors hunting for a national championship.

This year's Final Four offers superfluous star power, renown coaching and a quest for perfection. Lucas Oil Stadium will host two highly anticipated bouts on Saturday night, each featuring at least one top seed.

All four squads have had a week to prepare, so expect them all to enter with a calculated blueprint to victory. Let's travel the same road by identifying each squad's path to the championship game. 

Date	Game	Time (ET)	TV	Odds
Saturday, April 4	No. 1 Duke vs. No. 7 Michigan State	6:09 p.m.	TBS	Duke -5.5
Saturday, April 4	No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Wisconsin	8:49 p.m.	TBS	Kentucky -4.5

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Saturday at 3 p.m.

Keys to Victory

Kentucky: Keep Being Kentucky

Kentucky has knocked down every bystander in its path to perfection. The Wildcats don't need any tips for winning. Just keep doing you.

Against Wisconsin, they can't suffer any mental lapses or complacency if they want to stay undefeated. Their top defense will need to operate at full capacity against the Badgers' most efficient offense. 

Guard Devin Booker relayed the message head coach John Calipari sent them, per Rivals.com's Brett Dawson:

During an Elite Eight scare, Kentucky showed a second gear when tasked with a rare second-half deficit. It went the final 12 minutes without missing a shot, utilizing Karl-Anthony Towns with much more frequency down low. Take a look at his impeccable shot chart, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info:

If that offense shows up for 40 minutes, nobody in the world can take down the Wildcats.

Wisconsin: Dominate Downtown

Harry How/Getty Images

Had the fighting Irish enjoyed success behind the arc, they would have halted the Wildcats' winning ways. Instead, they went 4-of-14 from three-point range, limiting their second-rated offense to 66 points.

Kentucky boasts too much size to attack down low. According to ESPN College BBall, they hover over all but one NBA starting five. 

"

Only once this season has an NBA team (Utah on Jan. 22) started a lineup taller than Kentucky's starting five. pic.twitter.com/63mMThTOXr

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) April 3, 2015"

To become the one in 38-1, Wisconsin must instead drain its deep looks. It nailed a dozen threes against Arizona, orchestrating an 85-78 victory against one of the nation's toughest defenses. 

Sam Dekker has already converted 13 deep bombs while averaging 21.8 points per game this tournament, but he'll need to unearth one more revolutionary performance. Junior Josh Gasser, whose three-point percentage has dipped every year in Wisconsin, also proves a pivotal piece to the puzzle.

More known for an efficient but methodical offense, the Badgers have compiled 80.5 points per game through the tournament. Rather than trade blows in a slow-paced, half-court battle, they need to push tempo and fire away from deep.

Duke: Feed Jahlil Okafor

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

During Duke's first two tournament victories, Jahlil Okafor went 21-of-27 for 47 combined points. In the ensuing two tilts, he registered six points against Utah and nine versus Gonzaga.

The Blue Devils survived despite him fading to the background. In atypical fashion, the prolific offense slugged out two defensive battles. Yet it was alarming to see the potential No. 1 pick vanish against vertically gifted opposition.

Michigan State, however, does not brandish such size. No player is listed above 6'9", which will leave Duke's 6'11", 270-pound big man salivating for regular looks down low. As noted by Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry, Okafor finishes inside the paint with resounding efficacy:

When the Blue Devils and Spartans met on Nov. 18, Okafor converted eight of 10 field goals for 17 points. Like Towns, the future top NBA pick often looks capable of decimating a defense when given the green light. 

Come Saturday night, it's feeding time for Okafor. He'll carve up an undersized Michigan State team, forcing double-teams that will create open looks for Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow.

Michigan State: Maintain Improved Foul Shooting

JOE RAYMOND/Associated Press

Michigan State has won every tournament game by single digits. Despite a bulk of close wins, the Spartans wield a dreadful 63.2 free-throw percentage. Opponents, on the other hand, convert 72.9 percent of their foul shots.

The charity strike played a monumental role in Duke's November victory. While the Blue Devils recorded 20 free throws in 26 tries, the Spartans made only six points on the line through 10 attempts. 

Head coach Tom Izzo acknowledged his team's limitations to The Associated Press' Noah Trister.

"[Former Michigan State head coach] Jud Heathcote once told me, 'If you get the right guys to the line, you'll shoot better,'" Izzo said. "I don't think we have that opportunity or option all the time. It's not something we're worried about. We are what we are, and we'll go from there."

Had those problems surfaced against Louisville, Michigan State would not have edged out an Elite Eight victory. The squad went 15-of-20 on the line, needing every bit of that enhanced accuracy to survive an overtime bout.

A heavy underdog, the Spartans will have to pull another tight triumph out of a hat. Every point matters when routinely playing to the wire, so a few untimely free-throw misses could derail their Final Four run.

 

Note: Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com.