Kentucky Basketball: Predicting Who Will Stay and Who Will Go to the NBA

Kentucky may have come two games short of perfection after it lost a heartbreaker to Wisconsin 71-64 on Saturday at the Final Four, but the Wildcats still gave fans a hell of a ride throughout their amazing 38-1 season. This was an incredibly fun group to watch, a team of superstars who sacrificed minutes and ego in the name of winning.

But now comes the less fun part that Wildcats fans have gotten too used to: the annual post-season shedding of talent in order to make way for the new talent coming in. Last season was an anomaly, with six players coming back. Don't expect that again, though.

I was perfect in my predictions last year, even with my unpopular opinion that James Young was basically just Archie Goodwin on a better Kentucky team, so I'll try to keep the streak going.

Let's see what this year will look like.

Willie Cauley-Stein

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Plenty of people questioned Willie Cauley-Stein's decision to come back to school for his junior year, but you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who questions it now.

A first-team All-American now, Cauley-Stein went from a possible lottery pick to a surefire lottery pick. He improved his offensive game that, granted, went from "nonexistent" to "serviceable, I guess." But his defensive game went to a whole new level. WCS became a bona fide terror. Not only did he erase shots at the rim, but he was so athletic that he could be out on the perimeter guarding the other team's point guard and not miss a step.

As Andrew Sharp laid out on Grantland, rim protectors are becoming more and more important to NBA teams, and Cauley-Stein is exactly that. He's so valuable defensively that teams are willing to overlook his offensive limitations.

Should he go?

I said he should have gone last year, but it's even more obvious this year. Cauley-Stein put in his time and it paid off for him. He's a no-doubter.

Will he go?

Not even the unpredictable Cauley-Stein would come back to school for a senior year. God speed and good luck.

Alex Poythress

James Crisp/Associated Press

This is a tough one.

Will Alex Poythress be the first four-year player that John Calipari ever recruited at Kentucky? Or will Cal push him out the door on principle alone?

Let's look at the facts here. Alex Poythress is not an NBA player yet. Athletically, he's on another level, but the NBA streets are littered with athletic players who didn't have the skill to play at that level.

Poythress can't create his own shot, his three-point shooting has somehow gotten exponentially worse since his freshman year and even after an incredibly impressive showing in the Dominican Republic this summer, he continued to disappear for huge stretches of time.

However, he is a very good defender who can guard different positions. He also has a good instinct for the ball on rebounds and has the ability to dunk from just about anywhere inside the three-point line.

The question for me is: How much will another year in school help Poythress? Will he suddenly find an offensive game in his last year? Or will it just take another year away from his earning window as a professional basketball player? He'll get drafted, but even if he doesn't stick, he'll have a career overseas.

Should he go?

I'm torn here. I think Poythress is what we think he is, which means he should probably leave while he can. But the possibility of his taking his game to another level, Cauley-Stein style, might be worth sticking around for. I say he should stay.

Will he go?

I don't think so. I don't think Poythress feels like he's reached his potential, especially after getting hurt this season. I bet he stays and takes one last run at really improving before he tries his hand at playing basketball professionally.

The Harrison Twins

James Crisp/Associated Press

Like last year, I'm putting the Harrison twins in one slide because there's a zero percent chance that one of them leaves while the other stays, even if one of them may be more NBA ready than the other.

Sadly, that happens to be the case. Andrew Harrison has taken a bumpy road to get there, but he has weathered all the Kentucky-fan criticism to eventually live up to his billing as a great point guard. I still question his future as an NBA point guard, but there is nothing left for him at Kentucky.

Not only has Andrew gotten about as good as he's going to get, but if he came back, he would have to fight with Tyler Ulis and Isaiah Briscoe for minutes. I don't think even Calipari wants a backcourt that crowded.

Aaron Harrison is a different story. The streaky shooter had an even harder time finding his rhythm this year and didn't even make 32 percent of his threes. For a shooter, he's honestly not that great of a shooter. On the flip side, he did really improve all the other facets of his game. He's got a great pull-up jumper now, and his drives to the basket have gotten more controlled and effective.

Do I think Aaron needs another year at Kentucky? Probably. I think he can still get a lot better and won't face the kind of competition at his position that Andrew would if he comes back.

Should they go?

Yes for Andrew, no for Aaron. Neither are ready for the NBA, but at least Andrew's circumstances dictate that he basically has to. Not to mention he's definitely the better Harrison right now. Aaron still needs time to become the best he can be.

Will they go?

Yes for both of them. If there's one thing the Harrisons do not lack, it's confidence in themselves. They came back to prove themselves and to win a championship. Even if they didn't get that championship, they silenced their doubters and became centerpieces of a very special team.

Dakari Johnson

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Dakari Johnson and I have a messy relationship.

I've been a huge supporter of his from day one. I loved his post game. I loved the way he showed up this year in the best shape of his life. But then a funny thing happened as the season went on: Dakari got worse.

I swear, the man must be the most-blocked 7-footer in the country. After shooting 65 percent in his first 10 games this season, he's been just 45 percent from the floor since then. And remember, this is all coming from just a couple of feet from the basket. A big man that goes that long not shooting over 50 percent from the floor is a problem.

Not only that, but his defense is an issue as well. It's been very good near the basket, but Johnson is the one big man Kentucky can't afford to have guarding anyone out on the perimeter. The almost- backbreaking three that Jerian Grant hit near the end of the Notre Dame game? It was Johnson who got caught out of position as the shot clock wound down and futilely tried to run out and defend him.

I still like Johnson, but I'm being a realist here: He's got a long way to go.

Should he go?

No. Johnson will have another year to keep getting his body NBA-ready and work on his athleticism. Also, with no Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns in front of him, he'll be looking at more minutes.

Will he go?

Our own Jonathan Wasserman projects Johnson as a second-round guy. You can't teach height, and he is a legit 7-footer. I just think Johnson will thrive more in a less crowded front court and will want to raise his stock to that of a sure-thing first-rounder. No, he doesn't go.

Marcus Lee

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Marcus Lee has a lot of Alex Poythress in him. He's an incredibly impressive athlete, but his skill set is lagging behind.

Lee has had the misfortune of playing behind a lot of talented big men at Kentucky. Especially this year, both Cauley-Stein and Towns can do everything he does and more. With both of them gone, Lee will get more of a chance to show what he can do.

Of course, playing time is never a given at Kentucky. Skal Labissiere will come in and immediately compete for minutes. But regardless, Lee should have a better chance at making a difference next season.

Should he go?

No. Lee doesn't have anything resembling a polished offensive game yet. He needs to add some consistency there to become a legit NBA prospect.

Will he go?

The only reason I can see Lee going is if he is tired of being the odd man out in Calipari's rotating cycle of NBA-ready players coming through and stealing his minutes. But Lee seems like a smart kid. I don't see him making the jump if he's not ready.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

My editor is telling me that I can't just type "LOL" over and over again on this slide, so let's just make this brief.

Karl-Anthony Towns was not this dominant all year. In fact, for the first part of SEC play, there were times when he looked like Kentucky's seventh- or eighth-best player. He got lost on defense, played soft on offense and just generally looked clueless at times.

Then, something clicked. Towns suddenly realized his potential and went on a tear to become not only Kentucky's best offensive weapon but quite possibly the number one pick in the NBA draft. He's a legit rim protector with a soft touch and insane athleticism. Kentucky fans are just happy they got him for one season.

Should he go?

Yes.

Will he go?

Yes.

Tyler Ulis

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

When Calipari held his infamous combine for Kentucky players at the beginning of the season, it was none other than the 5'9" Ulis who apparently "won the combine." Ulis impressed scouts with his speed and pure basketball ability so much that they went home thinking a first-round pick wasn't totally out of the question for him.

I don't expect that to happen this year, but there is a chance that the guy Kentucky fans were stoked about watching for four years may not be around for all four.

Ulis slowed down a bit from his hot start to the season that had fans clamoring for him to start over Andrew Harrison, but he is still a great facilitator, a sneaky-good shooter and a tenacious defender.

Should he go?

If someone could guarantee that he'd be a first-round pick this year, I'd say absolutely, but I don't see anyone making such a claim. So it only makes sense for Ulis to come back next year and challenge Briscoe for the starting job.

Will he go?

No. It's not as far-fetched as people might think, but Ulis will be back in a Kentucky jersey next season.

Devin Booker

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Devin Booker is going to be a star in the NBA someday.

The amount of offensive weapons at this kid's disposal is just silly. He has such a sweet stroke from three (current mini-slump excluded), and he has the athleticism to hit a pull-up or drive through the lane for a dunk. Think Klay Thompson if his defense ever catches up.

Both Booker and Trey Lyles would have been national names if they had gone somewhere else where they could have been "the guy," instead of being mentioned as potential X-factors for the Cats among their harem of NBA talent.

Should he go?

Yes. Booker isn't going to prove himself any more than he did this year. I think the 11-game span when he went 23-of-38 from three was enough to get anybody's attention in the NBA.

Will he go?

Yes. Booker has the talent and the genes to play in the NBA, and he also has the confidence. As a projected borderline lottery pick, it'd be silly not to go now.

Trey Lyles

David Richard/Associated Press

Lyles has often been the forgotten weapon on this Kentucky team. He's just one shot ahead of Cauley-Stein for fifth-most attempts on the team. But when the Wildcats have needed him, he has consistently come through with his perfect 15-footer or a hard drive to the basket.

Playing the three this season, the 6'10" Lyles is bigger than just about anybody who matches up with him, and he takes advantage of that by driving to the basket or posting up. But he's athletic enough that smaller forwards can't abuse him with speed.

Lyles is perfectly content to sit back and let the game come to him and make plays when he is called upon. Unlike someone like Poythress, you never feel like Lyles is hiding; he's just biding his time. And NBA scouts certainly haven't missed him.

Projected to be a lottery pick, Lyles' talent and potential is evident, even if it's not on display 36 minutes a game.

Should he go?

Yes. As much fun as it's been to have a guy like Lyles just waiting in the wings whenever we need him at Kentucky, he's far too talented to need another year of school. He's still fairly raw, but not so much that another year at school is going to boost his draft status enough to make it worth it.

Will he go?

I can't see him staying. Calipari has a tendency to push kids out the door if they're going to be a lottery pick, unless, like Cauley-Stein, they're adamant about coming back. There's really no reason for Lyles to come back. He should be gone.