San Francisco 49ers: NFL Draft Big Board with One Month to Go

I think it’s fairly safe to say that since the last time we looked at the San Francisco 49ers’ 2015 NFL draft big board at the beginning of March, the team's situation has changed rather dramatically. 

At that point, the 49ers were planning to trot out Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman as starting linebackers, with Chris Borland backing them up and Michael Wilhoite being dangled as potential trade bait, per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.

How much difference a month can make. 

The 49ers went from being one of the most loaded teams at linebacker to one of the most needy. Seeing the team take two inside linebackers in the first four rounds wouldn’t be at all surprising at this point, replenishing the position with two top talents. 

That brings players who were afterthoughts before onto San Francisco’s radar—like UCLA’s Eric Kendricks or Clemson’s Stephone Anthony.

Other positions have seen their value drop on the big board.

The signing of Reggie Bush removes any need for a running back, depressing their value. That doesn’t mean the 49ers won’t draft a running back, just that they’d probably wait until a player had dropped significantly to make them a fantastic value.

However, with all that change, the top of the big board hasn’t changed all that much, frankly. 

The big board, ranking players from the San Francisco 49ers’ perspective, covers only the first two rounds, and there just aren’t a lot of inside linebackers or running backs in consideration for those picks. 

CBS lists only four inside linebackers worthy of a first- or second-round pick, and at least one of those is more of an idea for the end of the second round, rather than where the 49ers are picking. Running backs are slightly more prominent, but the 49ers didn’t have a huge need for the position before the signing of Bush, so dropping from little need to no need hasn’t exactly radically reshaped the board.

In fact, if anything, the need for a top-flight receiver has only been clarified by recent moves. 

Wilhoite might become the worst starter on defense if he’s forced into action, but he still proved his ability to start last season. Cornerback has holes with the losses of Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox, but the 49ers already have nine cornerbacks on the roster if you include last year’s first-round pick Jimmie Ward, so the odds are the 49ers will be able to find an answer in-house if they don’t use an early pick. 

The only thing they simply do not have is a game-changing No. 1 receiver, so that position remains all over the top of the big board.

As a reminder, first we’ll look at the overall big board. In theory, the players are ranked in the order that the 49ers would select them, were they all available. Then, we’ll take a closer look at each position and take a closer look at which players might be options in which rounds.

We’re listing 46 players, because the 49ers’ first two picks are in the first 46 selections of the draft.

Overall Big Board

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

USC's Leonard Williams

The top six slots haven’t changed at all since we looked last month, but several top-10 options have seen their value drop, most notably Michigan receiver Devin Funchess, who I once had as the fourth-best receiver in the class. Not so much anymore, as he keeps showing a lack of speed, poor hands and lack of vertical talent when compared to the top of the class.

Leonard Williams, the big defensive lineman from USC, remains the ideal pick for the team, though there’s no way he’s getting out of the top five picks.

1. Leonard Williams, DE, USC (Last time: 1)
2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama (Last time: 2)
3. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (Last time: 3)
4. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville (Last time: 4)
5. Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon (Last time: 5)
6. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State (Last time: 6)
7. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF (Last time: 26)
8. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State (Last time: 12)
9. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State (Last time: 7)
10. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri (Last time: 10)
11. Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida (Last time: 9)
12. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Florida) (Last time: 18)
13. Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska (Last time: 13)
14. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC (Last time: 24)
15. Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA (Last time: NR)
16. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State (Last time: 11)
17. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (Last time: 14)
18. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan (Last time: 8)
19. Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (Florida) (Last time: 41)
20. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington (Last time: 19)
21. Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri (Last time: 17)
22. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (Last time: 23)
23. Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State (Last time: 44)
24. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (Last time: 15)
25. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa (Last time: 22)
26. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU (Last time: 16)
27. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson (Last time: 20)
28. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia (Last time: 32)
29. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas (Last time: 30)
30. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota (Last time: 27)
31. Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia (Last time: 37)
32. Landon Collins, S, Alabama (Last time: 33)
33. Cameron Erving, C, Florida State (Last time: 34)
34. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford (Last time: 21)
35. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida) (Last time: 35)
36. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State (Last time: 39)
37. Carl Davis, DE, Iowa (Last time: 45)
38. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA (Last time: 28)
39. Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB, Washington (Last time: NR)
40. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin (Last time: 31)
41. D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida (Last time: NR)
42. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (Last time: 38)
43. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State (Last time: 46)
44. Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson (Last time: 47)
45. Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky (Last time: 29)
46. La’el Collins, OT, LSU (Last time: 42)

Dropped out: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut; Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas; Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska; Tre Jackson, OG, Florida State

Quarterbacks

6. Jameis Winston, Florida State
17. Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Neither of these players is going to be available when the 49ers are on the clock at No. 15, so it’s more or less a moot point to even list them, but here they are anyway.

If, somehow, Winston spiraled his way all the way back to pick No. 15, the 49ers would likely jump on him—or at least, extract a king’s ransom from a team desperately trying to trade up for him. 

Winston is Scout.com's top-rated quarterback since Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin in 2012; the kind of player who comes along only once every three or four years. I think the 49ers would rather roll with Winston on a rookie contract than Colin Kaepernick on his very large, if mostly non-guaranteed, contract.

I’ve become less and less enthused with Mariota as the draft process has gone on. Yes, he’s a physical specimen with great numbers in terms of speed and jumping ability and everything else you can measure at the combine, but I think he needs much more polish to perform at an NFL level. 

It would be best for him if he was picked by a team that was comfortable letting him sit for a year and work on his game. That could, actually, describe the 49ers, but even if he is available at pick No. 15, the 49ers would have better options.

Running Backs

28. Todd Gurley, Georgia
40. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

The addition of Reggie Bush means the 49ers no longer have any sort of pressing need for a running back, and there are enough teams who are considering these two players as first-round picks that neither are likely to fall to a place where their value is just so incredibly tempting that the 49ers would grab them anyway.

With that being said, I’m even more enticed by Gurley than I was at this point last month. As news comes in from Pro Football Talk that Gurley’s recovery from his ACL tear is coming along nicely, concerns about his NFL future begin to evaporate.

This isn’t a case like Marcus Lattimore, when he wasn’t remotely ready to start moving by the point of the NFL draft; it looks like Gurley will be ready to go immediately upon entering the NFL. He might be the single most talented athlete in the entire class.

If the 49ers hadn’t drafted Carlos Hyde in the second round last season, maybe I could see the 49ers getting into the mix for Gurley with their first-round pick. As it stands, however, other running back-needy teams will get to him long before the 49ers would start considering him. It’s too bad, as I think he’s poised to have a great career.

I’ve become less enthused with Gordon as time has gone on. 

Yes, he’s put up phenomenal numbers and shown the ability to carry the ball plenty, but he received a lot of work in college, carrying the ball 343 times last season.  Carlos Hyde, by comparison, carried the ball only 208 times in his senior year.  I’m a bit concerned about that workload, as he’s already taken a pounding at the college level. 

It doesn’t quite reach the “curse of 370,” where NFL running backs tend to fall apart, but it’s just enough to bump him down a couple rungs on my list when coupled with fumble issues and poor pass protection. 

I’d still love him in the second round, but he’ll be gone before then.

Receivers

2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
3. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
4. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
7. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
8. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
9. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
10. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
12. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Florida)
14. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
18. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
30. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
43. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State

Yes, I still think receiver is the best use of the first-round pick, unless a great defensive end or the top quarterback in the draft somehow spirals down to the 15th overall selection. 

Torrey Smith is a fantastic deep-threat, but he’s not an overall No. 1 receiver yet, and may never develop into one. Anquan Boldin is not long for the NFL; this could be his last season. Both Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton have shown promise, but don’t have the same ceiling as a first-round pick would have.

The biggest riser in this group has been Breshad Perriman, who has shot up into my top 10. I was concerned with his route running and hands, as well as the level of competition he faced at UCF.

However, the more film I’ve seen on him, the more intrigued I’ve become. At his pro day, he ran a nigh impossible 4.25 40-yard dash.  At 6’2”, 212 pounds, that’s insane—the fastest time ever recorded at the combine is 4.24 seconds, by Chris Johnson.

Now, that time has to be taken with a grain of salt. It was hand-timed, which shaves a few fractions when compared to electronic timing, and it was done on his home practice field under conditions he controlled, rather than a neutral site like the combine. Still, even if it’s “only” a 4.4-second run, that’s insane speed. 

Perriman also received the third-highest “playmaker score,” devised by Football Outsiders. This factors in college production, usage, scouting consensus and vertical skills, and attempts to decide the odds of the player succeeding in the NFL. It has generally been fairly trustworthy—the top six all-time players in the score are Randy Moss, Demaryius Thomas, Terry Glenn, Larry Fitzgerald, Charles Rogers and Calvin Johnson. 

It’s not a be-all and end-all stat, but, when coupled with that blazing speed, his high level of college production and sheer physical measurables make him an enticing prospect.

The biggest faller is Devin Funchess—essentially, Funchess and Perriman have switched places in my rankings. Funchess is kind of in an awkward spot as a tweener—is he a tight end or a wide receiver? He had a fantastic pro day, improving from his disastrous 4.7-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but going back and looking at the tape, he just didn’t impress me as much as others. He’s never scored more than six touchdowns in a season, and has never topped 750 receiving yards in a season.

Just because there are nine receivers in the top 15, however, doesn’t mean I necessarily think the 49ers should sit at No. 15 and take the highest available receiver.  Some of these players will be available much later. We can split them into groups, courtesy of the fantastic Bayesian Draft Analysis Tool at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com, in terms of odds of when they’d likely be available, and where the 49ers could pick them up.

Out of reach: Amari Cooper, Kevin White
Maybe available at pick No. 15: DeVante Parker
Probably available at pick No. 15: Breshad Perriman, Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham
Probably available at the end of Round 1 with trade down: Devin Smith, Maxx Williams
Probably available at pick No. 46: Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess
Probably available at the end of Round 2 with trade down: Phillip Dorsett
Probably available at pick No. 79: Tyler Lockett

In short, then, if the top five receivers, Leonard Williams, Arik Armstead and Jameis Winston are all off the board in the first 14 picks, the 49ers should try to trade down to the end of the first round to get some value for their selection.

Offensive Line

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Iowa's Brandon Scherff

25. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
33. Cameron Erving, OC, Florida State
34. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
35. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida)
41. D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
42. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
46. La’el Collins, OT, LSU

The 49ers need a guard, thanks to the departure of Mike Iupati and the impending free agency of Alex Boone. They have some options at the position already, working with Brandon Thomas, Marcus Martin, Daniel Kilgore and Joe Looney, but some added talent at the position would be helpful.

Sadly, there isn’t really a guard worth taking in the first couple rounds. Some project Brandon Scherff as capable of moving inside, but we don’t really know where he’ll really succeed in the NFL. It might be at left tackle, where he won the Outland Trophy as the best college lineman; it might be as a more solid right tackle, due to his lesser length, or it may be inside as a guard, where he played freshman year. 

I think he’ll succeed at some position in the NFL, but if he ends up as a tackle, the 49ers are sort of full up at the moment. He’s likely gone by pick No. 15 anyway, but that’s why he has a lower ranking on my board than on some others. If you think he’s a natural guard, bump him up into the top 10, just under Breshad Perriman.

None of the other names on the list seems likely to be able to move inside to guard, so they all make the list simply because this is a talented offensive tackle class. Teams looking for a tackle can find a number of first-round-caliber players here—Scherff, Peat, Flowers, Clemmings and Collins all seem like first-round quality players to me. 

The 49ers are set there with Joe Staley and Anthony Davis, though, so they won’t take advantage of the first-round bonanza.

Defensive End

1. Leonard Williams, USC
5. Arik Armstead, Oregon
11. Dante Fowler, Florida
23. Preston Smith, Mississippi State
37. Carl Davis, Iowa
38. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA

The hard part about grading defensive ends is that you really have to pay attention to what system they fit in. 

Dante Fowler, for instance, is probably more of an outside linebacker in the 49ers’ 3-4 system, which depresses his value somewhat. Many 4-3 teams might consider Carl Davis as a defensive tackle before thinking of him as an end, and Owamagbe Odighizuwa doesn’t really fit a 3-4 at all, which is good news for my spell checker.

Arik Armstead is the highest-rated player on my board who I believe will be there at pick No. 15. Williams, Amari Cooper and Kevin White should all be long gone, and it’s looking like DeVante Parker might slip away somewhere around pick 13, just out of range for the 49ers. 

Armstead, on the other hand, is just raw enough to cause teams ahead of the 49ers to pass, and just talented enough to be intriguing to San Francisco as a replacement for Justin Smith. His value increases if Smith returns for another season, as it would give the very raw Armstead time to learn at the back of the rotation, rather than being thrust into a starting role in 2015.

Armstead’s already a top run-stopper who will swallow up tackles with his 6’8”, 285-pound frame. He’s not really a pass-rusher yet, but that’s not his primary function as a 3-4 end. Giving head coach Jim Tomsula Armstead and letting him mold him into a superstar is probably Armstead’s best-case scenario as well.

If the 49ers pass on Armstead, then their best-case scenario is probably hoping Preston Smith falls back to their second-round pick. Smith has the long arms that Trent Baalke is known to covet, measuring in at 34 inches at the NFL combine. 

He doesn’t have the pass-rush moves either, which makes him fit better in the 49ers’ 3-4 system than in a 4-3 look where he’d be asked to provide pressure on the quarterback. He’s a sound tackler who can win at the point of attack to stop the running game, and is ticking up after a very solid pro day. If he slips to the 49ers’ choice at No. 46, he’d be a great pick.

Defensive Tackle

22. Danny Shelton, Washington
29. Malcom Brown, Texas
36. Eddie Goldman, Florida State

The 49ers do not need a nose tackle. If anything, they are too full at the nose tackle position, with Ian Williams and Glenn Dorsey both capable starters, assuming the stars ever align and they are both healthy at the same time.

That being said, Jim Tomsula views his linemen as somewhat interchangeable—Quinton Dial, for example, plays both nose tackle and defensive end for the team, and would be part of the rotation if Justin Smith did retire.  

None of the top three defensive tackles jumps out to me as someone who would play end in a 3-4 system, as they all tip the scales at 320 pounds or more, though Malcom Brown seems to have the highest probability of being able to handle multiple spots. That’s really what the 49ers would be looking for in this pick—someone who could plug-and-play anywhere along the defensive line.

None of the three is likely to be available with the 49ers’ second-round pick, so the question is whether taking a defensive tackle who might be able to play at end is worth it with the first-round pick. I think, in general, the answer is no, unless the 49ers trade down to do so.

I’d rather have a prospect like Armstead who needs more polish but is a more natural fit at end than a more ready player who would have to make a position change.

Inside Linebacker

15. Eric Kendricks, UCLA
19. Denzel Perryman, Miami
44. Stephone Anthony, Clemson

The departure of Willis and Borland means this group gets its own slide for the first time. Kendricks and Anthony are entirely new to the list, while Perryman was hiding in the 40s the last time I ranked the players; that’s how much the 49ers’ need at the position has changed in the past month.

None of them, however, really seems worth the 49ers’ first overall pick at No. 15—there’s just not the sort of talent at the top of the draft to justify such a pick. Mock drafts and the like have Kendricks available at the end of Round 1, Anthony available with the 49ers’ pick at No. 47 and Perryman going toward the end of Round 2. The 49ers could trade back and get some value, in other words.

Kendricks is my favorite linebacker overall. He’s a little small, at 6’0" and 232 pounds, and he’s lacking a little of the explosiveness you’d like to see out of him, but he’s a very, very productive tackling machine.  Kendricks led the nation in solo tackles in 2014 with 101 and did the same in 2012 with 91. 

He has the same level of play recognition and diagnosis I saw in Chris Borland last season, but with better coverage abilities. He’d be my top pick for the position, though I’d much rather have him by trading up into the upper 40s rather than using a first-round pick on him.

Perryman comes second, as he’s a little smaller than Kendricks, at just 5’11”, without much of a burst. I don’t know if he can become a three-down player in pass coverage, either. However, he might deliver hits better than any of the other inside linebackers in the class, and can get around blockers to deliver those blows. His NFL combine wasn’t great, but he has enough on-field tape to be worth taking.

I prefer Anthony as my third inside linebacker when compared to, say, Mississippi State’s Benardrick McKinney or TCU’s Paul Dawson. He’s more your prototypical size for the position, at 6’3” and 243 pounds with plus athleticism. He has the speed to go sideline to sideline and is probably the best coverage linebacker in the draft, which is important considering the Seahawks just added Jimmy Graham. 

He needs some more polish when it comes to his read-and-react ability, but that’s work that can be done as he gets up to NFL speed.

Outside Linebacker

13. Randy Gregory, Nebraska
21. Shane Ray, Missouri
27. Vic Beasley, Clemson
31. Eli Harold, Virginia
39. Hau’oli Kikaha, Washington
45. Bud Dupree, Kentucky

If the 49ers want a pass-rusher to go along with their Triple A set of Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch, then they’d be best to grab one in the first two rounds, as the position seems somewhat loaded this season.

Four or five sack merchants may go in Round 1, so if the 49ers want to improve on their 36 sacks from a season ago, or purchase some Aldon Smith insurance, they’ll find a crowded market.

If Randy Gregory falls to the 15th pick, he’s definitely worth looking at. He failed a drug test for marijuana at the combine, which is certainly not a good thing. That might make the 49ers hesitant, thanks to already having one outside linebacker in the substance abuse program. 

However, the team did just sign receiver Jerome Simpson, who was suspended last season after drug charges. People also have the 49ers considering Dorial Green-Beckham here, who has much worse red flags than Gregory. All in all, he’s probably worth the risk at 15, though the 49ers have more pressing needs elsewhere.

I probably over-ranked Bud Dupree last time, thanks to a sparkling combine. Dupree put up a 42-inch vertical leap and a 4.56 40-yard dash, and it’s very easy to let those sorts of numbers distract you.

Going back to watch him with those numbers in mind, I didn’t see much of that speed or athleticism actually during games—at least, not as much as I would expect. Part of that is because he has a tendency to take suboptimal angles in the pass rush, only to let his raw athletic talent overwhelm his opponents. That’s not going to work in the NFL. 

If he slipped to the second round for some reason, he’s got enough raw talent to be interesting, but I think his combine has pushed him higher than I’d be willing to take him at the moment.

Defensive Backs

16. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
20. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
24. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
26. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
32. Landon Collins, S, Alabama

Quite a few mock drafts have the 49ers going with a defensive back in the first round, which makes sense—after all, they did just lose Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. 

Sports Illustrated’s Chris Burke has them taking Waynes, and Rob Rang of CBS agrees. Pete Prisco of CBS has them taking Peters, and so forth—you can find quite a few names out there taking picks this early.

I’m not so sure I agree. First of all, three of the defensive back spots are filled with Tramaine Brock, Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea, so we’re looking at two cornerback spots, including the nickel, for positions of need. 

On the roster already they have, from the 2014 draft, first-round pick Jimmie Ward, fourth-round pick Dontae Johnson, fifth-round pick Keith Reaser and sixth-round pick Kenneth Acker, as well as free-agent signing Shareece Wright and the re-signed Chris Cook. That’s actually quite a full roster as it is, and the odds are at least a couple of those players step up to produce in 2015.

Yes, if the 49ers didn’t need a receiver, and if Borland and Willis had not retired and if Justin Smith comes back and Mike Iupati had been re-signed, then maybe cornerback would have been the team’s most pressing need, but they just have enough holes elsewhere that they might just lean on their depth here in 2015. After all, had they not had so many players, perhaps they wouldn’t have let Culliver or Cox go in the first place.

That’s not to say the 49ers couldn’t pick a cornerback in the first round, just that I don’t think they’d do it without making a move back and filling another position of need at roughly the same time. It might be more likely that they draft Kevin Johnson or Jalen Collins at the end of the first round than grabbing Waynes or Peters at pick No. 15.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.