Ranking the Top 5 Free Agents for Miami Heat to Pursue During 2015 Offseason
Despite boasting a 34-41 record, the Miami Heat are actually set up very well for the future.
The Heat have top-shelf talent in Dwyane Wade, Hassan Whiteside and Chris Bosh, an innovative coach in Erik Spoelstra and the luxury of playing in the Eastern Conference.
Heck, if not for injuries to Bosh and Josh McRoberts, there's a very good chance this team would be a top-four (or better) seed this season.
Even so, Miami has some holes to shore up in free agency before it can be considered a true title contender. Not only does it have to take care of the contract of its star point guard, but it also has to find a wing to back up Luol Deng, preferably one who can both shoot and defend.
The Heat don't have a ton of money to throw around, according to HoopsHype, but with some luck, they'll be able to sign a player or two to bolster the 2015-16 roster.
5. Dorell Wright
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If there's one thing the Heat need, it's shooting. Miami's wings (the ones on next year's roster) are hitting a combined 33 percent from deep. The team could desperately use an off-the-bench shooter to help space the floor for its stars.
Dorell Wright would be great in that role. He's shooting 39 percent from deep for the Portland Trail Blazers, and well over half of his attempts come from behind the arc. He admittedly doesn't do much else offensively, but to his credit, he doesn't try to. Nearly 80 percent of his shots come after zero or one dribbles. If he doesn't have a good look, he'll immediately move the ball along.
Wright has played the 4 in the past and could easily fit next to Bosh in Miami's small-ball units. That might not be necessary with McRoberts healthy, but it's nice to have that flexibility. He's been a fun pick-and-pop option in the past, and he's good at sneaking away from bigs for open threes.
Defensively, Wright's also fairly solid. ESPN's real plus-minus system ranks him as a slight positive on that end, and he has the size (he's 6'7”) to switch off on most 4s and hold his own on the block if need be.
But perhaps the biggest reason Miami should make him a top target comes down to money. There are better three-point shooting wings on the market (Mike Dunleavy, for instance). But Wright can likely provide most of what they would at a fraction of the cost. That's huge.
The Heat have a lot of contracts expiring soon, per HoopsHype. They can't afford to tie up mid-level money on a player who might get only 10 or so minutes per game. Wright would be a perfect addition in that sense.
4. Al-Farouq Aminu
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Al-Farouq Aminu has a 2015 player option, per HoopsHype. And based on the way he's played this season, he'll be looking to secure a long-term deal this summer.
Unlike everyone else on this list, Aminu is an awful shooter (he's hitting just 26.5 percent from deep this year). But he more than makes up for his lack of range on the defensive end. He's a long-armed terror and one of the most versatile defenders in the league.
The Dallas Mavericks have asked Aminu to check virtually every position on the court at times this season, and he's done an admirable job of that. He's quick enough to guard most wings—though speedier guards can give him trouble—and big enough (he's 6'9”) to check power forwards on the low block.
That kind of flexibility is critical in Miami's defense. Surviving failed pick-and-roll blitzes requires perfect rotations from the Heat's remaining three defenders. Aminu is the ideal guy to have hanging back in those situations, someone capable of jetting to a corner shooter or protecting the rim from the weak side.
Aminu's also not an offensive zero, despite his lack of shooting. He's a sneaky baseline cutter and a very strong offensive rebounder for a wing. He can also do some damage off the bounce, especially when he's being guarded by slower forwards at the 4.
3. Gerald Green
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For a team in need of shooting, it doesn't get much better than Gerald Green.
Green is only hitting 34 percent from deep this season, but he's a career 36.6 percent shooter and made an even 40 percent of his attempts last year. A lot of his poor shooting is due to some ill-advised pull-up jumpers. He's connecting on 41 percent of all spot-up attempts, putting him in the league's 86th percentile in that category.
He's also putting up shots from beyond the arc at an outrageous rate. He's taking 9.6 threes per 36 minutes, the third-highest rate in NBA history. This admittedly isn't always a good thing. He's an unrepentant gunner and has no problem letting contested threes fly even if there may be better options available.
But when he's hot, his shooting alone can win games.
He would also pair really well with Goran Dragic. They were great together offensively with the Phoenix Suns, especially in transition. Dragic loves to run, and Green would be a fun above-the-rim target for him to play with on fast breaks.
The big issue for Green is defense. He's objectively terrible on that end.
ESPN's real plus-minus system pegs him as one of the worst defenders in the league, and the Suns are getting killed defensively when he's on the court. The Heat would have to do some tinkering to come up with lineups that could defend adequately with him on the floor.
2. Wesley Matthews
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Even after injuring his Achilles tendon, Wesley Matthews is slated to get a pretty big deal this offseason. The Heat probably won't be able to afford him unless something zany—like Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade opting out of their deals—happens. But he's a great player and would be perfect in Miami.
Matthews is a career 39.3 percent three-point shooter, and he is just as dangerous pulling up from deep on pick-and-rolls as he is spotting up from outside. He's also one of the league's very best at moving without the ball, creating potential three-pointers with timely cuts to the corners or top of the arc.
He's not just a shooter, however. He can create some offense off the dribble (though he doesn't do it all that often) and is a fantastic post player. Over 14 percent of his possessions are post-ups, and he's shooting an even 50 percent from the low block. He's got a ton of moves and counter moves down low and uses his size (he's 6'5”) to bully smaller defenders.
Having a guard capable of posting up is useful, especially one who can pass like Matthews. As Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney recently pointed out, defenses are sometimes clueless when it comes to defending guards down low. He wrote:
"Even at the highest levels of basketball, many teams still don't quite have a feel for how to respond to a guard posting up. Responsibilities are shuffled. Help sometimes comes too quickly or too desperately. It's a scenario that feels uncomfortable because it's unfamiliar, and players like Matthews take full advantage.
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Some teams like to throw their biggest wings on Wade to prevent him from dragging smaller guards to the block. They couldn't do that so easily with Matthews on the floor.
To top it all off, Matthews is also a stout defender. He's strong enough to take on bigger wings, and opponents are shooting nearly four percent lower than their season average when he defends them.
Again, this is a long shot. But even so, Matthews should be one of Miami's top targets.
1. Goran Dragic
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The Heat invested a lot in bringing Dragic to Miami. They can't afford to lose him this summer.
Dragic is one of the best point guards in the league and has been great in his short time with the Heat. He's averaging 16.2 points and 5.3 assists per game on 58.4 percent true shooting.
The Heat are still tinkering with how to best use him, but he's already getting into the paint and causing havoc. Over 42 percent of his shot attempts are coming directly at the rim (a massive number for a guard), and he's connecting on 68.8 percent of those.
But he's not just finishing on drives to the basket, he's also dishing for corner threes or tossing dump-off passes to bigs for easy dunks. He's creating 11.7 points per game when he drives to the rim, one of the best marks in the league.
Dragic is particularly dangerous on the Heat's weak-side give-and-go plays. He's such a crafty finisher at the rim that he's almost always able to fool the opposing big for an easy layup. And when teams send help defenders, he's typically able to hit open cutters.
The one thing that the Heat do have to work on is the dynamic between Dragic and Wade. Miami has been great offensively with the two on the court (they've been killed defensively, but a big part of that is injury-related), but the offense is still very Wade-centric.
Dragic is using just 22.2 percent of Miami's possessions, a very low mark for a star point guard. Wade is using 34.7 percent of the Heat's possessions.
The South Florida Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman recently wrote:
"With the Heat, it seems like if he doesn't score in transition, that he is just one of an equal number of options in the offense, like Friday, when three teammates, with Henry Walker again among them, getting more shots. If Dwyane Wade wants to keep Dragic happy and keep him as a teammate, it might not be a bad idea to defer to him every now and then.
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This isn't a huge deal as long as the Heat offense keeps humming. But distributing shots just a little better could make them even more dangerous on that end.
All statistics accurate as of 4/2/2015 and courtesy of NBA.com/Stats or Basketball-Reference unless stated otherwise.
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