March Madness 2015: Updated Bracket, Odds and Predictions for Final Four

If you were to sit down every college basketball fan in the country and ask them to pick their dream Final Four, odds are good a majority would say Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke and Wisconsin.

These four teams present the perfect storylines to pick apart, with the big villain going for perfection (Kentucky), another villain in a potential underdog situation (Duke), the underrated team with a legendary coach (Michigan State) and the budding power with two legitimate superstars (Wisconsin). 

With two days left until those four teams take center stage in Indianapolis, the butterflies and nerves will start setting in for the players. Outsiders continue to look over the stats and odds to figure out what is going to happen. 

To help ease your burden, here's a handy guide for what the oddsmakers are saying and final predictions for the madness. 

Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Spread	Prediction
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 7 Michigan State	6:09 p.m.	TBS	Duke (-5)	Duke, 66-62
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Wisconsin	Approx. 8:49 p.m.	TBS	Kentucky (-5)	Wisconsin, 69-65

Duke vs. Michigan State

It's a strange world when Tom Izzo is considered an underdog, especially in the NCAA tournament, but that speaks to the level of respect for Mike Krzyzewski and how far this Duke team has come. 

The Blue Devils have actually played better in March by not showing the offensive firepower they did in the regular season. They averaged 80.6 points per game during the season, but have scored 68, 63 and 66 in their last three wins. 

Duke's Sweet 16 win over Gonzaga was the most enlightening for this team. It held one of the best scoring teams in the nation to 52 points on a night when it only shot 37.5 percent from the floor and Jahlil Okafor had nine points. 

One thing that's been abundantly clear in the tournament is Justise Winslow has become Duke's most important player. Mark Titus of Grantland went so far as to say the Blue Devils star needs to be talked about going higher in draft conversations:

"

At this point, I’d even be fine with someone explaining why Winslow doesn’t belong in the discussion for the top pick. I just want to hear “Winslow” and “top pick” in the same sentence. I mean, he’s teammates with a guy everyone assumes will be the no. 1 overall pick, yet Winslow has been Duke’s best player in the tournament.¹ He’s built like a tank, he plays both ends of the floor, and for all the concerns about his outside shot, he’s already a better shooter than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will ever be.

"

Okafor is going to pad his stats because there aren't many players who can guard a 7'0" post player in college basketball, but Winslow is the player Krzyzewski wants taking a key shot in the final moments. 

On the Michigan State side, Izzo does get all the credit, but let's mention the players. The Spartans defense has been insane in the tournament, holding Virginia to less than 30 percent shooting in the round of 32 and destroying Louisville in the second half, via Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel:

Now, the defense is how Michigan State wins because the offense doesn't bring much to the table. The Spartans shot just 42.5 percent in the win over Virginia and 43.3 percent against Louisville. 

That's where the separation in the game comes from. Even though Duke doesn't have much depth, its starting five is so good at getting to the basket that it doesn't need a lot of contributions from the bench. 

Michigan State needs to be on point defensively, or else it will struggle to win games. That was the case against Louisville, which had an eight-point lead over the Spartans at halftime and had a chance to win the game despite making five field goals in the second half. 

Even if Okafor has another off night shooting, he's got the luxury of being able to kick the ball out to Winslow, Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook and Matt Jones. Michigan State doesn't have that shooting touch from anyone. Travis Trice is the go-to guy, but he's been erratic shooting at 25-of-59 (42.3 percent) in four tournament games. 

No one denies that Trice is capable of putting things together in a big moment, as Brad Galli of WXYZ-TV in Detroit noted on Twitter:

This is the first game of the tournament when Michigan State is clearly the worse team. Credit the work of Izzo and his players for finding their stride at the right moment, but Duke will put together a strong performance against the Spartans to secure a spot in the title game on Monday. 

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

As you can see from the predictions above, this is where I expect Kentucky's dream season to end. It has nothing to do with the close call against Notre Dame or the pressure of going undefeated. Wisconsin is just a better team. 

Now, the Wildcats have more talent and it would in no way be a surprise if they won this game or the national title. Yet look at what Bo Ryan's Badgers did against an Arizona team that was considered one of the biggest threats to Kentucky. 

Here's how good things are going for Wisconsin: Frank Kaminsky is probably going to be named Player of the Year for his efforts this season and has been terrific, averaging just under 23 points per game in the tournament, but he's clearly been the second-best player in the last four wins because Sam Dekker is playing out of his mind, via ESPN College Basketball:

"

Sam Dekker has gone for 20+ points three times in the NCAA Tournament, matching his total from the regular season. pic.twitter.com/iyrSigpCUY

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 31, 2015"

There's also the fact that Ryan belongs in the conversation of best coach in college basketball. He's built Wisconsin into a national power with back-to-back Final Four appearances. Kaminsky raved about the difference Ryan has made on him as a player, via Myron Medcalf of ESPN:

"

He knows how to get the best out of us, from the time we step on campus to the time we're seniors. He really makes a commitment to us. It's hard to put into words how much he actually does for us, because you start to realize in these times how much he has an effect on us, the way we say things, the way we do things on the court, how we interact with each other. It's really just a true, great program.

"

Now, John Calipari isn't a slouch as a head coach. There's no denying that he's the best recruiter in the business, but his work in getting this year's Wildcats to play as one with so many players fighting for their NBA future is special. 

When Kentucky was in trouble late against Notre Dame, it went 9-of-9 in the final 12 minutes. This team isn't going to panic in big moments, yet there's also a reason to expect Wisconsin can retaliate from a big haymaker, via Lance Allan of NBC Milwaukee:

This is going to be a classic showdown between the nation's two best teams. Kentucky's perfect record has given off the illusion it's a perfect team, even though Notre Dame proved that wasn't true. Credit the Wildcats for responding to adversity, as we tend to examine a close win as a sign of trouble instead of a positive. 

In terms of X's and O's, Wisconsin can attack offensively by spreading its offense out to keep Kentucky's bigs from getting comfortable on offense. The Badgers do have to shoot well from three-point range, as they did against Arizona, to win and get major contributions from starters outside of Kaminsky and Dekker. 

Fortunately, Josh Gasser proved he can shoot in a key spot, Nigel Hayes has made big plays in the tournament and Bronson Koenig isn't afraid to attack the rim as a way to draw fouls. 

It will take a perfect effort from Wisconsin to defeat Kentucky, but the way this team is going, it's capable of doing that. Forget words like destiny and fate, the Badgers are just a great team on their way to playing for a national title.