March Madness 2015: Bracket Predictions, Odds Tips for Sunday's Elite 8 Schedule

Sunday’s slate of Elite Eight games in the 2015 NCAA tournament is so enticing that the No. 2 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs are something of an underdog story.

That may not be the case in terms of the seeding, but Duke, Michigan State and Louisville are all in the top 10 when it comes to the most Final Fours in history, per Sports-Reference.com, and all boast legendary coaches on the sidelines.

The fact that Mark Few, who has done incredible things at Gonzaga, is the undercard to Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino is a testament to the excellence that will be on display Sunday. With that in mind, here is a look at some of the essential information for Sunday’s schedule of games.

Sunday Elite Eight Schedule and Odds

Matchup	Time	TV	Odds
Michigan State vs. Louisville	2:20 p.m. ET	CBS	Michigan State -2.5
Duke vs. Gonzaga	5:05 p.m. ET	CBS	Duke -2.5

*Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Saturday at 3 p.m. ET.

Predictions

Michigan State vs. Louisville

In theory, a clash between a No. 4 seed and a No. 7 seed in the Elite Eight would be a surprise. However, there isn’t much of a surprise when those two teams are Michigan State and Louisville and the two coaches are Izzo and Pitino. 

John Gasaway of ESPN Insider passed along some of the head-turning numbers when it comes to the two coaches, while Mike Greenberg of ESPN Radio used those numbers to back up his assertion that these two coaches are in a class of their own:

While Pitino and Izzo will certainly leave their fingerprints all over the outcome of this game, their players are going to need to do the winning on the court.

Both teams have weaknesses that they have overcome throughout the tournament—Louisville is a mediocre 64th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted offensive efficiency rankings (as of Saturday afternoon), while Michigan State is shooting an abysmal 62.8 percent from the free-throw line this season.

To their credit, the Spartans drilled six free throws down the stretch of their Sweet 16 victory over Oklahoma, while Louisville has made timely offensive plays in its first three wins in this tournament.

Still, the ultimate difference in this matchup will be Michigan State’s defense against the Louisville offense. It will be a slow-paced, half-court grind of a game (as of Saturday, Michigan State was 254th in Pomeroy’s tempo rankings, while Louisville was 164th), which means the team that makes the critical stops down the stretch will walk away with the victory.

Heather Ainsworth/Associated Press

The Michigan State defense is playing at a high level and is yet to allow more than 63 points in a single tournament game. That, along with the inconsistency that plagued the Louisville offense throughout the year, will lead to a Spartans victory.

Outside of Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell, the Cardinals do not have enough playmakers to create offensive opportunities down the stretch of a physically grueling game against a Michigan State defense that is playing well. Look for a back-and-forth affair that comes down to the final possessions, but Izzo will head to the Final Four. 

Prediction: Michigan State wins.

Duke vs. Gonzaga

Don’t just assume Duke is going to win this contest because it is the more storied program or has a handful of future NBA draft picks on its side with Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. Gonzaga has plenty of firepower of its own and lost a whopping two games this year, one of which came in overtime at Arizona.

Kyle Wiltjer is an elite scorer who can light it up from three-point range, mid-range or by attacking the basket. Kevin Pangos is the facilitator who also does plenty of scoring of his own, and Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski are wizards with the basketball down low when it comes to footwork, soft touch and the ability to create openings for teammates with low-post passing.

The Blue Devils are going to have their hands full.

They will be motivated, though, given Quinn Cook’s comments, via Roman Stubbs of The Washington Post:

"

We’re ready, focused, and locked in. The guys are locked in. We’re not satisfied with getting to the Elite Eight. We really wanted to be here and it is definitely an honor … we’ve been to the eight and watched Louisville celebrate. How joyous that was and how hurt we were. We have our hands full against Gonzaga.

"

The Bulldogs may be talented, but Duke is going to win this contest, and not for the reason you may think. Few teams in the country were as effective on the offensive side of the ball as the Blue Devils were this season, but they are finally starting to win with defense in the Big Dance. Long gone are the days this team couldn’t stop dribble penetration against the likes of Miami and North Carolina State.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

C.J. Moore of Bleacher Report put Duke’s recent defensive surge into perspective: “For three NCAA tourney games, Duke has held opponents to 0.86 points per possession, per KenPom.com, a number that over the course of the season is almost Kentucky-esque.”

The formula for beating Duke all season has been to outscore it. Sure, most teams failed to do so thanks to the likes of Okafor down low and a number of effective perimeter shooters, but Duke certainly didn’t seem invincible given its problems on defense.

Now that those problems appear to be gone, the Blue Devils could well be the best team in this tournament outside of mighty Kentucky. They can fill up the stat sheet with an elite offense (that is rated No. 3 in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings, as of Saturday) and now have a solid defense to pair with it. 

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

That type of balance is hard to find, and Gonzaga is simply going to be outplayed Sunday because of it. College basketball may just get that Kentucky vs. Duke showdown in the championship game after all.

Prediction: Duke wins by pulling away in the last five minutes.

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