Why Thiago Is Bayern Munich's Player with Most to Prove in Final Weeks of Season

Last season, Bayern Munich were able to play hardball over the contract extension of Toni Kroos primarily due to the fact that Thiago Alcantara was well on his way to matching the Germany international's class in the same position.

According to journalist Raphael Honigstein on Twitter, Kroos wanted a deal with wages in the region of Arjen Robben, Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger (€7 million, €10 million and €10 million respectively, according to a report in German tabloid Bild) but less than the club's top earner, Mario Gotze (€12 million).

The German giants' inability to reach an agreement with Kroos is now widely regarded as a colossal failure. Part of that is due to the club's wage bill rising to new records in any case, with the ageing Lahm and Ribery being given bumper new contracts to make them the club's top earners alongside Gotze well into their 30s. Thomas Muller and Manuel Neuer were also given raises to €10 million per year (all figures via Bild).

Considering their massive payout for Gotze, who signed shortly before his 21st birthday, and the extensions granted to other star players, Bayern clearly could have afforded to keep Kroos. Their revenue hit a record high €528.7 million in 2013-14, per Sport1 (via Sports Business Daily). Negotiations nonetheless broke down, allowing Real Madrid to swoop and sign the player to a six-year contract that could well see him spend the prime of his career at the Santiago Bernabeu.

In return, Bayern signed the now-33-year-old midfielder Xabi Alonso, who has, in fairness, generally played well. There are, however, serious questions of whether he can play effectively alongside Schweinsteiger—Bayern's record in games in which both have started reads two wins, two draws and two losses—as well as how long he can expect to deliver at the highest level, considering his advanced age.

According to figures from Bild and Transfermarkt, Bayern made a €20 million profit on the sale of Kroos and purchase of Alonso, giving Alonso wages comparable to their former star's alleged demands. Perhaps good business for a selling team, but not the kind that's becoming of a top side.

Yet although Alonso is the player who is most often attributed with the role of replacing Kroos, he was never meant to be. That role was for Thiago who, a year younger than the German, had made big steps in his career during the first months of the 2014 calendar year.

Although still raw in some ways, he'd settled in quite well at Bayern and was eager to take on responsibility. In fact, in a match against Eintracht Frankfurt he set a Bundesliga record with 177 touches of the ball, which has since been beaten by Alonso, per ESPN. And his last-minute, game-winning bicycle kick against Stuttgart made him a fan favorite at the Allianz Arena.

But there was always going to be some risk in Thiago. The youngster had always been in Xavi's shadow at Barcelona and only played a limited role in Catalonia before stepping into the spotlight at Bayern. Part of that was due to his susceptibility to injuries. Before moving to Munich, he'd twice suffered knee injuries, each of which had kept him sidelined for two months.

In August of 2013, shortly after joining Bayern, he sustained an injury that kept him out for about three months. Then, last March, he suffered a knee injury that has twice relapsed and kept him out of action for more than a full year.

As yet, there's little for Thiago to show from his time in Munich. Per the aforementioned Bild wage report, his transfer cost €25 million and the player himself has earned about €14 million in his 21 months at the Allianz Arena, yet only has around half a season's worth of games under his belt.

Gero Breloer/Associated Press

It's wrong to blame a player for being injured, and if anything, Bayern are responsible for taking a risk that has, thus far, not paid off. But for the sake of his club and his career, Thiago is now obligated to do everything he can to turn things around—he's been afforded too much goodwill and there has been too much investment in him.

It's going to be very difficult for Thiago after a year on the sidelines, and it would be a mistake to expect too much of him. It takes time to develop form and confidence. 

Thiago can look to Ilkay Gundogan, who missed well over a year, as an example. And as Holger Badstuber will attest, having suffered a serious thigh problem shortly after coming back from consecutive cruciate ligament injuries, it's very easy to reach the physical breaking point after spending so much time on the sidelines.

In Gundogan's case, his first months back were marked by inconsistency with the occasional flourish of class. Thiago has less than two months left to show himself in the 2014-15 campaign, so it's that kind of performance he should be targeting.

With a 10-point lead over Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga table, Bayern have all but wrapped up the German league title. They can afford the inevitable slip-ups from Thiago that will come with his return to action, and his inclusion will actually help keep the likes of Alonso and Schweinsteiger physically fit for the games that matter most.

Not only for Bayern and his teammates but himself, Thiago needs some good performances before season's end to rebuild his confidence and prepare him to take on every challenge that will come next season.

The process of regaining composure and rediscovering his on-pitch abilities should come now rather than at the beginning of next season, when Bayern will not have the points advantage they now enjoy. The Bundesliga could be a much more competitive environment next season, and as Schweinsteiger and Alonso advance in years, Thiago will be needed. Bayern will need him to hit the ground running.

Looking around the Bayern squad, there are several players who are under pressure as the season draws to a conclusion. Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski are certainly among them—the former especially, having failed to live up to expectations after almost two seasons at the Allianz Arena.

Arguably, however, the most important long-term piece of the puzzle is Thiago. For his own good and for the good of Bayern Munich, he needs to prove to the world that the decision to let Kroos go and put faith in him was the right one. And he needs to show, at least intermittently, that he still has the quality to be a world-class player. The future of the Bayern midfield was once on Kroos' shoulders; it's now up to Thiago to show he can bear the burden himself.

@Mr_Bundesliga